Hard to believe, but we’re a full month into the 2015 MLB season. It’s already been a rollercoaster of a season for some players, and it doesn’t look like the craziness has any signs of slowing down. For example, in this week’s Fantasy Baseball Stock Report, two players formerly on my “stock on the rise” lists from previous entries (Adam Ottavino and Miguel Castro) are on my “stock on the fall” list this week, while two others (Brett Cecil and Dellin Betances) have moved from the “fall” list to the “rise” list. Granted, all four of those players are relief pitchers, perhaps the most volatile of positions in baseball, but it just goes to show you how fickle this game can be.
WEEK 4 FANTASY BASEBALL STOCK REPORT
WEEK FOUR PLAYERS’ STOCK ON THE RISE:
Josh Reddick, OF, Oakland Athletics
Reddick missed the first six games of the season with an oblique strain, but has been destroying the baseball since his return to the A’s lineup. Entering Monday, he is riding an 11-game hitting streak in which he is batting .500 with 12 R, 3 HR, and 15 RBI while walking more than striking out. A .383 BABIP that is over a hundred points higher than his career mark of .279 is inflating his stats right now, but as long as he remains healthy, Reddick should continue to produce in the R/HR/RBI department.
Brett Cecil, RP, Toronto Blue Jays
It is beyond me why Brett Cecil, an established, veteran reliever, was given such a short leash with the Blue Jays’ closer role compared to 20-year-old rookie Miguel Castro. Sure, Castro has electric stuff and looks like a great prospect, but Toronto only gave Cecil one game as the closer before relegating him to setup duties. Meanwhile, they let Castro go out there and get rocked for 12 hits and 6 runs in his last 7 appearances before they decided he needs to be sent to the minors. My guess is Cecil’s leash is loosened a little after the Castro experiment, and he should hold onto the closer job for the time being unless he starts to perform absolutely terribly.
Jake Marisinick, OF, Houston Astros
I’ll admit, the reason it has taken me so long to write about Jake Marisinick is purely selfish and purely ridiculous. I own him in a very competitive league (our 19-team LWOS roto league) and I don’t want to jinx him. Alas, I have a job to do and that is to deliver quality and pertinent fantasy analysis! I’m risking it all here for you guys, all three of you reading this.
If you drafted Marisinick, you probably drafted him for the same reason as me: cheap steals and maybe a little pop for your fifth OF or UTIL spot in a deep league. Coming into the season, he was mainly supposed to split time with Robbie Grossman as the Astros’ third outfielder while Colby Rasmus and George Springer played every day. But, 22 games, 3 HRs, 13 R, 12 RBI, and 9 steals later, he’s the everyday centerfielder slashing .383/.427/.632. An astronomical BABIP of .411 suggests that a big drop-off is coming, but his speed and ability to make contact suggest that he is capable of consistently producing a BABIP well over .300. After this hot start I’ll go ahead and say his final numbers will look something like .270/.310/.395 with 11 HRs, 65 R, 55 RBI, and 30 SBs. Not bad from someone who went largely undrafted in most fantasy formats.
Jason Hammel, SP, Chicago Cubs
Jason Hammel has transformed himself from a “pretty bad” pitcher into a “pretty OK” pitcher since joining the Cubs. This year, Hammel is 4-for-5 in turning in quality starts and has registered 9 quality starts over his past 13 starts dating back to the end of last year. He won’t wow you in any particular way and he does get lit up on occasion, but you could do much worse than Jason Hammel if you play the matchups well. He is criminally under-owned in fantasy.
Also keep an eye on:
Dellin Betances, RP, New York Yankees
John Axford, RP, Colorado Rockies
Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Alex Guererro, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Adam Lind, 1B/DH, Milwaukee Brewers
WEEK FOUR PLAYERS’ STOCK ON THE FALL:
Steven Souza, Jr, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Souza, who at 26 is “old” for a rookie prospect, has been touted as a guy who could potentially go 20/20 if he gets regular playing time. After a slow first seven games in which he went 3-for-24, owners started to sour on the former Nationals top prospect. Then, he went on an 8-game stretch where he hit 4 mammoth HRs with a .364 AVG, and the hype train started to pick up steam again. Entering Monday, he is 0 for his last 18 PA and has a .083/.175/.083 slash line since his last home run on April 22nd— a cold streak that has him among the most dropped players in ESPN leagues.
It appears that streakiness is to be expected from Souza, evidenced by a strikeout rate consistently above 22% over 8 seasons in the minor leagues and 38.5% over his first month in the majors. It’s advisable to hold onto him if you can, as the power is legit and he is going to get everyday PA. The plate discipline should improve with regular big league PA.
Adam Ottavino, RP, Colorado Rockies
So far, I’ve tried not to talk about injured players with falling stock in this column, since their respective injuries are the main causes for their respective slumps in value, but with Ottavino I feel like I need to talk it out to get over it. I talked about Marisinick for you guys, I’m talking about Ottavino for me. For my feelings.
As you may be aware, Ottavino was one of my favorite sleepers coming into the season. I drafted him in several leagues with confidence in his nasty sliders and with no confidence in LaTroy Hawkins. Needless to say, when he took over the Rockies’ closer job a week into the season, I was straight giddy. Now, the reports indicate that he is headed for Tommy John surgery and he will likely miss the rest of the season, along with a good portion of next season, and I am straight gloomy.
John Axford appears to be the man taking over for Ottavino in his absence, and he has pitched well so far, but he’s not exactly the most trustworthy reliever at this point in his career, especially in Coors Field. When Hawkins returns from the DL, there could be a “closer controversy” in Colorado.
Adam LaRoche, 1B/DH, Chicago White Sox
Aside from 3 dingers in the first month, LaRoche has been dismal at the plate for the White Sox. Through 22 games and 87 PA, he’s slashing .211/.310/.355 and is striking out at a 34.5% clip. The White Sox are struggling as a whole though, and LaRoche is a notoriously slow starter, so I wouldn’t cut bait just yet. That K% is about 13 points higher than his career mark that spans 11 seasons, so expect that to go down. I expect Adam LaRoche to heat up along with the weather in Chicago.
Drew Pomeranz, SP, Oakland Athletics
Pomeranz is a promising young pitcher who has had injury and consistency problems in the past. He looked primed for a breakout after his first start of the season where he followed up last year’s successful (injury-shortened) stint in the big leagues with 7 innings of shutout ball and 6 strikeouts. In his 4 starts since, however, he has failed to register a quality start or get out of the 6th inning, and his ERA currently stands at 4.61. His strikeout (21.6%) and walk (5.2%) numbers look pretty decent though, and his xFIP is a full run lower than his ERA, so it is possible that he has just been unlucky thus far. If you can afford the roster spot, I would keep him until he gets things figured out.
Also keep an eye on:
Jayson Werth, OF, Washington Nationals
Dalton Pompey, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (demoted to AAA)
Sam Fuld, OF, Oakland Athletics
Miguel Castro, SP/RP, Toronto Blue Jays (demoted to AAA)
Shane Greene, SP, Detroit Tigers
Drew Hutchison, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
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