This year’s controversial, thrilling, exciting, dramatic, brilliant IndyCar series season is coming to a close. We have just one race left to decide the Champion, and 103 points separates five drivers from four teams with only the double points race at Fontana to run. 104 points are available, but due to the scoring system, only three drivers from two teams have a realistic shot at the title. One thing we saw from last year is that the attrition rate for this rate can be incredibly high. Just five drivers finished the 250-lap race on the lead lap last year. Will Power won the race, his first on a big oval, and victory again this year will clinch a well overdue title. Here is a look at the 2014 IndyCar Title contenders:
Main contenders
1st – Will Power (AUS) – Team Penske – 3 wins – 626 points
Three time series runner up Will Power has certainly had a mixed bag this year. A couple of brilliant wins at Detroit and Milwaukee as well as a controversial one at St. Petersburg as well as four further podiums coincide with numerous drive through penalties, usually for pit-speed violations. He has also been involved in contact with his team mates, which Power rightfully took the blame for. In the event of any tiebreak, Power will win the title, due to his high number of second places. He has had a largely good season, and has already won on a short oval this year. He also is the only title contender yet to retire from a race this year. He has finished runner-up three times in the past, is he en route to a title at last? I think he could well be.
2nd – Helio Castroneves (BRA) – Team Penske – 1 win – 575 points
Helio Castroneves has had supreme consistency this year. Two second places in the other double points races this year has certainly helped him, as well as a win at Detroit. He has three other podiums on top of that but being out of the top 10 in the last four races has seen his championship challenge derail. He has finished second or third in the series on no less than six occasions in the past and is desperate for his first series title to go with his three Indy 500 crowns. He needs a massive result at Fontana, and will need team mate Power to have a poor race to have a real chance at the championship. 51 points is the gap.
3rd – Simon Pagenaud (FRA) – Schmidt Peterson Motorsports – 2 wins – 545 points
The ever impressive Frenchman still remains with a chance at the IndyCar title, despite not running with a top team. Two wins, one at the Indy Road Course and another on the streets of Houston are the only times that Pagenaud has finished in the top three this season until Sonoma last time out. His consistency has been excellent but he has been involved in two very costly incidents too. Being 81 points behind it is highly unlikely that Pagenaud will steal it. He will need to certainly need to improve on his best oval performance this season, which is fourth. His public falling out with Will Power, however, will surely put some fire into the Frenchman as he targets his first IndyCar title.
Outsiders
4th – Ryan Hunter-Reay (FLO) – Andretti Autosport – 3 wins – 534 points
Despite 3 wins this season including the Indy 500, Hunter-Reay’s bad luck and at time questionable driving means that he is 92 points behind Power. If Power starts the race in Fontana, he will not win the title.
5th – Scott Dixon (NZL) – Target Chip Ganassi Racing – 2 wins – 523 points
Dixon’s late charge means that he is currently 103 points behind. If Power simply takes to the track in qualifying, Dixon will be unable to win the title.
Mathematical permutations:
Will Power needs to win the title:
Anywhere between first and sixth will guarantee the title, regardless of bonus points, or where anybody else finishes.
If Power is seventh, Castroneves not winning or gaining one or less bonus points will guarantee the title.
If Power is eighth, Castroneves not winning or gaining three or less bonus points will guarantee the title.
If Power is between ninth and 13th, Castroneves not winning will guarantee the title.
If Power is 14th with no bonus points, Castroneves finishing second with three or less bonus points will guarantee the title.
If Power is 15th and Castroneves is second, Power must have no more than one less bonus point to win the title.
If Power is 16th and Castroneves second, Power must have at least one more bonus point than Castroneves.
If Power is 17th and Castroneves second, Power must have three more bonus points than Castroneves.
If Power is 18th, Castroneves must be third or lower for Power to win the title.
If Power is 19th, Pagenaud comes into play. If Castroneves is third or Pagenaud is first, one bonus point would guarantee the title for Power.
If Power is 20th, having no more than one less bonus point than Castroneves if third and Pagenaud if first will guarantee the title.
If Power is 21st, having one more bonus point than both Castroneves if third and Pagenaud if first will guarantee the title.
If Power is 22nd, he will need three more bonus points than both Castroneves if third and Pagenaud if first to win the title.
Helio Castroneves needs to win the title:
First and Power eighth, provided Castroneves scores the same number or more bonus points,
Second with Power 16th or lower, provided Castroneves scores the same number or more bonus points,
Third, if Power is 21st and Castroneves scores more bonus points than Pagenaud and at least the same number of bonus points as Power,
Fourth with four bonus points if Power is 22nd with no bonus points and Pagenaud second or lower.
Simon Pagenaud needs to win the title:
First, with Power 22nd with no more than two bonus points and Castroneves third provided Pagenaud has no less bonus points than Castroneves. My pick? Will Power.
So there you have it, on Saturday night, or Sunday morning at 2:30am if you’re on my side of the pond, this truly fantastic IndyCar season will come to a close. Who will be champion? Be sure to leave your picks in the comments.
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