Over the past few weeks, we here at LWOS have been going from division to division and discussing a move that we believe each team MUST MAKE to improve the most. Today we present the final of six MLB winter previews: the American League East.
The AL East had a strange season in many ways. Picked by many in the preseason as baseball’s strongest division, it both lived up to and, in some ways, failed to live up to those expectations. The Boston Red Sox, a team favored for a World Series berth by those in the know, faltered out of the gate and rode a mediocre rotation, a disaster of a bullpen, and shoddy defense to a second consecutive last place finish. The supposedly old and broken down New York Yankees came within a hairs breadth of the division title. And the Toronto Blue Jays, who had not even made the playoffs since 1993, thundered their way to the top of the East and all the way to the American League Championship Series. Only the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays, the third and fourth place finishers, performed about as expected.
As we get deeper into the offseason and head inexorably toward the winter meetings, we wonder: what can the Yankees do to give them that extra something they lacked in the twilight of the 2015 season? How can the Red Sox find their way out of the basement of the division? What must the Jays do to defend their title? Can the Rays and O’s catch up to the Jays and bring about a true changing of the guard in the AL East? Here’s how all those things might happen.
New York Yankees: Get Younger in the Outfield
Last season, the Yankees boasted baseball’s third-oldest roster, with an average age of 27.5. Only the San Francisco Giants (27.9) and Toronto Blue Jays (29.5) beat that number. They can largely thank their outfield for that dubious honor. All three starting Yankee outfielders are north of age 30. Left fielder Brett Gardner and center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury are both 32, and right fielder Carlos Beltran is 38.
The Yankees certainly outperformed their age last season. However, it undeniably caught up to them in the end. Ellsbury, again plagued by injuries as he has been throughout his career, played in only 111 games and stole just twenty-one bases, his fewest since 2012. He also recorded his lowest batting average since 2010, a season in which he only played eighteen games. Gardner batted sub-.260 for the second consecutive season and saw his stolen base total drop for the third year in a row. Beltran actually had something of a bounce-back season. After hitting just .233 in 2014, he turned in a .276 average and nineteen home runs at the end of 2015. However, as he nears 40, those numbers must be viewed as an aberration rather than the start of a trend.
With those facts in mind, the Yankees should seriously consider investing heavily, which they can afford to do, in Jason Heyward. At just 26, Heyward in just entering his prime. He brings double-digit home run power to compliment his stellar batting average and stolen base ability. He strikes out more than one might like, but makes up for that with his ability to get on base. A right fielder with the St. Louis Cardinals, he would be the perfect successor to Beltran.
Boston Red Sox: Beef Up the Bullpen
Very little worked for the Red Sox in 2015. Hanley Ramirez looked lazy and lost in the shadow of the Green Monster. Pablo Sandoval played atrocious defense and let his weight become a rather, ahem, large issue. Sorry. The rotation was also a problem for most of the season, though over the final two months it was among the best in the league, and David Price will fit nicely at its head.
However, the bullpen was the real problem. Edward Mujica failed to live up to expectations. Closer Koji Uehara bounced back somewhat from his 2014 collapse, but he never seemed to come all the way back and eventually found himself on the disabled list. Now 40 years old, he is more of a question mark than ever. Even setup man Junichi Tazawa, normally the embodiment of consistency, wore down over the season due to overuse and never looked comfortable on the mound after taking over as closer. The rest of the pen was just awful, and I do not find them worth mentioning by name.
The Kansas City Royals proved the true value of a dominant bullpen last season. Adding Craig Kimbrel was a great first step in that direction. He can serve as a bridge to Uehara, and insurance against injury to Uehara, and as Uehara’s eventual successor. To stop there, however, would be a grave mistake. Boston should add at least one more solid arm, such as Tony Sipp of the Houston Astros or Baltimore’s Brian Matusz. Both posted career-best ERAs last season, and neither would be too expensive.
Toronto Blue Jays: Move Past the Homers
Do not misunderstand me: home runs are great. I love me a good dinger. But unless you can count on that power being there when you need it most, being a team that relies heavily on power to produce runs in not always a good thing. Toronto, unfortunately, found its power lacking in the postseason.
In the regular season, the Jays hit more homers and scored more runs than any other team. In the ALCS, however, the long ball largely abandoned them, and consequently the run production dried up. The Jays won their division series despite hitting just .228 because they still mashed eight homers in five games. In the ALCS, against a pitching staff that was top-ten in fewest home runs allowed during the regular season, the Jays managed just six home runs in six games while hitting an anemic .234. When you live by the long ball, you die when it gets taken from you.
There’s no shortage of quality bats on the market this offseason. The aforementioned Heyward would fit well. Alex Gordon of the Royals is older at 31, but recorded the best on base percentage of his career last season. Either would help curb Toronto’s over-reliance on home runs.
Tampa Bay Rays: Trade Evan Longoria
This may make me unpopular among Rays fans. However, as far as I know, I was never popular among them to begin with, so I’m not sure I’m actually losing anything.
Facts are facts, Tampa: Longoria is now 30. He posted the lowest home run total of any season in his seven year career last season (aside from an injury-shortened 2012), along with the fewest walks and the third-most strikeouts of his career. Once again excluding 2012, his WAR has dropped every year since 2010.
The Rays have needs just about everywhere. While Longoria may be starting to decline, he’s still a top-end defensive third baseman with twenty-plus home runs power who has played in at least 160 games in each of the past three years. Plenty of prospect-rich teams, such as the Red Sox, could use a player like that, either at third or at designated hitter. The Rays could receive quite a haul in return for Longoria.
Baltimore Oriole: Add a Top-of-the-Rotation Starter
The Orioles have arguably the toughest task of any team in the division. Aces, as the Red Sox discovered last season, are rather difficult to come by, and the market is already starting to thin.
However, the Orioles must find a way to upgrade their rotation. The O’s starters posted a combined 4.53 ERA last year, good for sixth highest in the league. Chris Tillman, the number one starter according to the team’s official depth chart, went 11-11 with a 4.99 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a .267 batting average against. Those numbers are all his worst since 2011.
Ideally, Baltimore would scoop up one of either Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto. Realistically, however, they can afford neither. They’ll have to find a cheaper name to trot out on opening day. Mike Leake had one of the best seasons of his career in 2015. Prior to the trade that sent him from the Cincinnati Reds to the San Francisco Giants, he was 9-5 on a bad team with ninety strikeouts against thirty-four walks.
Hishashi Iwakuma of the Seattle Mariners could also fit the bill. He owns a career 3.17 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in four seasons in the majors. His age (34) is cause for some concern, but he won fifteen games just two season ago. Its a safe bet that he can still contribute to a rotation. Doug Fister could also be an option on a one-year, show-me type contract. Last season was one of the worst of his career statistically, and his worst since 2010, but to be fair the Nationals were just a breeding ground for badness last season. Fister’s career ERA sits at a respectable 3.42, and he won at least ten games from 2011 through 2014.
What moves would you guys like to see the teams in the AL East make? Get in on the conversation in the comments below! That does it for the LWOS Winter Preview series. We hope you enjoyed reading them as much as we enjoyed writing them. To check out the previous installments in this series, follow these links:
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