Conference realignment continues in the ACC, where Pitt and Syracuse have transferred from the former Big East. Will realignment have any effect on the standings in the near future?
Boston College
Eight starters, including senior QB Chase Rettig and two of his top targets, return on offense. That’s pretty much the extent of good news for the Eagles. Senior Andre Williams is the only experienced running back on the roster, and both tackles are being replaced. Rettig is on his fifth offensive coordinator, and some growing pains are to be expected as the Eagles get accustomed to a new system.
Last year’s defense ranked at or near the bottom of the ACC, and in some cases the nation, in several major statistics. Both Northwestern and Army gained over 500 yards on BC. Eight starters return, but just one in the front four. Four of those starters are defensive backs, so pass defense may be less of an issue this year.
Kicker Nate Freese was solid in 2012, and Spiffy Evans was an effective return man on both kicks and punts.
Prediction: The Eagles are an average team at best, with a schedule that includes road games at USC, Clemson, and Syracuse, plus Virginia Tech and Florida State at home. I can’t see them getting to .500. 4-8.
Clemson
ACC Player Of The Year and First Team All-American QB Tajh Boyd returning for his senior season is excellent news for the Tigers. Boyd threw for 3,896 yards, 36 TDs, and just 13 INTs last season. Senior Roderick McDowell will replace Andre Ellington in the backfield, and junior Sammy Watkins – he of the phenomenal freshman season in 2011 – should step-up with DeAndre Hopkins in the NFL. Watkins will have help from 6’5” Martavis Bryant. In addition, four starting offensive linemen return to a team that averaged over 500 yards of offense in 2012.
Only one member of the defensive line won’t return this season, and his replacement had eight sacks with limited playing time last year. All three starting linebackers return as well. The secondary was the Tigers’ Achilles’ heel last season, playing very well at times and very poorly at others – the fact that just one starter returns may not be such a bad thing. If the DBs can be more consistent, this defense has the potential to be very good.
Chandler Catanzaro missed just one FG last year. Bradley Pinion is likely to be the punter and kick-off man.
Prediction: The Tigers’ schedule isn’t brutal- they get Georgia and Florida State at home, but they face South Carolina on the road. They should win the ACC Atlantic handily at either 11-1 (my prediction) or 10-2.
Florida State
Head coach Jimbo Fisher announced yesterday that freshman Jameis Winston will get the nod at quarterback over sophomore Jacob Coker. The ‘Noles return two RBs who played very well last year in juniors Devonta Freeman and James Wilder Jr. Wilder had some legal issues last year, but it appears he will play. The receiving corps is deep and experienced, even though only one starter is returning and senior Greg Dent is suspended indefinitely for off-the-field issues. Add in four returning starters on the line, and the only real question on this offense is the quarterback.
More replacements are needed on the defensive side of the ball, with just four starters coming back, but the projected starters include just two sophomores and no freshmen. The most noticeable difference will likely be at DE, where both 2012 starters were among the best in the country at the position. The linebacking corps includes just one returning starter but several upperclassmen. Three starters return in the secondary, which was a strength last season.
Redshirt freshman Roberto Aguayo replaces departed All-American kicker Dustin Hopkins. Cason Beatty returns as the punter.
Prediction: With road games at Clemson and Florida, and Miami at home, the Seminoles’ schedule is tough but not terrible. 9-3, behind Clemson in the Atlantic Division.
Maryland
Senior C.J. Brown is healthy and starting for the Terps at QB. (Presumably they won’t go through five quarterbacks this season). Former #1 recruit Stefon Diggs is back for his sophomore year at WR, joined by juco transfer Deon Long. There are a handful of capable running backs on the roster as well, although that unit took a hit when it was announced that Wes Brown, who was arrested in July, would sit out the season despite charges against him being dropped. Three starting linemen return.
Just four starters return on defense, although several of the backups return with some degree of experience. Pass rush was an issue last year and, with an inexperienced front four, could be again. The secondary may be the strength of the defense.
Brad Craddock needs to improve in the kicking game, going just 10/16 on field goals last year. WR Stefon Diggs is a huge weapon in the return game, provided he continues to play on special teams with a bigger role in the offense.
Prediction: 6-6 or thereabouts.
NC State
New head coach Dave Doeren is presumably going to make some changes to the offense, even if he doesn’t go to a full spread until he has his own recruits in place. He doesn’t plan to make an announcement about a starting quarterback until closer to the opener. Colorado State transfer Pete Thomas, sophomore Manny Stocker, and Arkansas tranfer Brandon Mitchell are reportedly all in the running. Two of last year’s running backs return, and there are three experienced upperclassmen at receiver, although only one started last year. On the line, the center and both guard spots will be taken over by new starters.
Four starters return to the defense, along with senior linebacker D.J. Green. Green tested positive for a banned supplement and was suspended for last season. He should help shore up a pass rush that was weak last season. Three spots in the secondary are open and that unit is likely to be on the young side, other than senior Dontae Johnson, the sole returning starter in the defensive backfield. Up front, both tackles return.
