If you don’t know already for anyone in the fantasy business this is a very important time of year. If you are lucky enough (and good enough) to be chosen to write about one sport (like I am with football) rather than all the sports, which so many have to do to be in this business, this is the time you get to put up.
Fabber’s Believe It or Not, Week 1 and camping!
So as always I do a mini family vacation before school starts and before week one of the NFL. This year would be the first year my daughter and I ever went camping. I mean real camping, no cabin, no AC, no restaurants, I mean pretty much nothing that I like about vacation except time with the family. I would think you wouldn’t need that much to do a camping trip, well that might be true.
We had essentials, the tent, fire wood, sleeping bags, and marshmallows. We also made sure to include a million versions of bug repellent of which none of it was strong enough to keep them from sucking my blood like a character in that awful TV show, True Blood. I have over two dozen bites and that is not a lie. I was going to include a picture of each one but my editor said no go on that idea. Back to where I was, so we load up the SUV and travel to the tent site singing the family song,” All About the Bass” (amazing tune meaning daughters favorite).
The camping trip was pretty amazing, we cooked on the open fire, which makes you feel mighty manly even when you mess it up pretty horrific like yours truly did. We played UNO, my daughter’s favorite card game, a hundred times. A long game of war followed and I kept the streak alive of never losing a single game of war! We made s’mores, shared laughs, and made memories that will last a lifetime.
You know there has to be a “but” coming for this to be in this week’s column and here it is. Let’s put the Twilight bugs behind us if I can because I am still itching all over. My wife, bless her soul, got me a Spiderman sleeping bag (Yea the same woman who tells me to grow up). Do not get me wrong this sleeping bag looks amazing but its paper tissue thin. I could feel the roots underground while lying on top of it. We didn’t pack anything else to go under us, which didn’t bother my wife who got herself a grown-up extra cushion sleeping bag, made for sleeping out. Needless to say she slept like a baby while I laid there starring at the side of the tent till five in the morning when I finally fell asleep. I got a whooping TWO hours of sleep till the breakfast wake-up yell was heard across the whole camp ground.
What I learned was that I packed a lot of the things I wanted but not much of the things I would need. My mind set of fun lead to one rough night of sleep and talking everyone out of staying the other night and leaving at 11pm. That is right, call me any name you want but if I slept there again my back would have locked up like the Tin Man in the Wizard of Oz. I should have packed an air mattress or extra padding for underneath us. I should have got better quality bug repellent so I wouldn’t have to use cheesy vampire movie references. I planned but I didn’t plan well.
You should use this in fantasy as well, plan you draft out to be useful through the year not just a killer line-up for week one. Study the waiver wire with possible great match-ups. Look for trades that help you for the year. Basically what I am saying is be prepared. Rule number one in my 12 steps to fantasy greatness article you can find right here on LWOS. Have a strategy with backup plans in case something off the wall happens like it always does. Hopefully you will plan better than I did camping and don’t have to leave the season early (I hate when people stop caring about their team during the season).
Every week on Thursday I will bring you Believe it or not and the only place you can find it is LWOS. You will not here me talk about the obvious studs because there is no point in selling the known. If you have LeSean McCoy or Drew Brees or Calvin Johnson and are thinking about not keeping them in your line-up you should let someone take over your team. Another rule in that article is always play your studs. So listen to Nike and me and just do it. I will talk about guys that you might be on the fence about and guys who will exceed your expectations. I will also tell you in the Not section of the article guys who I would pass on or will score less than expected this week.
I have always told you and will continue to tell you to not just take my word for it. Look at all the info you have time for and make your decision and enjoy. I have looked through more stats then most know exist but this isn’t a science. There is always a chance it could go south or the ball just doesn’t bounce your way. Relax, it is ok and the best part is there are many weeks left to get it going. The champion is not crowned on week one, it’s a long race so just keep it moving. Thank you for reading and as always Good Luck!
Believe
QBs
Colin Kaepernick SF, 26 points: He is going up against Dallas with something to prove, do I need to say more?
Tom Brady NE, 25 points: They will start off fast and aggressive as they normally do in New England. These two teams combined for 44 points in each contest last year. They will put up points and I am sure Brady will have something to do about it.
Tony Romo DAL, 23 points: I have been high on the Cowboys offense all offseason. New offensive coordinator, bad defense and a gun slinger at the helm equals fantasy love. Sure he might throw an interception to end the game but before that he will tally up points.
Carson Palmer ARI, 22 points: San Diego’s defense should be pretty solid but that offense in year two could be almost unstoppable. They have the weapons to make some noise and they will prove it on Monday night.
RBs
Andre Ellington ARI, 15 points: He will be used in the pass and run game making him a duel threat. No team will be able to stack the box against that pass game. Also I straight love this man.
