MLS had a predictably rough first leg of the CONCACAF Champions League quarterfinals. D.C. United played well for 70 or so minutes against Queretaro, but tired late and gave up a pair of goals on the road. Seattle Sounders managed to draw with Club America, but the two away goals conceded will mean the second leg in Mexico City will be an uphill battle. Real Salt Lake failed to score in a 2-0 defeat to Tigres. LA Galaxy, who had the best shot of moving on to begin with, bored us to death with a scoreless draw against Santos Laguna.
Let’s examine each MLS club and their chances of moving on to the semi-final.
Who Can Advance from MLS in CONCACAF Champions League?
Queretaro 2-0 D.C. United
D.C. United dug themselves a hole, but it’s nothing they cannot escape. They will have the tough task of overcoming a 2-0 deficit, but at lest they can do it at RFK Stadium. While this is an advantage to them, they will have to correct some glaring mistakes in defending if they want to give themselves a shot at moving on. The second goal conceded, in particular, was the most preventable. The onus fell on right back Sean Franklin for being overaggressive in his attempt to cut off Antonio Naelson’s through pass. If he runs with Edgar Benitez instead of trying to be a hero, the scoreline probably stays 1-0 in the end.
United can also benefit from finishing their chances. They hit the woodwork twice on Tuesday night and had several other chances that really should have gone in. A little more luck on their side could have led to, at the very least, a 2-2 draw with two away goals going home. This would have unquestionably been a moral victory. Since they got a little unlucky early on and tired late, I say they are underdogs to storm back and win.
D.C. United chance to advance: 33%
Seattle Sounders 2-2 Club America
Seattle scored two nice goals off set pieces for themselves, but also gave up two atrocious goals that could have easily been defended better. This was Seattle’s first competitive action in a month and a half since the Western Conference semi-finals against FC Dallas, and it was obvious that there was some rust. Both goals were the result of poor communication among the back four. On America’s first goal, they were playing too high of a line and were unable to catch up with Darwin Quintero’s aggressive run down the center of the pitch. They looked to try an offside trap to catch him running too soon, but they were too slow on implementation. The slight hesitation from Marshall in pursuit was enough to send Quintero flying through on goal. Brad Evans and Tyrone Mears were the culprits on the second goal. Mears just decided to let Oribe Peralta take off in the penalty area for the easiest redirect he will ever will see, presumably expecting Evans to be there to cover for him.
These errors are correctable, but I don’t think they will be able to get them fixed in the six days before heading to Mexico City. Estadio Azteca is a fortress and Club America just do not lose there to American opposition. The best they can hope for is a smash and grab 1-0 win, but I don’t think they will have what it takes to keep a clean sheet, let alone score multiple goals of their own. Because of the overwhelming pessimism associated with playing a second leg in such hostile territory, I give Seattle a smaller chance of coming back than I did D.C., despite the even honors on Tuesday.
Seattle Sounders chance to advance: 25%
Tigres 2-0 Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake’s performance mirrored D.C. United’s in many ways. They played a strong opening hour or so. They grabbed a couple chances that they probably should have converted, and tired out in the end. The first goal of the night was a failure on a set piece. Jose Rivas simply rose above the passive RSL defense to head it home. More poor set piece defending allowed Tigres to double their lead in the final minutes. A corner dropped through everyone before being played back into the face of goal where no RSL player was in good position to make any sort of play. As a result, they are heading back to Utah down a pair of goals.
At first glance, the RSL situation looks much like D.C. United. A 2-0 hole isn’t that tough to climb out of at home. However, Real Salt Lake is clearly the weakest of the MLS sides in the quarterfinals and they are going up against Mexico’s first half champions. A weaker team against a tougher foe puts them as less likely to move along.
Real Salt Lake chance to advance: 25%
LA Galaxy 0-0 Santos
If there was one MLS side that we all thought could move on, it was LA Galaxy. They have the talent. They have UEFA Champions League experience. Why couldn’t they take care of Santos? Well, all this European talent showed one glaring issue on Wednesday night. They could not gel together as one cohesive unit. They played with a “I thought you were going to…” attitude, and it was very detrimental to their attack. Robbie Rogers looked lost both on the backline with a new center back in Jelle van Damme and trying to link up with Gyasi Zardes down the right flank. Emmanuel Boateng was great on the right wing, but his rapport with Robbie Keane is still developing and wasn’t there. Starting Sebastian Lletget may have been a better option for Bruce Arena.
If LA want any hope of performing well in Mexico next week, he needs to get his ragtag group of misfits all on the same page. Their failure to find even one goal at home could very well come back to haunt them in the second leg. Despite this, I still give them the best shot to advance of all MLS sides, even though they are still underdogs.
LA Galaxy chance to advance: 45%
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