As the end of summer nears and Major League Soccer teams turn their focus to the home stretch of the season and the playoff race, it’s time for Last Word Soccer Club’s “Slightly Past Midway” end of season MLS playoff predictions. To put these together, we asked some of our writers to give us their final standings, Supporters Shield, and MLS Cup picks.
Any fan of MLS will acknowledge that making predictions at any point in the season is almost impossible in this league. Seriously, who would have predicted the Portland Timbers winning MLS Cup in August of last year? If you raised your hand, you’re lying. That said, predictions are fun, so here are ours.
Slightly Late Midseason MLS Playoff Predictions
Eastern Conference
The top of the Eastern Conference was packed in our predictions, with four different teams getting first-place votes, and the gap in average ranking between the teams that ended up being first and third less than one.
Toronto FC
Sebastian Giovinco is having another historic year and combining more than ever with Jozy Altidore; arguably the best partnership in the league. Throw that in with the fact that Toronto FC have the best defensive record in the East and you have a dangerous combination of solid defense and electrifying offense. (Arslan Siddiqui)
New York City FC
After a crazy schedule to start the year, NYCFC find themselves in the driver’s seat with a nice relaxed schedule. An in form Lampard gives them that other serious scoring threat to take pressure off Villa. Improved defense sees them start the playoffs in good position. (Martin Bihl)
New York Red Bulls
At times this year, the Red Bulls have looked among the best in MLS. Other times, not so much. If they can overcome a bit of an injury crisis at the back, they should be dangerous come playoff time.
Philadelphia Union
The Union started strong but have faded since Vincent Nogueira’s departure. How their season ends will depend on how Alejandro Bedoya adapts to MLS, and how soon Maurice Edu can make his return from injury.
Montreal Impact
Montreal has games in hand on every Eastern Conference playoff team. If they can figure out how to turn some draws into wins they could rise up the table quickly.
DC United
DC made a bunch of moves right before the deadline. None of them were major, but they definitely signaled an intent to get better in attack. It remains to be seen if it will be enough to get them into the playoffs.
Orlando City SC
Orlando is hovering just outside the playoffs spots, but have looked a bit better since Jason Kreis took over. They need Kaka to stay healthy if they’re going to make a real push for a playoff berth, and that seems unlikely.
New England Revolution
The Revolution are good at home and really bad on the road. With five of their last 11 away from home and a team that’s not in great form in the league, playoffs seem unlikely.
Columbus Crew SC
Crew SC is one of the surprise MLS teams in 2016 and for all the wrong reasons. Injuries, a porous defense at times, and a down year from attacking players such as Ethan Finlay have the club currently languishing seven points behind the red line. (John Bava)
Chicago Fire
The Fire aren’t atrociously bad when they’re at home, but Chivas USA has won a road game more recently than the Fire. No reason to expect improvement any time soon.
Western Conference
There was a clear favorite in our Western Conference picks, with every writer picking FC Dallas to finish first, and either the Colorado Rapids or Los Angeles Galaxy to finish second and third. After that, things got a bit messy.
FC Dallas
They’re top of the table and seem to be handling Fabian Castillo’s departure just fine. If Mauro Diaz stays healthy, they likely coast to the Supporters Shield.
Colorado Rapids
Colorado’s defense is great, but they’ve scored fewer goals than almost anyone in the league. Sebastian Le Toux might help in that area, and their defense is probably good enough for them to finish top two even if they don’t pick it up on offense.
LA Galaxy
This feels like a typical Bruce Arena championship team. Start off okay, then catch fire mid-summer. The Galaxy haven’t lost since June 18, and look like they’re finding their form.
Sporting Kansas City
They’re a solid team and growing stronger, making fewer match deciding mistakes, but the finishing touches still need work. (Laura McFayden)
Real Salt Lake
RSL started hot and then came back down to earth with a six-match winless streak in June and July. They’ve got a tough finish, with seven of 11 games against playoff rivals, and two games against suddenly dangerous looking Seattle.
Portland Timbers
Portland is starting to find their form in the attack, but their woeful defending is decimated by injury. If Liam Ridgewell returns and stays healthy, Steven Taylor works out, and Vytas proves to be an actual replacement for Jorge Villafana, then this team can make another playoff run. But that’s a lot of ifs. (Joe Hojnacki)
Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver is tough to figure out. They’re just two points out of a playoff spot, but they don’t score a ton and their defense isn’t very good. Those two aren’t usually a good combination.
Seattle Sounders
Nicolas Lodeiro. Two weeks ago, the Sounders season looked dead. Then they fired Sigi Schmid and signed Lodeiro. Now? They still probably won’t make it, but it sure will be fun to watch them try.
San Jose Earthquakes
If they can start scoring goals, they might make the postseason. If not? They might find themselves only sitting above Houston. (Daniel Sperry)
Houston Dynamo
Houston have looked better since they parted ways with Owen Coyle, but that doesn’t make them a good soccer team. They should use the rest of this season to figure out who is worth keeping around for 2017.
Supporters Shield
Every writer polled picked FC Dallas to win the Supporters Shield. They’re in first right now, and don’t look to have skipped a beat with the loss of Fabian Castillo. If Mauro Diaz can stay healthy there’s no reason to look anywhere else for this pick.
MLS Cup
Our writers were divided on who will face off in the MLS Cup final and who will win. Three out of seven polled picked the Galaxy to win MLS Cup, making them our combined favorite. Three others picked FC Dallas to make it to the final, but only one picked them to win it. Other teams getting votes to win MLS Cup included Montreal, Colorado, and the Philadelphia Union.
“Because MLS”
“Because MLS” is often thrown around as a way of explaining some of the crazy things that seem to happen in this league. As one can see from our predictions, the only thing we’re sure of (other than FC Dallas winning the Supporters Shield, which they probably will find a way to lose) is that we’re collectively not sure of anything at all. Regardless of how good our picks are, it should be an entertaining race to the end of the season.