Chris Johnson NYJ, 13 points: They are playing Oakland. Rex loves the ground and pound. Johnson is fresh and ready to prove something. Jets need to control the clock and ware that defense down.
Stevan Ridley NE, 11 points: Yes he is so untrustworthy but this game he will do enough to earn a spot. New England will stay balanced and Ridley will do well playing the Robin role off of Vereen.
Mark Ingram NO, 11 points: We will soon find out what I have been saying for the whole off season, Ingram is the man now. Thomas will be used as a sproles type back and Ingram will be the bruiser back with the most rush attempts.
WRs
Michael Floyd ARI, 14 points: Fitzgerald still gets all the attention but all Floyd does is put up numbers. Remember last year Floyd had more receiving yards with less targets his way. Man is going to be famous!
Roddy White ATL, 13 points: A better line to give Matty Ice time. A healthy body and mind and he got his partner back in the school yard, Julio Jones. This will lead to a good year for this player and a solid week one.
Julian Edelman NE, 12 points: Heck if it is a PPR league it will be more than 12 points. Tom Brady loves this guy and Miami hates the short routes. This is a recipe for a good game.
Jeremy Maclin PHI, 11 points: Welcome back Mr. Maclin, oh how us fantasy players missed you. This man was a steal in the draft and he will show why week one. Close to DeSean Jacksons speed with twice his hands. He also runs great routs and is a fabulous fit in this offense.
TEs
Zach Ertz PHI, 12 points: You have heard whispers of this players ability and his name but now we will witness his talents first hand. He is a great safety valve for Foles and looks to be a focal point in the red zone. All things you love to hear as a fantasy owner who got him in the later rounds of your draft. Now enjoy your smart drafting.
Jason Witten DAL, 11 points: I know I was not high on this player coming into this year but for this match-up he is a good play. Romo still loves and trusts him. If Romo finds his way into trouble you can beat he will be looking for this player. The 49ers defense is not what it was, expect good numbers this game.
Jordan Reed WSH, 10 points: Another great TE you can get in the later rounds. He will be single covered by a defender all the time and it will not be a defensive back on most of them. This could be another breakout candidate this year.
DEF
Lions 13 points
Steelers 12 points
Bears 11 points
Kicker
Phil Dawson SF 13 points
Brandon McManus DEN 13 points
Nate Freese DET 12 points
NOTS
QBs
Robert Griffin III WSH, 19 points: Yea I saw him limping already makes me very nervous.
Cam Newton CAR, 18 points: He has been hit more than any other QB since he entered the league. That takes a toll on the body and the mind, ask David Carr. He also got a new receiving core and a patch work of an offensive line. Sorry owners beware.
Phillip Rivers SD, 16 points: Playing Arizona, that defense can play. We might see the Rivers of two years ago return.
RBs
CJ Spiller BUF, 9 points: He has a tough match-up where they will stack the box early and often. They also use at least three other backs in the plan. If Buffalo gets down early it might be worse than I think.
Ben Tate CLE, 8 points: Pittsburgh will make them pass the ball which will limit Tate. He also has a rookie breathing down his neck for carries in West. This could be a bad case to show he is the main man in Cleveland.
Rashad Jennings NYG, 7 points: He is not the best back on this team. That offense looked so bad this preseason I would be scared to start anyone on it. They need to prove it before I buy it.
WRs
T.Y. Hilton IND, 8 points: He will be treated like the number one receiver this year for the whole year and Denver has something to prove against this team. Denver’s defense is much improved and they want to show us week one. Bad draw for this player and the entire Colts team.
Victor Cruz NYG, 8 points: A new system, a bad Offensive line and a QB who looks like he lost his ability to throw a good ball. Yes this offense looks that bad right now. Give it time, maybe but I will wait to see that before playing him.
Mike Wallace MIA, 6 points: New England brought in a guy named Revis, he used to have an island named after him. He wants to prove he is still that guy and unfortunately for Wallace, he will be his first victim.
TEs
Greg Olsen CAR, 8 points: Until this new receiving core shows they can catch passes in NFL games Olsen will be treated like a Number one option. This should hurt his numbers early in the year.
Jordan Cameron CLE, 7 points: I keep hearing the same line, who else will they throw to?!?! Well I will ask who else will the defense cover?!?!? Yea maybe they will cover the second best option now that the first is gone.
Kyle Rudolph MIN, 7 points: I love this guy for the year and hate him for week one. Rams can play solid defense and make it very difficult to let the Tight-End run out without any blocking. This will throw off the timing and make it harder to be involved.
DEF
Rams 8 points
Browns 6 points
Kickers
Nick Novak SD 7 points
Graham Gano CAR 6 points
