Welcome to part 6 of my “Not Dead Yet” series, where I talk about players at each position that I think will bounce back after crappy fantasy performances in 2014. In this piece, we will be discussing outfielders. You might notice that there are quite a few more big names in this section compared to others, and the simple explanation for that is that there are simply more outfielders to choose from than any other position players, so the outfield position is much deeper than others.
Before we start, check out the other positions I have covered so far:
Part 1: Catcher
Part 2: First Base
Part 3: Second Base
Part 4: Third Base
Part 5: Shortstop
NOT DEAD YET: OUTFIELDERS POISED TO BOUNCE BACK IN 2015
Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
2014 Stats (100 games): .273 AVG, 13 HR, 32 RBI, 41 R, 2 SB
Ah, Bryce Harper. Former teenage Sports Illustrated coverboy, “LeBron of baseball”, former 1st overall pick, youngest All-Star ever, “Future MVP”, all-world talent, sweetest swing since Griffey, and total bro, Bryce Harper. In my experience, most people tend to agree that he is one of the most talented players in the game and has the skills to become an MVP-caliber player, but where they disagree is pretty much everything else about the guy. Some people love his balls-to-the-wall style of play, but then there are others that see him being careless with his body and say that it shows his arrogance, then they yell at him to get off of their lawns. Some are charmed by the brash sense of humor, others are annoyed by it. Either way, we all know he’s good at baseball.
The problem with Harper is that he hasn’t quite put it all together yet, and the main reason is injuries. After debuting about a month into the 2012 season, Harper proceeded to bat .270, while hitting 22 HRs and swiping 18 SBs, earning himself the NL Rookie of the Year award. In 2013, he was well on his way to bettering those 2012 totals, but a knee injury that ended up needing offseason surgery cost him a month of the season. He started off 2014 slowly, possibly because he wasn’t fully recovered or he was taking it easy on his knee, and was slowed even more when he tore the UCL in his left thumb sliding into third base. Upon his return it was clear that the thumb was still bothering him. He managed to finish the year around his career batting average at .273, thanks in part to an inflated .352 BABIP, but his power appeared to be drained. He also finished the year with just 2 steals on 4 attempts, raising even more questions about the health of his knee.
The bottom line, as I have mentioned a few times already, it that Bryce Harper is still super-crazy-awesomely talented. He will always be compared to Mike Trout, as they are about the same age and came into the league at about the same time, but to knock on Harper for not being Trout-level yet is ridiculous, because no one thought that Trout would be this good this quickly. Harper just turned twenty-two-years-old in October, he is not even close to his peak years yet. Trout is just a special case.
With his style of play, Harper will always have dings and dents here and there, but I think if he can stay healthy in 2015, he will be a top-5 outfielder in fantasy and real life. Considering his price in drafts and auctions will be at its lowest since before he came into the league, this might be the best year to go after Bryce Harper.
2015 Projection: .278 BA, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 85 R, 10 SB
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
2014 Stats (70 games): .238 BA, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 35 R, 3 SB
For Carlos Gonzalez, much like Harper and several others I have discussed in this series, the problem is health. The difference between Harper and CarGo is, however, that CarGo is seven years older, and has been in the league for seven injury-plagued seasons. That makes one’s “injury history” seem more like an “injury trend”, meaning you can probably count on it popping up at some point in any season.
My vote of confidence that Gonzalez stays *relatively* healthy this season has no statistical or even baseball-related basis, it is simply a hunch. If that hunch turns out to be correct though, we’ve all seen what he can do: put up 20/20 easily and contend for a batting title.
There is also the possibility that Gonzalez is traded before the end of the season. The Rockies front office has stated that they are behind CarGo and Troy Tulowitski as the cornerstones of the franchise, but as LWOS’s own Greg Hogan points out, it is clearly time for a change in Colorado. Who knows how much feelings could change if the Rockies happen to be out of contention by the time the trade deadline rolls around?
2015 Projection: .310 BA, 25 HRs, 75 RBI, 75 R, 20 SB
Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds
2014 Stats (137 games): .217 BA, 18 HRs, 66 RBI, 71 R, 12 SB
I’m going to tell you a secret: Jay Bruce was bad in 2014. Oh, you already knew? So I don’t have to tell you just how bad he was compared to the rest of his career? Eh, I will anyway. Bruce just had his worst statistical season since 2008 (his rookie year) in just about every category. A stalwart in the middle of the Reds lineup that has been money in the bank for about 30 homers every year, Bruce put up career worsts or second worsts in HR, RBI, R, AVG, OBP, SLG, BABIP, K%, BB%, and ISO.
If you were following Bruce closely for the past few years though, you might have seen something like this coming. Perhaps you might not have thought it would have been this drastic, but a steadily increasing K% and a steadily decreasing BB% are never good signs for someone who already struck out a lot and already didn’t walk a lot.
That doesn’t sound very promising, so why do I think that he’ll bounce back this year? There are a few reasons. The first is that he already has a well-established track record of production, so based off of that, it’s not much of a stretch to believe that 2014 was an outlier. Secondly, he had to deal with a knee injury in 2014 that cost him about a month of the season and was clearly affecting him for the remainder of the season. Finally, Cinci’s lineup should at least be slightly improved in 2015, with the addition of Marlon Byrd and the return of Joey Votto. The latter will help more than you might realize.
Many believe that after Joey Votto went down with an injury, Jay Bruce was simply trying too hard. His walk rate plummeted, and it seemed like he was pressing without Votto in the lineup. Through May 4, when he went down with his injury, Bruce had 22 walks in 120 plate appearances for a Votto-esque 18.3 BB%. After he returned from injury, he had just 22 walks the entire season, a ghastly 5.1 BB% in 425 PAs.
My overall thoughts on Bruce in 2015: he can’t be that bad. There is evidence that shows that he has been in decline for the past few years, but there is also evidence that much of his atrocious 2014 was just fluky bad luck. Did I mention his BABIP was about 30 points lower than his career average? While I don’t expect him to hit 34 homers again, I think that Jay Bruce could hit .255-ish with about 25-30 homers and drive in about 80-90 RBI in 2015, a nice bounce back candidate.
2015 Projection: .255 BA, 27 HR, 83 RBI, 70 R, 8 SB
Also watch out for:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers (he finally had surgery to fix the thumb that’s been bothering him for 2+ years)
Jason Heyward, St. Louis Cardinals (maybe it’s just because he’s with the Cardinals now, maybe it’s because he’s in a contract year, but I think we are about to see a career year from him)
For the rest of our fantasy baseball profiles and articles, please check out our Fantasy Baseball Guide Page.
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