Dave Dombrowski certainly got the message that the Royals sent out to the league last season: a dominant bullpen can take you a long, long way. On Monday, in what might be called a sequel to the acquisition of closer Craig Kimbrel, Dombrowski continued his efforts to bolster a bullpen that ranked 26th in the league last season. As first reported by Ken Davidoff and Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Boston Red Sox sent starter Wade Miley and prospect Jonathan Aro to the Seattle Mariners for reliever Carson Smith and starter Roenis Elias.
At first glance, this seems like something of a steal for the Sox. Elias and Aro represent a bit of a wash. Either might turn into something. Aro was disappointing in limited action with Boston last season, but had a solid, if unspectacular, minor league career that saw him record 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings and a 2.84 ERA. The 27 year old Elias had a good rookie season in 2014 but regressed a bit in 2015.
The key pieces of the trade, however, are Miley and Smith, and here the Red Sox clearly won. Miley had a great rookie campaign in 2012, coming up just shy of Bryce Harper in the National League Rookie of the Year vote. Since then, however, he’s struggled with inconsistency, never more so than in 2015. He showed flashes of brilliance. There would be starts in which he at least resembled a former Rookie of the Year candidate. In others, he just looked incredibly hittable. In the end, Miley was a solid number five starter in a rotation that needed a solid number five starter, given the uncertainty and fluidity of the rest of the rotation. At the very least, he remained in the rotation while guys like Joe Kelly, Rick Porcello, Clay Buchholz, and Justin Masterson split time between the rotation, the disabled list, and the minors.
But if the Mariners felt they needed a number five starter, why trade for Miley? Why not just keep Elias, who served in that role last season? Perhaps they are banking on Miley recovering his rookie form, but after two consecutive seasons in which he logged ERAs north of 4.30, that seems like quite the gamble. He might be better suited to the far more pitcher-friendly environs of Safeco field; then again, he might not. And by gambling with losing Carson Smith, the Mariners may have overplayed their hand. They traded a young (26 years old) reliever with five years of team control remaining for a back-end starter on the verge of thirty who has two years, and a team option for a third, left on his deal.
Smith isn’t well known yet, but that’s more a product of playing in a smaller market like Seattle than a reflection of his skill set. A sinkerballer prone to inducing grounders (a useful trait within the confines of Fenway Park), Smith posted a 2.31 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP over seventy innings in 2015. He also struck out 11.8 batters per nine innings.
Its only December, and no one will really know anything until the product moves from paper to the field, but the addition of Smith should solidify Boston’s bullpen. Assuming full recovery from injury and overuse, the Sox will have Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa returning to find that they are no longer the only reliable options late in games. A foursome of Uehara, Tazawa, Smith, and Kimbrel (a former All Star closer) looks nothing short of formidable, something the ‘pen could never really have claimed to be at any point in 2015.
And if Kimbrel, assuming he takes over the closer’s role, falls to injury, Boston now has a plethora of capable options to fill in for him. Uehara is also a former All Star at the position, and Tazawa and Smith both have experience in the ninth inning. In fact, Smith saved thirteen games last season.
Heading into the offseason, Boston’s greatest area of need was its bullpen. When the 2016 season opens, it might be one of the team’s greatest strengths. Dave Dombrowski gave up a lot to acquire Kimbrel, and he probably overpaid for David Price. But Red Sox fans should be smiling about this move, while Mariners fans should be scratching their heads. The acquisitions of Price and Kimbrel were both good moves, and clearly necessary even if expensive. This, however, is Boston’s first clear win of the offseason.
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