Fantasy Football Mock Draft Breakdown: Part I

The Fantasy Football mock draft season is in full swing. I recently had my second opportunity to complete a twelve person mock draft from start to finish.  All drafters picked until completion, without anyone going on “auto-pilot.”  Mock drafts like these are invaluable in helping prepare for the fantasy season.  Not only was there a full slate of actual drafters, two other fantasy football analysts were in the room: Jamey Eisenberg from CBSSports.com and Adam Pfeifer from RotoCurve.com.  It was the second opportunity to draft with these great fantasy minds, and I learned a lot from our first mock draft.  For our second mock draft, I again examined each team by the following three criteria:

  • Projected starting points per week based on 2015 scoring.
  • Projected starting points per week based on 2016 CBSSports.com projections.
  • My gut instinct on each team.

Who drafted the best running backs? Which team had the worst wide receivers? Who reached for a quarterback? Let’s start with reviewing the weakest team, and work our way up to the strongest.

Fantasy Football Mock Draft Breakdown: Part I

Team:  “Hi, I’m Stratos” 

Drafter: Kaitlyn (10th Overall Pick)
Points per week based on 2015:  92.13 (12th)
Points per week based on projections:  91.2 (9th)
Randle Rating:  12th

Player Position Round Drafted Overall Pick Projected Fantasy Points 2015 Points
Derek Carr QB 9 106 287.2 334
Jay Ajayi RB 4 39 136 35
Lamar Miller RB 1 10 170.2 184
Amari Cooper WR 3 34 146.8 141
Jordy Nelson WR 2 15 182.8 0
John Brown RB-WR 5 58 139 142
Antonio Gates TE 10 111 103 93
Chris Boswell K 14 159 139.9 117
Los Angeles Rams DST 13 154 155 179
Andy Dalton QB 12 135 284.8 294
Chris Ivory RB 6 63 122.8 172
Charles Sims RB 7 82 112.4 128
Sterling Shepard RB-WR 8 87 85.4 0
Willie Snead RB-WR 11 130 104 114

Skinny: The running backs are deep, but outside of Lamar Miller, all three are in a sharing situation. Antonio Gates, at the age of 36, is a bad pick as the only tight end on the roster. Both David Carr and Andy Dalton are underwhelming choices at quarterback. Both would be great backups, but neither can carry a fantasy team to the playoffs. The wide receivers are serviceable, but there is no real standout player in the group. Taking a closer look, is there a standout fantasy player at any position here?  Not a strong team at all.  None of the positions have a potential top five player. This team ranks as the lowest scoring starting lineup using the 2015 statistics and is my prediction for the last place finish in 2016.

Team:  “Loo”

Drafter: Michael (1st Pick Overall)
Points per week based on 2015:  107.9 (1st)
Points per week based on projections:  105.4 (1st)
Randle Rating:  11th

Player Position Round Drafted Overall Pick Projected Fantasy Points 2015 Points
Russell Wilson QB 2 24 369 403
Le’Veon Bell RB 1 1 249 86
Doug Martin RB 3 25 156.8 199
Doug Baldwin WR 5 49 158.4 190
Eric Decker WR 7 73 139.8 172
Jonathan Stewart RB-WR 4 48 143.2 145
Gary Barnidge TE 6 72 119 158
Chandler Catanzaro K 14 168 124.6 137
Denver Broncos DST 8 96 226 236
Blake Bortles QB 11 121 290.6 386
Joe Flacco QB 12 144 281 189
Jameis Winston QB 10 120 292.6 318
Cameron Artis-Payne RB 13 145 83.8 29
Isaiah Crowell RB 9 97 108.8 118

SKINNY:  Based on the 2015 results, this team is should be fantastic.  However, a lot of things broke right last year.  Stewart stayed healthy almost the entire season, and Baldwin had a huge career high in touchdowns.  Thirty-year-old Gary Barnidge was the number two fantasy tight end, and the Broncos finished as the best fantasy defense.  It is very difficult to see all of that good fortune repeating. Le’Veon Bell’s suspension really derails his team. The rankings have this team with the top starters both in 2015 and 2016, but that makes no sense. Picking three quarterbacks when you have Russell Wilson is a waste. The bench is very weak, and the starters have too many question marks.  I predict an 11th overall finish.

Team:  @Max_Jenson10

Drafter: Max Jenson (5th pick overall)
Points per week based on 2015:  97.9 (6th)
Points per week based on projections:  92.9 (7th)
Randle Rating:  10th

Player Position Round Drafted Overall Pick Projected Fantasy Points 2015 Points
Matt Ryan QB 14 164 265.6 275
Matt Jones RB 5 53 139.2 95
LeSean McCoy RB 2 20 146.8 146
Odell Beckham WR 1 5 209 233
Allen Robinson WR 3 29 152.8 224
Kelvin Benjamin RB-WR 4 44 146.4 0
Julius Thomas TE 11 125 85 75
Stephen Gostkowski K 12 140 144.9 159
Carolina Panthers DST 13 149 197 220
Derrick Henry RB 10 116 63.4 0
C.J. Prosise RB 8 92 89.4 0
Karlos Williams RB 6 68 103.4 112
Travis Benjamin RB-WR 9 101 92.6 123
Marvin Jones RB-WR 7 77 89.2 108

SKINNY:  There is a lot to like about this team, but something gives me pause. Matt Ryan in round 14 is a great value, but he’s a cut below most quarterbacks.  His touchdown numbers (21, 28, 26 the last three years), are much lower than you need for a playoff fantasy team. Max does have solid wide receivers and a nice later round tight end. I love McCoy, Beckham, and Robinson, but the rest of the team raises red flags. The bench running backs are weak, and with Matt Jones as a starter, Max will certainly need one.  He should have selected a backup quarterback instead of Derrick Henry or C.J. Prosise.  I want to put this team higher, but my gut says 10th.