The return game should be in good shape, but kicker Niklas Sade hit just 13 of 23 field goal attempts.
Prediction: With a new head coach and two new coordinators, I think a step back is more likely than a step forward initially. However, the schedule is fairly soft, with non-conference games versus Richmond, Central Michigan, and East Carolina, plus conference games with Duke, BC, and Maryland at home. I think 6-6 is entirely possible, and I’m even going to give the Wolfpack a seventh win. 7-5.
Syracuse
All the Orange have to do on offense this year is replace their quarterback, two leading receivers, two linemen, their coordinator, and their head coach. No biggie, right? Well, maybe not. Two experienced running backs return in Jerome Smith and Prince-Tyson Gulley. The two combined for 2,283 all-purpose yards last season, so that position is in good hands. A couple of targets return in the passing game, but there’s a fair amount of inexperience at that position as well. At quarterback, Terrel Hunt and Oklahoma transfer Drew Allen are battling.
Six starters return on the defense, spread out across the positions. In addition, it looks as though all or most of the Orange starters will be juniors and seniors. Former defensive coordinator Scott Shafer is now the head coach, and so was able to hand-pick his successor, Chuck Bullough. That should help ensure some level of continuity and similarity with regards to scheme.
Ross Krautman is a fairly accurate kicker, but he made just 15 of 23 field goals last year. That will need to improve.
Prediction: I expect a slight step back for the Orange this year, but their schedule isn’t nearly as tough as it could be. 5-7.
Wake Forest
The bad news for the Deacons on offense is that they finished 114th in the country last season. On the bright side, that means there’s (almost) nowhere to go but up. Senior QB Tanner Price returns, as do both starting wideouts and running back Josh Harris. The offensive line will have to be better for any of that to matter.
The defense is experienced, with eight starters returning. All three linemen are seniors and returning starters, as are two of the linebackers. LB Justin Jackson led the team in tackles last season with 81. The secondary struggled at times last year, but more experience should help them
Former Aussie Rules punter Alex Kinal averaged 40.7 yards lasts season.
Prediction: Wake Forest could potentially go 4-0 (Presbyterian, at BC, Louisiana-Monroe, and at Army) before reality sets in. I see 7-5 as the best-case scenario, with 6-6 being more likely.
Duke
Starting quarterback Anthony Boone took over for an injured Sean Renfree last season and put up very respectable numbers both running and passing. Junior wideout Jamison Crowder returns after a 1,074-yard season in 2012. Three running backs combined for 200 yards in Duke’s bowl game (wow, does that sound weird… Duke’s bowl game) and all three are still on the roster. On the offensive line, both guards and both tackles return.
The defense is a bigger question mark than the offense. Almost all of the experience is up front, with three of the four linemen returning. They’ll need to be able to create a pass rush, because the secondary is fairly green. Linebacker Kelby Brown, a freshman All-American in 2010, returns after not one but two ACL injuries.
Last year’s kicker and punter were both freshmen, and both performed reasonably well. Main return man Lee Butler needs to be replaced.
Prediction: This should be a decent team offensively. The defense is a big question mark. Reaching a second consecutive bowl game will be a tall but not impossible task. 6-6.
Georgia Tech
The good news for the Yellow Jackets is that they have the entire offensive line returning, as well as the fullback and halfback, from a team that ranked fourth in FBS in rushing last season. Coach Paul Johnson also has at his disposal two quarterbacks, sophomore Vad Lee and freshman Justin Thomas, who are talented enough that he wants to find ways to get both on the field. Lee will start, but Thomas is expected to see time as well. The bad news? Those quarterbacks are throwing the ball to a young and inexperienced group of receivers. Even if the passing attack should prove somewhat anemic, the offensive line and the run game may well be stout enough to atone for it.
Defensive coordinator Ted Roof, who took over mid-season last year, has switched the Jackets’ defense to a 4-3 base. Eight 2012 starters return. Senior Jeremiah Attaochu will be playing end this year; he had 10 sacks last season as a linebacker.
The Jackets’ kicking game needs work. Freshman Harrison Butker is likely to take over that position this year. Return man Jamal Golden returned two kickoffs for TDs lasts season.
Prediction: As long as the defense adjusts quickly and well to the 4-3, this team could be a dark horse in the ACC Coastal division. 8-4.
Miami
Quarterback Stephen Morris returns for his senior year having put up excellent numbers in the second half of the 2012 season. Ditto for sophomore running back Duke Johnson, who broke Clinton Portis’ freshman rushing record last season while not even starting full-time. Morris has multiple receiving options at his disposal, and the entire offensive line returns, including right tackle Seantrel Henderson, the top recruit in the country coming out of high school. Don’t be surprised if this unit picks up right where they ended last winter.
Canes fans have to hope, however, that the defense doesn’t pick up where they left off last winter. They allowed over 200 yards per game both rushing and passing, and over 30 points. Kansas State, Notre Dame, Virginia, and Duke each rang up over 40 on Miami. The fact that only four starters are returning may not be the negative thing that it usually is, even if it means this unit may be on the young side.
