Three Things I Noticed RBNY: Doom, Gloom, And The Elephant In The Room

Three Things I Noticed RBNY: Doom, Gloom, And The Elephant In The Room

The Red Bulls wrapped up a hectic week in New England earning their first loss of the year. In the process, some very real flaws in the Red Bulls current system have been exposed. The sky is falling! Run for the hills, it’s gonna blow! Okay, in all seriousness, the flaws in the system have not newly emerged, but are a product of team’s beginning to understand and counter, no pun intended, the Jesse Marsch style. Does that mean the season is doomed? The simple answer, no. But it does mean that the response from Marsch and Co will have to be swift to right the ship. There is a trend developing, especially over the last four games that the Red Bulls will need to address. A trend, perfectly exhibited by last week’s games, and something that I have mentioned in the past. So before you get your tinfoil hats and bunker for the long haul, let’s take a look together.

1. Doom

The Red Bulls have fallen victim to their own success. Their complete midfield domination has become an issue when only a few weeks ago it was the shining beacon of the revamped Red Bulls. What happened? Quite simply, teams have realized that the Red Bulls have been lacking creative ideas when in scoring position. It is the soccer equivalent of daring a team to shoot from the 3-point line. Teams are mostly packing the paint these days against Marsch’s men. Proof? I’m glad you asked. Let’s take a look at the possession of all the games the Red Bulls have played this year:

Opponent	POS for	POS Ag	Team p%	# RB Pass	Opp p%	# Opp Pass	Result
at SKC	56.7%	43.3%	74.0%	401	63.0%	304	Draw
DC	52.3%	47.7%	76.0%	477	71.0%	446	Win
at CLB	51.3%	48.7%	75.0%	467	71.0%	424	Win
at DC	54.0%	46.0%	69.0%	391	65.0%	341	Draw
SJ	56.7%	43.3%	80.0%	500	69.0%	389	Win
LA	60.6%	39.4%	78.0%	520	67.0%	350	Draw
COL	68.8%	31.2%	78.0%	574	61.0%	271	Draw
at NE	57.5%	42.5%	72.0%	441	64.0%	323	Loss

 

What are we looking at? Well for one, look at the wins. The first thing that jumps out at me? The number of passes completed by the opposition. In all of the negative results (Yes, I consider draws a negative), opponents attempted 350 passes or fewer. This means that opponents are playing more directly at the Red Bulls when in possession. The effectiveness of the midfield trio relies on turnovers created while teams are attempting to build the attack. By passing the midfield or playing the ball into space, the trio is effectively removed from the game. Instead, teams are forcing the Red Bulls to unlock the defense in the final third. By focusing on the counter attack, teams also don’t need to pile bodies forward and thus can lock up shop. The results have been mostly poor. The Red Bulls are not finishing the chances they are creating, and by keeping the score low, the opposition only needs to hit once or twice per game to doom the Red Bulls.

2. Gloom

Okay, I’m going to stretch a bit here, but stay with me. The team certainly have a gloomy look these days. The culprit? Again, the style of play. The high energy game is terrific and exciting, but sustaining it over a season is incredibly difficult. Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake have attempted to do so to varying degrees of success over the last five years. The constant in both of those systems is that the older players go through cyclical fatigue. Squad rotation is key for the system to succeed, but in MLS, it is often hard to balance the players needing rest, and those capable of filling in. The problem is compounded by the constant need for high levels of fitness. By resting the fatigued players, they may gain some of the pep in their step, but their fitness also drops a level from the time off the field. While this isn’t exactly science, and the sample size is rather small, there are a couple of things we can look at to see this theory in game stats. I believe by looking at the number of turnovers + failed passes, you will see a trend.

Formula = (Total Number of Possession Lost + Total Unsuccessful Passes)/Fatigue Index (Based on total number of days between games. 7 days or more = 100, 4-7 days = 50, Less than 4 days = 25)

Game	Possession Lost Total	Unsuccessful Passes	Fatigue Index	Days Rest	Gloom Ratio	Result
at SKC	137	118	100	N/A	2.55	Draw
DC	133	117	100	14	2.5	Win
at CLB	135	111	100	14	2.46	Win
at DC	150	132	50	6	5.64	Draw
SJ	136	111	50	6	4.94	Win
LA	168	131	100	9	2.99	Draw
COL	173	142	25	3	12.6	Draw
at NE	177	136	25	3	12.52	Loss

 

There are two outliers here. The LA game and the SKC game. In both of those cases, the Red Bulls failed to win and had ample rest before the game. So while, the sloppiness of the team in general did not affect those games, they do help to make the same point. Let’s look at the rest of the games. Each time the Red Bulls had short rest, the numbers shoot up.  From the Columbus game onward, the Red Bulls appear to be making a lot more mistakes. When the weeks are short, the Red Bulls are having heavy touches and making lazier passes. The number of times the Red Bulls lost possession over the last three games hit season highs in each game. In all of those games, the Red Bulls lost far more possession in the opponents half. While that will be true most games, total was much more even in week 4’s draw at DC then it has been in the last few games. Fatigue of the players running their legs off in midfield shows in these numbers. The true measure will come this week against NYCFC. The Red Bulls will have ample time to rest, and thus lending more credibility to this theory. Keep an eye on these numbers over the next couple of weeks.

3. The Elephant In The Room

Bradley Wright-Phillips has been hot and cold this year. He has shown growth in his game, followed by inexplicable lapses. One of the things that made Bradley so dangerous last year, was the number of chances he had per game on net. While he has kept consistent numbers this season with attempts (Averaged about 3.75 last year and sits at 3.45 this year), I think the true measure is his inability to find the game at times. What is happening? Well, taking him away from goal for one. Last year, Wright Phillips generally had fewer than 20 pass attempts per game. He earned his poacher moniker by being closer to goal. This year, he has dropped back to link up with his team mates more, and it may in fact be hurting them.

Opponent	Pass Attempts	Shots	Result
at SKC	20	0	Draw
DC	29	4	Win
at CLB	17	2	Win
at DC	21	3	Draw
SJ	33	4	Win
LA	24	2	Draw
COL	23	3	Draw

 

While his game has broadened, the Red Bulls ability to hold possession and dominate teams means that attacks are building much more slowly. Using Wright-Phillips as an outlet on a counter attack will happen less often. It also means that he will be in dangerous positions less often. Without one of the midfield trio stepping up into the box on crosses, Bradley will simply be marked out of the game. A couple weeks ago I mentioned Sam and Grella benefiting from this style of play, but if teams pack it in, it will be harder for the wingers to pinch in and gain scoring opportunities. The lesson? Marsch could learn from the past few games that playing more direct soccer might suit the Red Bulls at times. Holding possession and not giving the ball away is important, but catching a defense napping is impossible if you allow them to setup shop and await the impending attack.

 

***DID YOU KNOW***

• Felipe had one of his worst passing games as a member of the Red Bulls against New England with only 67.5% of his passes connecting. Worse yet? He was still good for 6^th best on the team for the day. New England really pressured the Red Bulls into mistakes.
• Against Colorado, New York had the best half of possession they have had against any team, maybe ever. 73.5%
• While Sean Davis showed his age at times, his passing has been spot on. He has a total of 5 misplaced passes in his two games played with 35 attempts. That’s damn good from the homegrown player.
• Mike Grella led the team in passing and chances created against New England. Maybe playing Wright-Phillips and Grella up top would be something to experiment with. Grella also completed more passes against the Revs than BWP has attempted in any single game this year. Involved!
• Connor Lade last started for the Red Bulls on 07/04/13 against Colorado (Thanks @Metros96 !).

 

Main Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images