Here it is, the eighth and final installment of the “Not Dead Yet” series; a series in which I discuss players at each position that I think will rebound in 2015 after bad seasons in 2014. I apologize for the gap between this installment and the last one, we here at LWOS have been hard at work trying to get the 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide ready for you guys, so writing the approximately 7.3 gazillion player profiles has taken most of our time. Also, the final position I will discuss, relief pitcher, has been by far the hardest to write.
Before I forget, here are parts 1-7:
For weeks I have been trying to decide whom I am going to cover for this piece and I just haven’t been able to come up with many names. This is due, for the most part, to the extreme volatility of relief pitchers. Specifically for standard fantasy purposes, I’m talking about closers. When you’re good, you usually get to keep your job. When you’re bad, especially as a closer, there are plenty of other guys ready and waiting to step up and take your job, so most clubs do not hesitate to replace you.
Consider the list of names from 2014 that were replaced due to bad performances: Jim Johnson (Oakland A’s), Ernesto Frieri (LA Angels), Sergio Romo (SF Giants), Jason Grilli (Pittsburgh Pirates), Grant Balfour (Tampa Bay Rays), Tommy Hunter (Baltimore Orioles), Rafael Soriano (Washington Nationals), John Axford (Cleveland Indians), and Jose Veras (Chicago Cubs). That is 9 teams out of 30 (or 30%) that ended up benching, demoting, releasing, or trading their closer due to sucking. Another 2 teams (NY Mets and Chicago White Sox) lost their closers to injury. Not counting trades, that is over a third of the league that lost or demoted the closer with which they started the year. That being said, there aren’t really any closers that had “bad” 2014 seasons that I think are going to be any better in 2015. None, that is, except for one.
NOT DEAD YET: RELIEF PITCHERS POISED TO BOUNCE BACK IN 2015
Addison Reed, Arizona Diamondbacks
2014 Stats (59.1 IP in 62 appearances):32/38 in SV opportunities, 69 K, 4.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Addison Reed isn’t getting a lot of love these days. After a 2014 in which he posted a 4.25 ERA and gave up 11 home runs in just 59.1 innings pitched (his 1.67 HR/9 average was among the worst in the league), he is on everyone’s “closers most likely to lose their job” list. He is also currently dealing with some shoulder issues in camp, so some fantasy owners are buying stock in Evan Marshall and Brad Ziegler, even though the latter is dealing with injury concerns of his own. Despite all of this, I’m here to tell you that– assuming health– Addison Reed of the Arizona Diamondbacks is not that bad.
In his three full seasons in the majors, Reed has shown us that he has good stuff. He has an excellent slider and an electric fastball that has remained effective despite losing a little velocity each year. His strikeout and walk rates have improved each year, and in 2014, his numbers in those departments (27.4 K% and 6.0 BB%) were better than league average. The problem with Reed is the homers. When you combine a pitcher who gets mostly fly ball outs with a park that is friendly to fly balls, you are daring the baseball gods to blow a few extra gusts of wind in your opponent’s favor.
Still, it appears Reed was pretty unlucky last season. His 13.9 HR/FB% was about five points higher—a significant margin– than the relief pitcher league average of 9.0%, and about five-and-a-half points higher than his previous career worst (for his full seasons) of 8.6% , which suggests that indeed, a few of those gusts were not in his favor. If his 2014 HR/FB% was around league average (about six fewer homers in his 59.1 innings pitched), his ERA would have dropped almost an entire run, and that’s assuming those six HR were only solo shots.
The skills metrics looked favorably upon Reed in 2014 as well. His xFIP sat at 3.26 at year’s end, which lines up with what I just mentioned about his absurd HR/FB%. His SIERA was almost two full runs below his ERA, finishing at a crisp 2.68. If you are unfamiliar with xFIP or SIERA, Fangraphs has an excellent stat glossary that explains them, as well as any other stat you can think of. Essentially, xFIP and SIERA throw out things that are outside the pitcher’s control, such as fielding, park factors, plain luck, etc., and look at their underlying skill. They have come to be widely considered much more accurate measures of a pitcher’s performance than ERA. Generally, if a pitcher’s xFIP or SIERA is significantly lower than his ERA, it suggests that he was unlucky. Conversely, if his xFIP or SIERA is higher, it suggests that he was lucky. It appears that Addison Reed was extremely unlucky in 2014.
If he can stay healthy, Addison Reed has a chance to be a tremendous value pick in fantasy. The Diamondbacks probably won’t be a very good team, so the save opportunities may be limited, but he has a good chance to outperform the 30 or so saves for which he’ll be projected. Giving up home runs can’t be solely blamed on bad luck, so Reed’s 2014 should not simply be disregarded, but the extremity of his numbers are bound to regress to the mean (or is it progress to the mean?). He is currently being drafted around 20th-30th among closers, but don’t be surprised if he finishes in the top 20 or even top 15.
2015 Projection: 36/41 in SV opportunities, 75 K, 3.35 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Since I don’t have any more bounce back candidates, here are a few breakout candidates that could end up usurping their team’s currently presumed closer or take over for an injury-prone one:
Edward Mujica, Boston Red Sox
Danny Farquhar, Seattle Mariners
Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays
Kevin Quackenbush, San Diego Padres
Joakim Soria, Detroit Tigers
Ken Giles, Philadephia Phillies
Jenrry Mejia, New York Mets
Adam Ottavino, Colorado Rockies
Joe Smith, Los Angeles Angels
Tyler Clippard, Oakland Athletics
Neil Ramirez, Chicago Cubs
