Spring Training is finally here. Pitchers and catchers have reported, and more players arrive at camps each day. If you’re a fan of the Kansas City Royals, you’re probably still basking in the warm glow of a Word Series title, while perhaps wondering if KC has done enough in the off-season to defend its crown, so to speak. If you’re a fan of any other team, you’re probably trying to decide if your front office has done enough to knock the Royals off their perch and what, if anything, they still have to do. Most fans like seeing their teams make big, splashy moves. Yet, as we have learned time and time again, the more gaudy a move is, the more devastating the fallout is likely to be if the move backfires. Last season’s Boston Red Sox served as just the latest chapter in this cautionary tale: beware of big off-season moves.
A Rich and Fruitless (Recent) History
We’ve seen it many times before, not just with the Red Sox, and not only in the off-season. General managers and their lackeys in the front office feel that, partly to appease fans and partly to put their teams over the proverbial edge, they need to do something big. I understand the thinking: that’s what shows they really are trying to win. We saw it with the Oakland Athletics in 2014, when they sent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to the Red Sox for big game pitcher Jon Lester; we saw it with the Seattle Mariners and their courtship of Robinson Cano; and we’ve seen it before from the Sox, when they brought in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to give themselves a surefire World Series roster. Those are just a few of the more recent examples.
Cano, for his part, has mostly been a disappointment offensively, posting two of the four lowest OPS totals of his career in his first two years in Seattle. Crawford and Gonzalez couldn’t handle the pressure of playing in Boston, and were sent to the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of a megadeal (a big move that, for once, did work out well for Boston, but has not paid off for L.A.). And Lester struggled by his standards, adding little to an already great rotation while costing the team its offense in the form of Cespedes, who would help bring the New York Mets to the World Series just a year later.
Mistakes Once Made, Made Again
Just over a year ago, with the memories of Crawford and Gonzalez seemingly wiped from their minds, the Red Sox brass decided to bring in third baseman Pablo Sandoval, a post-season hero for the San Francisco Giants, and outfielder Hanley Ramirez, who began his career in the Sox system. Both had been great hitters at various points in their careers, and the contract numbers reflected that: five years, $95 million for the Panda; four years, $88 million for Hanley.
We should have known then that it wouldn’t work out. Why were Giants fans so happy overall to be rid of Sandoval? Sure, he could be a streaky hitter and had weight issues, but hadn’t he proved he could get the job done in the playoffs? As for Hanley, he had trouble staying healthy and wasn’t the greatest defender, but if he could avoid injury, and if his defensive woes could be hidden underneath the Green Monster, wouldn’t it be worth it for his bat? How wrong we were.
The Kung Fu Panda, as he is known, proved worse than just streaky. A switch-hitter his entire career, he became so bad from the right side that he abandoned it entirely (though he plans to return to switch-hitting this season). His obvious weight problems robbed him of any semblance of range at the hot corner, making him a huge defensive liability. While manager John Farrell claims Sandoval was asked to report to camp in “better overall condition”, the Panda arrived on Sunday looking just as rotund as ever.
Ramirez didn’t work out any better. He once again failed to stay healthy for an entire season, and was so bad in left field that he is now being moved to first base. He also dealt with conditioning issues that he may or may not have addressed. What was worse was that he seemed indifferent to his struggles. The attitude he displayed to the public, whether or not it was how he actually felt, lost him the support of the fanbase.
Consequences
Those two moves cost former GM Ben Cherington his job. He is currently out of baseball. Yet the consequences of those acquisitions remain with the team. For any organization, it would be difficult, if not impossible, to justify giving up on that kind of money just one year into the investment. Besides, neither player has any sort of trade value at the moment. For now, the Red Sox are stuck with both Sandoval and Ramirez.
Perhaps first base will suit Hanley, but it’s more likely that he’ll struggle at a position he’s never played before. And while he struggles, Travis Shaw, who aquitted himself well at the plate and proved a competent defender as a rookie last season, must either ride the bench or wallow in Triple-A. Maybe Hanley can move to designated hitter when David Ortiz retires after this season, but for now fans must suffer watching him attempt to play the field.
Perhaps Sandoval, despite the complete lack of any outward indication, is in “better overall condition”, and perhaps his bat returns to him. However, the opposite is more likely in both cases. And, like Ramirez, he is blocking more productive players. All-Star super-sub Brock Holt is a very good hitter and can play any position competently, including third base. He could more than adequately hold down the fort at third until top prospect Rafael Devers, the second-ranked third base prospect in all of baseball, is ready to take over. While that likely won’t be for a few more years, Devers is moving through the system ahead of schedule, and could be ready to come up to Boston before Sandoval’s contract runs out.
And that’s the real issue. When big moves go wrong, they not only force the club to suffer through the duration of the contract, but they prevent better players who command lower dollar figures from contributing to the team. Fans love to play armchair GM. We wonder why our favorite teams don’t have this superstar slugger or that number one pitcher, and we vilify front offices for not making these moves. I mean, how stupid can they be? Its so obvious. GMs, for their part, are not oblivious to this grumbling; they know that, if it becomes loud enough, it can cost them their jobs. So they make the big move, even if maybe they know better.
If A’s won more often, fans might not forget so easily that Billy Beane’s moneyball actually does work. We should not forget the value of patience, of developing talent, and of being cautious of burdensome, potentially crippling, veteran contracts. Undeniably, in any major sport these days, one must spend some money to win. Billy Beane doesn’t win because Lewis Wolff is allergic to spending money. But the line between spending and spending recklessly, just to appear to be trying something different, is very thin. As this year’s Red Sox know, crossing it can be devastating for years afterward.
Moving Forward
Boston couldn’t avoid making a big splash this year eight, bringing in starter David Price on an enormous contract. The move was necessary; the Red Sox needed an Ace after living with five “aces” last year. And executives shouldn’t be afraid to spend; they just need to be careful. Price in many ways brings with him a more proven track record than those of either Ramirez or Sandoval, and so may be less of a risk. Yet any drop-off in performance, no matter how slight, could be seen as a total loss given the obscene amount of money Price got.
For my money, I prefer the less publicized, and much cheaper, acquisitions of relievers Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith, and outfielder Chris Young. Boston is also banking on a lot of home-grown talent this year, such as outfielder Mookie Betts, shortstop Xander Bogaerts, and starter Eduardo Rodriguez. This in-between approach, bringing in a big contract and several smaller ones while also developing talent internally, should be safer than going all-in on a couple of big names. Its half moneyball and half Yankee-ball, to give the opposite approach a name (ironically, the New York Yankees hardly budged this off-season). New boss Dave Dombrowski is running the show now. Now we get to see if he knows what he’s doing.
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