Team:  @monkeyking42

Drafter:  David Maurice Jr.
Points per week based on 2015:  101.3 (3rd)
Points per week based on projections: 94.3 (5th)
Randle Rating:  9th

Player Position Round Drafted Overall Pick Projected Fantasy Points 2015 Points
Aaron Rodgers QB 4 40 365.2 362
C.J. Anderson RB 3 33 141.8 116
Devonta Freeman RB 2 16 172.8 242
Allen Hurns WR 7 81 122.6 161
Steve Smith WR 8 88 94.6 85
Frank Gore RB-WR 5 57 130.4 158
Rob Gronkowski TE 1 9 176.8 183
Brandon McManus K 14 160 125.1 135
New York Jets DST 13 153 179 171
Ameer Abdullah RB 6 64 107.2 91
James Starks RB 11 129 83.2 123
Phillip Dorsett RB-WR 9 105 82 27
Michael Thomas RB-WR 10 112 69 0
Laquon Treadwell RB-WR 12 136 93.6 0

SKINNY: I hate drafting Rob Gronkowski in round one and this team proves why.  His wide receivers suffered because of it. Allen Hurns had a touchdown every ten catches and is due for a massive regression. Steve Smith is currently his second receiver when his Achilles looked like “shredded chicken” and his surgeon said it was one of the worst teams he’s ever seen.  That is what happens when you break the cardinal rule of fantasy football drafting:  don’t take a tight end and quarterback with your first four picks.  Unless his running backs have a great season and Rodgers is 4500+ yards and 40+ touchdowns, this will be a tough year. C.J. Anderson has yet to prove he can do it over the entire season, and that’s David’s third round pick. I hate to do this to David, but his team ranks 9th overall.

Team:  Chops

Drafter: John (11th pick overall)
Points per week based on 2015:  105.1 (2nd)
Points per week based on projections:  89.9 (12th)
Randle Ranking:  8th

Player Position Round Drafted Overall Pick Projected Fantasy Points 2015 Points
Drew Brees QB 6 62 308.2 367
Javorius Allen RB 8 86 74.4 100
Matt Forte RB 5 59 128 169
A.J. Green WR 2 14 163 187
DeAndre Hopkins WR 1 11 188.4 220
Demaryius Thomas RB-WR 3 35 138.6 162
Jordan Reed TE 4 38 139.4 157
Steven Hauschka K 13 155 130.7 139
New England Patriots DST 14 158 168 181
LeGarrette Blount RB 10 110 97.6 116
Bilal Powell RB 12 134 73.8 87
Theo Riddick RB 11 131 91.6 98
Tyler Lockett RB-WR 7 83 121.8 102
Markus Wheaton RB-WR 9 107 98.2 106

SKINNY:  I really hate that Demaryius Thomas picks in round three.  Jordan Reed in round four is only justified with a top three tight end finish. When Javorius Allen is your starting running back, it’s a big problem. In a standard draft, Matt Forte’s value really takes a hit. Chops’ running backs are all matchup dependent, but will John know precisely when to play them?  I am not sold that A.J. Green will be a target hog. He was a very inconsistent receiver prior to losing all his supporting cast this year. Drew Brees and DeAndre Hopkins are a really strong pairing.  However, the running backs are simply too poor to bring this team out of the bottom group.  The projections aren’t too far off, Chops rates as 8th overall. 

Team:  “SD”


Drafter: Todd (3rd pick overall)
Points per week based on 2015:  94.6 (11th)
Points per week based on projections:  96.3 (3rd)
Randle Rating: 7th

Player Position Round Drafted Overall Pick Projected Fantasy Points 2015 Points
Philip Rivers QB 8 94 303.6 341
Carlos Hyde RB 3 27 143.6 70
Jeremy Langford RB 5 51 123.4 124
Keenan Allen WR 2 22 153.4 94
Antonio Brown WR 1 3 225.4 245
Golden Tate RB-WR 4 46 144.6 119
Travis Kelce TE 9 99 104.8 117
Adam Vinatieri K 14 166 125 115
Seattle Seahawks DST 11 123 217 223
Tony Romo QB 10 118 296.4 50
Rashad Jennings RB 7 75 96.8 135
DeSean Jackson RB-WR 6 70 104.2 74
Eric Ebron TE 13 147 80.8 83
Austin Seferian-Jenkins  TE 12 142 84.8 57

SKINNY: Getting the best player in fantasy football at pick three is always a positive. Stacking Philip Rivers with his number one target in Keenan Allen is a smart move. This team started off great but needs a better running back in round three than Carlos Hyde.  Reports out of Chicago say Jeremy Langford will be in a time-share backfield.  The quarterback position is solid with a great round eight selection of Philip Rivers, followed by tremendous value with Tony Romo in round ten.  Travis Kelce is a top five tight end selected in round nine. The strength of this team is the wide receiver group, but he needs better running backs. I can only put team  SD in the middle of the pack.  Todd’s team ranks 7th overall.

 

You can continue here to Part II.


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