If a week is a long time in politics, eight weeks is an eternity in football. Leicester’s season has turned the Premier League on its head, and this has been mirrored in betting trends on Matchbook.
Who in August could have foretold a scenario where the title holders Chelsea, as well as big hitters Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City would all be out of contention for the title at the start of April, or where Leicester could come from left field to lead so emphatically?
Since the beginning of February the probability of The Foxes winning the title has shot up from 10% to 58%, according to matched bets on the exchange.
City’s fortunes have collapsed from a title contending 42%, down to 1% in the same period, while Spurs’ performance over the eight weeks has seen their chances grow from just 10% to an in-the-running 25%.
Arsenal’s hopes were raised from 35% to a high of 38% after their 2-1 defeat of Leicester, before being dashed through a series of poor performances, leaving them at just a 15% possibility at the break of winning the 2016 title.
According to bettors on Matchbook, the 2016 Premier League title is Leicester’s to lose. The Foxes have not batted an eyelid since going down to Arsenal through a 95 min goal when Danny Simpson’s red card left them with ten men. So the question for bettors is whether Leicester’s 60.61% likelihood is a worthwhile position, or whether to bet against Leicester winning at odds of 39.39%.
With Spurs’ Harry Kane the top scorer in the league so far, does Tottenham’s 25% likelihood represent good value, and with Arsenal now out of the Champions League and FA Cup, can Wenger’s team put a run together, show their class and ensure their manager’s future? It’s all to play for.
This piece is brought to you by matchbook.com. Matchbook is a peer to peer betting exchange offering liquid markets and low commissions, giving bettors a competitive advantage over bookmakers. With almost £7bn in betting turnover, it is the fastest growing betting exchange in the world.
