When fans and pundits discuss the potential winners of the upcoming European Championship, it’s likely that most will pick the usual favourites; World Champions Germany, current holders Spain and host nation France will be among most people’s pick to win. Other nations such as Belgium, Portugal or England might even be muted as a potential winner. If asked, most would be dismissive of Croatia’s prospects in France.
At the time of writing, Croatia are averaging odds of around 25 – 1, depending on which bookmakers you check. This, however, is a nation which has surprised and defied several times throughout their brief history. Founded in 1990 in anticipation of the breakup of Yugoslavia, they were officially made members of both UEFA and FIFA three years later and initially ranked 125th in the world.
Their first tournament was Euro 96, where they surprised many with the quality in their side and gained many admirers as they made the quarter-finals. Two years later, they shocked everyone by finishing third at the 1998 World Cup and found themselves in the same position in the next official FIFA rankings. Essentially they had moved 122 places in little over five years. Not bad for a nation which, at that time, was less than a decade old and with a population of less than five million people.
Since then, the team has declined by comparison; they failed to qualify for Euro 2000, and of the six international tournaments they have participated in since, they have only made the knockout stages once, at Euro 2008.
Key Players
Croatia’s biggest strength comes from their midfield options, and you would have to think that it will be this area of the pitch that will be key to anything they achieve in France. They have two Champions League winners, in Barcelona’s Ivan Rakitić and Real Madrid’s Luka Modrić, who need no introduction. Modrić’s club mate Mateo Kovačić has endured a frustrating time since Zinedine Zidane became manager at the Bernabéu, but he is still expected to be a key figure in the squad this summer.
The real surprise package came from Ivan Perišić, who has gone from strength to strength since joining Italian giants Inter last summer from Wolfsburg. He scored six goals from nine appearances during the qualifiers, outscoring not only all of Croatia’s strikers, but every other player in their group. His team mate at the San Siro, Marcelo Brozović, is also expected to be heavily involved
Much is also expected of 19 year old Dinamo Zagreb midfielder Ante Ćorić, who was recently awarded the Croatian Hope of the Year, an annual award for the country’s best young talent. He recently won his first cap in the recent friendly against Moldova and if he shines brightly at Euro 2016, it’s unlikely he will remain in his homeland.
Up front Croatia have plenty of options, although the options they have in midfield mean that they tend to play with one striker. Juventus striker Mario Mandžukić will be familiar to anyone who follows the Champions League, having won it with Bayern Munich in 2013, and will be favourite to lead the line. Fiorentina striker Nikola Kalinić has had a solid first season in Serie A, scoring 13 goals in total.
Andrej Kramarić will be hoping his failed spell at Leicester City, in which he failed to make enough appearances to even qualify for a Premier League winner’s medal, is now behind him. He showed a marked improvement in form after being loaned to 1899 Hoffenheim in January, a move that has now been made permanent.
In defence, captain and all-time record appearance holder Darijo Srna is still crucial to his country, having represented them at two World Cups and three European Championships. Not only is his versatility an asset, being able to play anywhere down the right flank, but his set piece delivery is equally valuable.
Vedran Ćorluka is another experienced defender, but one issue could be the lack of centre backs in the squad. Gordon Schildenfeld and Domogoj Vida look like the best bet, as Dejan Lovren has been left out due to an alleged fall-out with manager Ante Čačić, despite improved form for Liverpool towards the end of the season. Monaco goalkeeper Danijel Subašić has been first choice between the sticks for the last two years, and this is unlikely to change anytime soon,
Qualifying
Croatia qualified from a tricky group, which included Bulgaria, Norway and 2012 runners-up Italy. Nevertheless, they made harder work of progressing to the finals than they perhaps should have done.
They began with three straight victories, over Malta, Bulgaria and Azerbaijan before travelling to Milan to face group favourites Italy. Antonio Candreva put the hosts ahead after 11 minutes only for Perišić to equalise four minutes later. A 1 – 1 draw was seen as a good result, and it looked like it would be plain sailing for the Croats when they hammered Norway 5 – 1 in Zagreb in their next fixture.
Their next game was the rematch with Italy in Split, and another 1 – 1 draw, but controversy arose when a racist image was painted on the pitch prior to the game. The fallout saw Croatia deducted one point, fined €100,000 and ordered to play their next two home matches behind closed doors.
Following a 0 – 0 draw away to Azerbaijan and a 2 – 0 defeat in Norway, manager Niko Kovac was replaced by Ante Čačić. He oversaw the 3 – 0 home victory over Bulgaria, played in an empty stadium, and a 1 – 0 away win over Malta, but their qualification hopes depended on what happened elsewhere. When Norway took an early lead in Italy, it looked as though they might attain qualification, but two goals in the last twenty minutes turned the tables.
Croatia finished second in their group with 20 points, resigning Norway to a two legged playoff against Hungary, which they lost 3 – 1 on aggregate.
Croatia’s Chances
Croatia begin at the Parc des Princes on June 12th against Turkey and then face the Czech Republic in St. Etienne five days later. On paper, they have a superior squad to both those teams. Their final group fixture is against Spain on 21st June in Bordeaux.
Spain are favourites to top Group D, but Croatia will definitely fancy their chances of qualification, although they will see it as vital that they don’t go into their final group game needing a result against the holders.
This is also the first time that the tournament has featured 24 teams, which means that the top two in each group will qualify for the knockout phase, along with the four third-placed teams with the best overall records. Croatia may not be favourites, but anything other than qualification from this group will be seen as an underachievement.
Since their qualification was assured, Croatia have recorded wins in three of the four friendly matches they have played, against Israel, Moldova and a particularly impressive 3 – 1 victory away to Russia. The other was a 1 – 1 draw with Hungary back in March. Their final warm-up match will be at home to San Marino on Saturday, which they are expected to win comfortably.
It’s fair to say that Croatia wouldn’t be most people’s first choice as tournament winners for this summer’s European Championship. Then again, neither were Greece twelve years ago at Euro 2004, and Italy certainly weren’t favourites for the World Cup in Germany two years later. Those people who jokingly put a bet on Leicester City to win the Premier League title this year are probably wishing that they invested more than just a pound or two.
With some of the players that Croatia have in their squad, and the fact that there is none of the added pressure that comes with being one of the pre-tournament favourites, they look as good a bet as anyone else to be the surprise package of Euro 2016. Given the odds that are being given for them to win the tournament, they might well be worth a punt: stranger things have happened in football.
