Welcome back! We are winding down to the end of the “Not Dead Yet” series, a series in which I monologize (I see the red squiggly line under that one but I assure you, it is a word) on players that sucked in fantasy in 2014 that I think will not suck in 2015. For this entry, I’ll take a look at starting pitchers. As you may be aware, pitching is deep- so much so that streaming pitching on a regular basis is one of the most common strategies used by fantasy players. Combine that with the bad years these guys had in 2014 and you should be able to get them pretty cheaply. The two common themes I found among the three that I will talk about are 1.) They all play in the National League, not surprising considering the NL’s reputation as being “easier” for pitchers, and 2.) They were all coming off perhaps their best career years going into 2014 before pooing the bed.
Before you read any further, check out parts 1-6:
Part 1: Catcher
Part 2: First Base
Part 3: Second Base
Part 4: Third Base
Part 5: Shortstop
Part 6: Outfielders
Without out further ado, here we go:
NOT DEAD YET: STARTING PITCHERS POISED TO BOUNCE BACK IN 2015
A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh Pirates
2014 Stats (34 starts): 8-18 W-L, 190 K, 4.59 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
A.J. Burnett was wise to return to Pittsburgh, as it was clear the Pirates, more specifically Ray Searage, were the biggest reason for his career resurgence in his two seasons with the club from 2012-2013. The first of Ray Searage’s notable reclamation projects in Pittsburgh, Burnett, known for being a power arm that struggled with command, posted two of the four best walk rates, two of the three best ground ball rates, and the highest strikeout rate of a career that dates back to 1999.
He played most of 2014 with a sports hernia that required surgery in the offseason. At the time it came up, Burnett said that he would play through it, and he actually thought it could be a positive thing because it would make him “pitch” instead of “throw” more. Or something like that. All I know is that it most certainly was not a positive thing, as he was in the running for worst full-time starting pitcher in the league last year. One might say that playing on a bad, bad team in a hitter’s park might have been the reason for the re-decline, but one might only be partly right. Burnett basically went back to what he was before Searage took him under his wing: a hurler who walked or hit everybody. He also had a much more solid defense behind him in Pittsburgh compared to the old farts in Philly.
Why would you bother with Burnett in fantasy next year? Well, for starters, he won’t cost anything. He’ll either be a late round flier or a waiver pickup in drafts and a $1 pitcher in auctions based on his age and terrible 2014. It might sound weird to call a 38-year-old a “sleeper” but, gosh darn it, that’s what he is. He’ll be going back to a better overall team, in a pitcher’s park, with the pitching coach that revived his career, plus he won’t have a hernia constantly nagging at his groin (Like my wife eh? Just kidding, I don’t have a wife. I’m lonely. Sigh.), and it actually seems like he wants to be there.
Side note: as a Pirates fan, I loved A.J. Burnet while he was with the team. When he was initially signed all I heard was “He’s a jerk” or “He’s a bad teammate” but I heard nothing of the sort while he was there. He became a fan favorite almost instantly and was known as somewhat of a mentor to all of those great young arms the Pirates have. Anyway, look for him to have, in what may be his final season, numbers similar to 2012-2013: 10-12 wins, 170-190 Ks, an ERA in the mid-3s, and a WHIP in the mid-1.2s.
2015 Projection: 11-10 W-L, 185 K, 3.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Homer Baily, Cincinnati Reds
2014 Stats: 9-5 W-L (23 starts), 124 K, 3.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
The first thought that comes to my mind when I think of Homer Bailey’s 2014 is that it was terrible; that Cincinnati gave him all of that money in the offseason and then he went out and stunk up the joint. Then I take a closer look at his season and realize that that may not be the case.
For the first 6 weeks or so of the season, Bailey may as well have been throwing beach balls. Homer gave up seven homers in the first month alone and on May 17th, after his first 9 starts, his ERA stood at a particularly rotund 5.44. Still, a .348 BABIP and the insane amount of home runs made it appear as if he was extremely unlucky, despite some struggles with command. Maybe the baseball gods were trolling him because he’s a pitcher named Homer. That could be it.
In his final 14 starts, Bailey flipped the switch and looked like the $105 million pitcher the Reds were paying him to be. His ERA and WHIP over those final 14 were 2.77 and 1.04, respectively, and the BABIP came down to .249. He looked well on his way to putting those awful first 6 weeks behind him until his season ended in early August due to a forearm injury that required offseason surgery.
If Bailey comes into 2015 with a clean bill of health, he could be a steal in fantasy drafts and auctions. With the bad 6 weeks inflating his numbers and the season-ending surgery, you could get a pitcher who could put up #2 SP numbers for extremely cheap.
2015 Projection: 13-10 W-L, 180 K, 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves
2014 Stats (25 starts): 6-12 W-L, 120 K, 4.77 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
Mike Minor’s rebound in 2015, I believe, depends on health. Minor’s offseason, and thus also his spring training and regular season, was thrown out of whack when he underwent surgery to repair “scarring around his urethra”. Needless to say, the ads that show up on my internet browser now that I’ve googled “mike minor urethra” are… uh… yeah. Anyway, he also had some shoulder issues during spring training, so his 2014 did not start well.
It didn’t end well, either. After posting an impressive season in 2013, Minor completely fell off in 2014. He started the season late due to the shoulder problems, and just looked off all year. He never really got it going and almost finished with a “5” ERA.
The good news is that he was among the league leaders in SIERA discrepancy, meaning he shouldn’t have been as bad as he was. If you’re not familiar with SIERA, or “skill-interactive ERA”, I suggest you check out Fangraphs’ stat glossary, which does a good job of explaining all those weird stats you hear statheads talk about plus the ones you’ve never even heard of. Basically, SIERA attempts to quantify the actual skill of the pitcher, despite the numbers.
I think we can chalk Minor’s terrible 2014 up to never quite being right coming off of both shoulder and nether-region injuries. If you have a chance to add him for a couple bucks or as a back end starter, I think that he’s definitely worth the risk.
2015 Projection: 11-11 W-L, 160 K, 3.68 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
For the rest of our fantasy baseball profiles and articles, please check out our Fantasy Baseball Guide Page.
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