The AL East: often a powerhouse, always a bloodbath. The division should be one of the more interesting to watch this season; the reigning champion Toronto Blue Jays still feature a deadly lineup, but the rest of the teams in division have arguably closed a lot of the gap that separated them from Toronto. As Spring Training rolls on and we get closer to Opening Day, LWOS will be releasing a series of bold predictions for the upcoming season. Here are our 2016 AL East bold predictions.
Steven Wright and Travis Shaw will both make the Red Sox roster as starters.
In the case of Wright, this prediction isn’t all that bold. Wright is out of options, and the club wants to keep him around, either in the bullpen or as a starter. However, I think he makes the starting rotation out of the gate. He’ll probably take the spot of promising sophomore Eduardo Rodriguez initially, as E-Rod will likely start the season on the disabled list thanks to a knee injury. However, I think Wright would make the rotation even if Rodriguez were healthy. Before Spring Training, I would have guessed he would usurp Joe Kelly’s spot. But Kelly has pitched well so far. Now, Rick Porcello looks to be the odd man out, and likely will be when Rodriguez returns. Porcello has been abysmal in his spring starts, and has done nothing to alleviate concerns that he won’t pick up where he left off in 2015. Wright, on the other hand, has pitched well, and has earned that rotation spot.
As for Shaw, I think he opens the season as the Red Sox starting third baseman. Though a natural first baseman, he’s been taking reps at the hot corner in Fort Myers, and has displayed a solid glove. As for his bat, he owns a .526/.571/.895/1.466 slash line at the plate. I’ll let that speak for itself. Incumbent Pablo Sandoval, on the other hand, has hit terribly so far, and looks every bit the defensive liability he was last season. I won’t touch on his weight. It’s too heavy a subject for this article. It’ll be hard for manager John Farrell to sit Sandoval’s bloated contract, but I think he has to in order to save his job and for the Sox to win. Ultimately, I think either Sandoval or first baseman Hanley Ramirez will be traded, giving Shaw a permanent home. The Sox will have to eat most of whichever contract they ship off, but they can afford to do so.
The Toronto Blue Jays will not win the division.
And, as much as it pains me to say it, the New York Yankees will. Look, I have no doubts about Toronto’s lineup. The Jays led the league in runs, RBI, doubles, and home runs last season, and were second in team batting average. That lineup remains largely intact heading into 2016, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t be the most potent offensive group in baseball once again. Their rotation however, is a potentially huge liability. Marcus Stroman should be a solid number one. He was great in twenty-seven innings coming off injury in 2015, and pitched well for much of 2014. Behind him, however, things are considerably less solid. Marco Estrada had a career year last season, but those numbers were so far out of line from the rest of his eight-year career that it’s hard to not worry that it was an aberration rather than the start of a trend. R.A. Dickey and J.A. Happ, the three and four guys, both own career ERAs around 4.00. While the Jays may have something in Aaron Sanchez, we won’t know for sure until he gets a few more starts under his belt.
The Yankees, on the other hand, have made a lot of good moves. They saw the Kansas City Royals win it all last season thanks to their lights-out bullpen, and decided to up the ante. The trio of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller, and Aroldis Chapman should be deadly once Chapman returns from his suspension. In addition, I think the acquisition of Starlin Castro was one of the most underrated moves made by any team this off-season. The 2016 Yankees will hit well enough to be in a position to win most games, and their bullpen will ensure that they do.
Chris Davis will hit sixty home runs.
There are three players in the division capable of the feat: Davis, Josh Donaldson, and Jose Bautista. Dondalson hit a career-high forty-one last year and could improve on that number, but has a long way to go to get to sixty. Bautista has come the closest of the three; in 2010, he hit fifty-four. However, he hasn’t hit more than forty-three since and is now 35-years old. Undoubtedly he is still a dangerous power-hitter. However, sixty is likely out of his reach at this point.
Davis came close just three years ago, when he launched fifty-three in 2013. He experienced a down year in 2014 when he hit just 26, but battled injury and played in just 127 games. He bounced back the next year; he played 160 games and clubbed forty-seven bombs. Sill only 29-years old, Davis is in his prime. If he’s fully healthy, he has enough power in his bat to get it done. Though Davis just got a huge new contract from the Baltimore Orioles, he experienced a relatively long wait before that deal materialized. I think he sets out to prove that he’s worth the money. Plus, there really isn’t much to like about the rotations in the AL East, which brings me to my next prediction…
The Tampa Bay Rays will lead the division in ERA again.
I’m counting this as a bold prediction because I’m not sure most people realize they did it last season. I’ve given my thoughts on Toronto’s rotation. The success of New York’s staff depends heavily on the health of ace Masahiro Tanaka. Without him, they’re vulnerable. The Red Sox are all question marks outside of David Price and maybe Eduardo Rodriguez, and Baltimore’s number one starter is Chris Tillman, who owns a 4.20 career ERA and was even worse than that last season.
The Rays, on the other hand, quietly have a very solid, young rotation. They just barely missed out on being a top-ten staff at the end of last season, and led the AL East in ERA. Chris Archer is a legit number one guy. He won twelve games with a 3.23 ERA and 252 strikeouts, and is 200+ inning pitcher. He’s gotten better every year he’s been in the league, and should continue that trend. Alex Cobb lost his 2015 season to injury, but held a sub-3.00 ERA in both 2013 and 2014. If he can successfully return to form, he’s a strong compliment to Archer. Behind them, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, and Matt Moore are all solid pitchers. If Tampa’s offense was as good as their rotation, they’d be my pick to take the division crown.
The Rays finally trade Evan Longoria.
Long rumored, this is the year the trade finally happens. Longoria wants to play out his career in Tampa, and signed a ten-year, $100 million contract in 2012 to be able to do so. Unfortunately, baseball is a business, and personal feelings sometimes have to be set aside.
The fact is the Rays need more bats than just Longoria’s. The veteran third baseman is still a good hitter; he hit .270 with twenty-one homers last year. But outside of Longoria, the Rays are faced with a severe lack of firepower. Longoria, if traded to the right team, could still command a major league bat or several prospects in return. And given the current state of the free agent market, what remains of his contract would be no obstacle to a trade. While it’s unlikely they would trade him to a division rival, a team like the Red Sox (needy at third and with a deep farm system) would happily take Longoria off Tampa’s hands, freeing up some money for the Rays and allowing them to reload on offensive talent.
2016 AL East Predicted Standings
New York Yankees (95-67)
Toronto Blue Jays (90-72)
Boston Red Sox (87-75)
Tampa Bay Rays (79-83)
Baltimore Orioles (77-85)
Check back as we get closer to Opening Day for more bold predictions from LWOS.
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