Now that Max Scherzer has signed a seven-year deal with the Washington Nationals the next major free agent domino to fall will be veteran right-hander James Shields.
“Big Game James”, as he has been referred to throughout his career, flopped in the 2014 postseason with an ERA over 6. He has actually not been very good throughout his career in the postseason. However, what he has been good at it is eating up innings. Shields has thrown over 200 innings in every season dating back to 2007. He is one of just 25 starting pitchers since 2007 to average over 7.5 K/9 and under 2.5 BB/9 joining the likes of David Price, Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale and many other aces in baseball today. However, what stands out when comparing Shields to those top pitchers is his HR/9. His career average of 1.05 places him eighth worst among that list of 25 starters. The best place for a guy like Shields to land would be a team where there is a clear need for an ace or number two starter and that calls a pitcher friendly ballpark home.
An ideal landing spot for Shields would be in San Francisco where adding the righty would allow the team to use Tim Lincecum and Yusmiero Petit exclusively out of the bullpen and Shields could slot in as the number two behind Madison Bumgarner. Additionally, AT&T Park is amongst the best parks in baseball for reducing the number of home runs a pitcher allows. However, the Giants have aleady indicated that they are no longer interested in signing Shields, despite interest earlier in the off-season.
Another team linked to Shields has been the Toronto Blue Jays due to their need for starting pitching. Shields could act as their ace and workhorse if the team does not feel that Marcus Stroman is ready to lead the rotation. However, the Blue Jays’ home park does not suit Shields well as Roger Centre is one of the better offensive parks in all of baseball. The American League East also has a reputation as a home run friendly division, with Fenway Park, Camden Yards, and Yankee Stadium all being hitters parks.
The Miami Marlins are yet another team linked to Shields and while their need is not as apparent at the position, as they have a solid five-man rotation already lined up. However, Dan Haren has voiced his desire to pitch on the west coast and the team is looking to trade him. If they do decide to move Haren, Shields would be an immediate upgrade. Miami has been very active so far this offseason and adding Shields would be yet another aggressive move towards competing in a potentially strong NL East. The addition of Scherzer in Washington just makes the division that much tougher and may necessitate a response in Miami. The Marlins also feature a strong defensive outfield and a home park that is not conducive to home runs making it an ideal landing spot for Shields.
There have been other teams linked to Shields including the Red Sox, Diamondbacks, and Tigers. The Detroit Tigers could potentially be a very good fit, but there is one team not actively connected to Shields that may want to consider him. If they have the money to make it happen Theo Epstein and the Cubs should sign Shields. The team made splashes this offseason with the additions of Jon Lester and Joe Maddon to go with an exciting core of young players. Shields would be the icing on the cake for a a fantastic off-season that would make the rotation significantly better. Shields would immediately step in to the number two role pushing either Travis Wood or Kyle Hendricks out of the rotation. Kendricks had a successful rookie campaign but was not anything special with a strike out rate of less than 6K/9 innings. Wood has had an up and down career but was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last season. Shields would give the team a much deeper and proven rotation as Jake Arrieta had a breakout season but was an average overall pitcher prior to that. Wrigley may not be the ideal park for preventing home runs but the addition of Shields to Chicago’s roster would put them over the edge and could allow them to compete in the tough NL Central.
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