The winner of the NL Central Saint Louis Cardinals will travel to Los Angeles to face the NL West winner in the Dodgers for Game 1. Who has the edge? (All stats via MLB.com unless otherwise specified)
NLDS Cardinals vs Dodgers Preview
Starting Pitching
It’s no secret that the Dodgers have the best pitcher in baseball when it comes to Clayton Kershaw. But, that doesn’t necessarily mean they have the advantage in the entire series. Here’s what it breaks down as:
Game 1- Wainwright (STL) vs Kershaw (LA): As great as Wainwright has been, anyone would be crazy to bet against Kershaw at this point. AD- LA
Game 2- Lynn (STL) vs Greinke (LA): This might surprise some people, but if you look at the second half of the season Lynn outperformed Wainwright. AD- STL
Game 3- Lackey (STL) vs Ryu (LA): Lackey gets the nod simply for playoff experience. AD- STL
Bottom Line: The Cardinals have a good problem in which they have too many pitchers to choose from. AD- STL
Bullpen (Stats courtesy of Rotogrinders.com)
This looks to be pretty clear cut to me. Statistically, Saint Louis has the advantage here. With a lower team bullpen ERA (2.70) and a closer who’s fourth in saves in Trevor Rosenthal (46), the Cardinals are able to pass the ball to a fairly young group of arms. With the likes of Michael Wacha possibly joining that crew, it can only go up from there.
The Dodgers have a respectable pen (2.89 ERA and 43 saves), but we are simply talking numbers for the time being.
Bottom Line: Too many arms in the Saint Louis pen to keep up. AD- STL
Infield Defense
We have vastly different infields to dissect here. For starters:
Catcher: I don’t care who they are playing, no one will ever have a defensive advantage at catcher over Yadier Molina. Case closed. AD- STL
First Base: Adrian Gonzalez is a former Gold Glover and has been as stable as expected. Adams is improving, but is still not elite. AD- LA
Second Base: This is really a battle of speed. Kolten Wong and Dee Gordon can both flash the leather, but Wong is injury prone and Gordon has vastly improved up to a .981 fielding percentage. AD- LA
Shortstop: Jhonny Peralta is sure-handed, but Hanley Ramirez has twice the range and arm. AD- LA
Third Base: Juan Uribe has been in the business for a long time for a reason. Matt Carpenter has played well in his first season at the hot corner, but Uribe has the consistency. AD- LA
Bottom Line: The Dodgers have the legs and guns for the infield, easy choice. AD- LA
Outfield Defense
This would have been a much different answer if you would have asked me a month ago.
Left Field: Carl Crawford has the wheels and a fairly strong arm. Holliday catches everything hit at him, but lacks the range. AD- LA
Center Field: I honestly don’t know why anyone runs on Puig anymore. Tracking-wise, though, I do believe the Cardinals have the advantage with Jon Jay. It’s a very close call, but Puig is to exciting to watch to pass up. AD- LA
Right Field: Matt Kemp is an exceptional fielder, except he’s lost a step or two. Randal Grichuk has been more than impressive in the field since he took over for Oscar Taveras. I’ll go with the name here, but I could be incredibly wrong about this pick. AD- LA
Bottom Line: These are two very talented outfield defenses, be ready to watch some incredible plays. AD- LA
Batting Order
1. Matt Carpenter may not be the fastest leadoff hitter, but he makes contact and is frustrating to pitch to. He also has the ability to drive in runs (59 RBI) late in the game. Despite having a higher average (.289), I don’t think Dee Gordon possess that quality. AD- STL
2. Yasiel Puig is hot and cold while Jon Jay (.303) seems to be more consistent. I’ll bet on the side that Puig catches fire in the series because he’s as dangerous as anyone when it happens. AD- LA
3. You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone hotter than Matt Holliday (14 of 20 HR post All-Star Break) the second half of the season. I’ll take him over Adrian Gonzalez just for momentum’s sake. AD- STL
4. The battle of the Matts. Kemp (25 HR) has played better recently, which is much better to say than Adams. Adams had a hot start but fizzled towards the end of the season. AD- LA
5. The shortstops battle has a lot of power between Jhonny Peralta and Hanley Ramirez. Peralta finished with 21 home runs and is deserving of the nod here. AD- STL
6. Carl Crawford has been to spotty and hasn’t played enough games to show me he can perform over Yadier Molina. AD- STL
7. Yes, Uribe has been around awhile, but Grichuk has been sensational since taking over the starting position. He has the most upside here. He has the nod. AD- STL
8. AJ Ellis is known for his defense for a reason. Kolten Wong showed signs of pop (12 HR) out of the second base position. He could be the spark this lineup needed. AD- STL
Bottom Line: If the Cardinals can figure out this rotation of the Dodgers, they should have no trouble putting up a lot of runs. AD- STL
Advantages and Vulerability
St. Louis: Their biggest advantage is Yadier Molina. He has already won two World Series with this team. The starting rotation and actually the whole pitching staff is in his hands. Their biggest vulnerability is their lack of consistency. We saw it heading into the playoffs after they nearly lost the division title. They need to be on every night.
Los Angeles: Confidence. They know they have the talent and the arms to get this thing done. Vulnerability? Plate Discipline. They need to work Wainwright and Co. and take them deep into at-bats or they will have a field day with their lineup.
History
These two historic franchises met in the NLCS last season with the Cardinals coming out on top. The biggest surprise was the emergence of Michael Wacha, as he did the unspeakable by outdueling Clayton Kershaw, twice.
Bottom Line
It’ll be more interesting than last season’s series, but with the same result. This Cardinals ballclub refuses to go away and have all the right tools in all the right places. If they can steal one win away from Kershaw, they’ll be looking at more baseball up ahead. Cardinals in 5.
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