Matt Goudis can both kick and punt, but the arrival of transfer Pat O’Donnell from Cincinnati means he’ll only have to handle the kicking.
Prediction: It’s hard to believe it’s been a decade since The U was truly relevant nationally. This year’s team won’t get them back there, but it’s definitely moving in the right direction. 8-4.
North Carolina
Running back Giovani Bernard has departed for the NFL, but quarterback Bryn Renner still has a fair amount of talent around him. Renner finished the 2012 season by throwing for 300 yards against NC State, Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Maryland, and his top targets, receivers Sean Tapley and Quinshad Davis and tight end Eric Ebron, are back as well. The Tar Heels do need to replace three starters on what was a very good offensive line last season.
The defense has more question marks than the offense. Losing LB Shakeel Rashad and S Sam Smiley for the season in fall camp won’t help. The linebacking corps, in particular, could have all new starters this season. The secondary was a weakness a year ago; Heels fans will have to hope that experience and spring practice will have helped that unit, as three starters are returning.
North Carolina led the ACC in net punting last season, and punter Tommy Hibbard returns.
Prediction: It’s always tough to predict when one side of the ball looks above-average and the other side is questionable. UNC has tough road games on the schedule at South Carolina and Virginia Tech, although they escape Atlantic division powers Clemson and Florida State entirely. 7-5.
Pittsburgh
Pitt’s first year in the ACC hasn’t exactly started with a bang. Quarterback Tino Sunseri and Ray Graham graduated, leaving Rushel Shell the primary offensive weapon. Shell then transferred in the spring. Tom Savage, a fifth-year senior who quarterbacked Rutgers as a freshman, transferred to Arizona, then transferred again to Pitt, has potential. He’s surrounded, however, by a fairly inexperienced group of players. The exception is wide receiver Devin Street, who was close to 1,000 yards last season.
Eight starters return from what was an above-average defense last year. Senior tackle Aaron Donald was an All-Big East selection last year, and safety Jason Hendricks had six interceptions. There may be some hiccups along the way, as they’ll face more spread and spread-like offenses in the ACC than they did in the former Big East, but this unit is capable of stealing a game or two should the offense sputter.
Incoming freshman Chris Blewitt is expected to be the kicker.
Prediction: Pitt finished 6-6 in the regular season last year, and I expect the same in 2013. The defense is very good, the offense is a question mark, and they’re in a new conference- a .500 record would be respectable.
Virginia
Four offensive linemen return to the Cavaliers. The only other returning starters are receivers Darius Jennings and Tim Smith. However, running back Kevin Parks returns; he had 734 yards and 5 TDs last season even without being a starter. Redshirt sophomore David Watford was named starting quarterback two weeks ago after reportedly outperforming Greyson Lambert in the team’s early scrimmages.
Seven starters return to a defense now under the auspices of Jon Tenuta. Head coach Mike London, a former defensive line coach, has reportedly be working with that unit himself, in addition to Tenuta. The linebacking corps is young, with no seniors and junior Henry Coley the only returning starter. Given the scheme changes Tenuta is likely to implement, that’s probably not a huge issue. The defensive backfield is comprised of four juniors, all of whom started last season.
Running backs coach Larry Lewis, an experienced special teams coach, is now in charge of this unit as well. Kickoff coverage needs work.
Prediction: Unfortunately for the Cavaliers, I don’t see very many winnable games on their schedule. 4-8.
Virginia Tech
The Hokies’ 7-6 record last year was their worst in a long time. Senior dual-threat quarterback Logan Thomas returns for his senior season, but he’s one of only a handful of starters who are back. Senior D.J. Coles will be the only upperclassman in the receiving corps, although TE Ryan Malleck is a junior who started last season, and the top two running backs are a sophomore and a red shirt freshman. The line is also in flux, with new starters at three positions. Running back J.C. Coleman is questionable for the opener with ankle issues, but it doesn’t sound like a long-term problem.
The defense has far fewer questions surrounding it, with nine starters returning from a unit that was quite good last season. Sophomore linebacker Ronny Vandyke was likely to start before suffering a shoulder injury in fall camp that ended his season. Senior middle linebacker Jack Tyler led the team in tackles last season with a whopping 119. In the secondary, all four starters return. The only question for one is them will be when. Antone Exum, an All-ACC corner last season, tore his ACL in January. His return for the opener has been ruled out and he will consult with noted sports doc James Andrews in late September.
Kicker Cody Journell and punter A.J. Hughes both return.
Prediction: I see eight games on the schedule that the Hokies should win, and I’d gamble that this defense steals them one they shouldn’t somewhere along the way. 9-3.
Conference Prediction:
ACC Coastal:
- Clemson
- Florida State
- NC State
- Maryland
- Wake Forest
- Syracuse
- BC
ACC Atlantic:
- Virginia Tech
- Miami
- Georgia Tech
- North Carolina
- Pitt
- Duke
- Virginia
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