Over the past three seasons, the Boston Red Sox have gone from worst to first and then back to worst in the American League East. Can the Sox continue the pattern and return to the top of their division in 2015? I certainly think so. As part of our 2015 LWOS MLB Bold Predictions series, I proudly present the Red Sox Optimism (read: unabashed homerism) edition. Bon appétit.
2015 MLB Bold Predictions
1) Five members of the Red Sox will hit 20+ home runs: Let’s get this out of the way: this is the least likely to come true of all my predictions. But before you stop reading, allow me to present my case. Designated hitter David Ortiz and third baseman Pablo Sandoval are virtual locks for at least 20 bombs. Ortiz has hit at least 20 every season since 2002 and clubbed 35 last season – at age 38, mind you – his highest season total since 2007. Sandoval hasn’t hit more than 20 in a season since 2011, but he has the power. Hitting next to Ortiz in the lineup should force opposing pitchers to throw him some more hittable stuff than he is used to seeing, and his swing should serve him well in Fenway Park. First baseman Mike Napoli is also a fairly safe bet for 20. He launched 23 in his first season in Boston, but that number fell to 17 in 2014. Napoli had surgery in the offseason to fix his sleep apnea, which sapped much of his energy last season. He has already stated that the difference is like night and day, and he has experienced a huge uptick in his energy. Now that he will be getting a full night’s sleep before each game, his power should return and his batting average should increase as his ability to concentrate at the plate does. Left fielder Hanley Ramirez has hit 20+ home runs six times in his career, but hit just 13 last season. With a shorter porch to hit to and a plethora of dangerous bats surrounding him, his power numbers should improve; 15-20 dingers for Ramirez is foreseeable. Finally, we come to Dustin Pedroia. The second baseman hit 21 homers in 2011, but in each season since, he has put up totals of just 15, nine, and seven. However, injury limited Pedroia to under 150 games in two of those three seasons, and a wrist injury that required surgery this offseason took away virtually all of Pedroia’s ability to hit for power in 2014. Once again fully healthy, Pedroia has said that his swing finally feels normal for the first time in years, and he is displaying the power in spring training that has been missing of late from his game. Barring yet another injury, 2015 might finally see the return of the Laser Show.
2) None of the starters will post an ERA above four: Too much ink, both virtual and physical, has spilled this offseason about the Sox’ lack of a true “ace”. After they failed to reacquire long-time No. 1 Jon Lester, many speculated that Boston would look to trade for a top arm, such as Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies. Those particular predictions have yet to come to fruition and, though it is still possible that a deal gets done before opening day, it becomes less likely with each passing day that a major change to the rotation takes place. Manager John Farrell has repeated, ad nauseam, that he is confident with the rotation as it stands, and with good reason. If the offense produces runs at the rate it should be capable of, the starters will only have to limit opposing teams to four or five runs per game. That wouldn’t be good enough to win in the playoffs, but over a long regular season, the offense should score enough runs to make up for whatever deficiencies the rotation displays and get the Sox into October. And really, it isn’t that hard to imagine that all five starters will post sub-4 ERAs. All have done it at various points in their careers. Rick Porcello is entering the prime of his career, and his ERA has decreased each successive year he has spent in the majors. Clay Buchholz had an awful 2014, but has shown the ability to dominate opposing hitters and even showed signs of returning to form by the end of last season. Remember, it was just two years ago that he was a serious Cy Young candidate. Injury hampered Joe Kelly last year, but, like Buchholz, he had a spectacular 2013. If he can regain some of that form, a 3.30-3.50 ERA is well within his ability. As for Wade Miley, the youngest starter of the bunch was once the NL Rookie of the Year runner up. His ERA has gone up each of the past two seasons, but a change of scenery and the tutelage of Farrell and pitching coach Juan Nieves could be all he needs to return to form.
3) The Red Sox will win the AL East: Should both of my first two predictions prove accurate, this third one will easily be accomplished. However, even if I’m wrong about the first two, it isn’t hard to imagine this happening in a very weak AL East. Last season, every team in the division, except the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays, lost more games than they did the year before, and though the Jays improved slightly, they still finished 13 games out of first. They went from bad to relatively not quite as bad. And the thing is, only the Red Sox have made serious improvements to their squad. The New York Yankees are old and getting older, and don’t seem to really get the point of having a farm system. Either that, or they still view the rest of the league as their farm system. Its hard to tell sometimes. The Rays, for their part, lost two-time manager of the year Joe Maddon to the Chicago Cubs. The Orioles won 96 games last season, but did so in what was undeniably an uncharacteristic down year for both the Sox and the Yanks. They should still finish a close second to Boston, but they will regress. Oh, and the Jays? No offense, Jays fans, but I don’t really think I need to get into this one. You understand, I’m sure. But hey, maybe this year is finally their year… or, you know, whatever.
4) Yoan Moncada will be called up before the season ends: When the Red Sox signed 19-year old Cuban outfielder Yoan Moncada this offseason, it was viewed as something of a coup for the organization. Moncada is seen as a true five-tool talent, and outbidding the evil Yankees for his services is just icing on the Boston cream pie. At the moment, the Red Sox have a logjam of talent in the outfield. Hanley Ramirez was signed in the offseason and is slated to patrol the shadow of the Green Monster in left field, and Mookie Betts, Shane Victorino, and Rusney Castillo are currently battling for the other two spots. Daniel Nava and Jackie Bradley, Jr. will also likely get some playing time. However, Moncada, despite his tender years, might be more talented than any of them. Should one of them struggle, Moncada will be near the top of the list to get a look in the lineup. His bat is already almost major league ready, and once he gets acclimated to the minor leagues, it should take him no time at all to climb through the ranks of the organization. My guess? At some point this season, Shane Victorino will either get hurt (he has already experienced injury worries early in spring training) and spend some time on the disabled list, or will be traded at the deadline, opening up a slot for Moncada. Though I have no doubt Victorino can still contribute if healthy, his age and injury history make him expendable, and Moncada is the type of talent you want out on the field ASAP.
5) The Red Sox will not trade for a true ace: This one may not seem that bold, since Farrell has said that he is confident in his staff as it currently stands. Despite that, the talking heads surrounding the Sox seem not to believe him. The Sox have the organizational depth to spare some parts, especially in the outfield, and have an apparent hole to fill on the squad. However, even if one or two of their current starters struggles for an extended period of time, there is really no reason to think that the Red Sox can’t fix that problem internally. Though the Red Sox went away somewhat from their new policy of not giving enormous, long-term contracts to veterans, they remain committed to their farm system, and have some of baseball’s top prospects waiting in the minors. Should one or two starters struggle, promising arms like those of Henry Owens, Matt Barnes, and Eduardo Rodriguez should be ready to contribute at some point this season. With that kind of quality depth available internally, there is no reason for the Red Sox to give up the young bat or two that it would likely require to obtain a traditional ace.
Photo by Michael Ivins/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images
