The final week of the SEC regular season is upon us. With the selection committee slating the first field for the College Football Playoffs (CFP) on Sunday and the rest of the bowl match-ups being determined shortly thereafter, let’s look ahead and see what the SEC and national bowl season might look like in our 2014 SEC Bowl Analysis and predict the national bowl picture.
College Football Playoffs: Alabama, Oregon, TCU, and Florida State
Alabama controls their own destiny and with a win of any type on Saturday in Atlanta, Alabama punches their ticket to the inaugural edition of the College Football Playoffs. I suspect they win by a decent margin and look good and in doing so secure the top seed in the Playoffs and host Florida State in the Sugar Bowl.
This, of course, is predicated on each of these teams winning this weekend. I think Alabama, Oregon and TCU win fairly easily. Florida State does what Florida State does and steals a win against Georgia Tech, but its close. I think Wisconsin beats Ohio State and the committee has to choose between Baylor and TCU for the third seed. The Big 12’s refusal to submit a champion ultimately dooms Baylor’s chance.
Access Bowls:
Capital One Orange Bowl (December 31st, Miami, FL): Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech
I think the SEC only gets one team into the Access Bowls even though some analysts have two teams getting in. Mississippi State gets the nod here and ends up playing a Georgia Tech team that – like so many others – gets close to beating Florida State but comes up just short at the end.
Other Access Bowls:
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (December 31st, Atlanta, GA): Baylor vs. Wisconsin (I think Wisconsin beats Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game)
VIZIO Fiesta Bowl (December 31st, Glendale, AZ): Boise State vs. Arizona
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (January 1st, Arlington, TX): Michigan State vs. Kansas State (I think Big 12 gets three teams in top tier of bowls)
SEC Bowl Tie-Ins:
Once the CFP and Access Bowl invitations are decided, the Citrus Bowl gets first pick of the remaining SEC teams.
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl (January 1st, Orlando, FL): Georgia vs. Ohio State
Georgia is still ranked relatively high for a three-loss team. Additionally, Georgia’s fan base is much larger in the central Florida area and their fan base travels very well. In addition to relative proximity, the Citrus Bowl would probably take Georgia over Mississippi or Auburn for financial reasons. A wounded Ohio State team comes in with a third-string quarterback and coming off a disappointing loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game.
After the Citrus Bowl selection, the conference – not the teams or the bowls – slates the teams in the “group of six” bowls. Of course the conference will do this in conjunction with the teams and the bowls, and usually the interests of all three coincide. But be aware that sometimes they don’t and the conference will ensure that it places teams where it best helps them.
Outback Bowl (January 1st, Tampa, FL): Mississippi vs. Minnesota
The conference places its highest rated and best remaining team (assuming a Missouri loss in the SECCG) in the most prominent of the conference’s “group of six” bowls. The Outback Bowl capitalizes on Mississippi’s media coverage this season and a match-up with B1G start-up Minnesota creates a great storyline.
Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl (January 2nd, Jacksonville, FL): Auburn vs. Penn State
Another natural fit with Auburn still highly regarded and the Gator Bowl maintaining a great time slot and location within the Bowl broadcast structure. Again, the closeness factor plays a role and with a strong fan base, Jacksonville expects a strong contingent of Tiger fans. Penn State is maybe a surprise representative from the Big Ten, but is selected because of fan base and media attention. James Franklin returning to face SEC competition also doesn’t hurt. Lastly, the ACC’s selection for the Orange Bowl drives a Big Ten team into the Gator Bowl.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (December 30th, Nashville, TN): Missouri vs. Louisville
Missouri, constantly underestimated by those inside and outside the conference, lands a less-than-expected bowl for the SEC East Champion. Missouri’s inability to sell tickets for away games this year and their proximity to Nashville drives this decision by the conference. Expect Missouri officials to not be happy about Georgia playing in the Citrus and Missouri playing in Nashville. A match-up against Louisville, also close to Nashville, should be a quality match-up.
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl (December 29th, Houston, TX): LSU vs. Texas
This will be a great match-up between two traditional powers; one struggling to get back to national relevance and one rebuilding for another national run next year. These two schools meet in the middle and with two strong fan bases, there is no doubt NRG Stadium will be sold out. This is about as natural and easy as a bowl selection can be these days.
Belk Bowl (December 30th, Charlotte, NC): South Carolina vs. Duke
The conference places South Carolina in the Belk Bowl as it tries to align teams as best it can geographically. South Carolina fans are great, but the SEC leverages the geographic proximity of the Belk Bowl to maximize ticket sales and regional audience. The ACC follows suit with Duke, a team only two hours away from the bowl site. This will prove to be a much more equal SEC-ACC match-up than the thumping that South Carolina took from Clemson last week. Can the Gamecocks re-focus and salvage their season with a bowl win?
AutoZone Liberty Bowl (December 29th, Memphis, TN): Tennessee vs. North Carolina
Tennessee ends its bowl drought and finds itself in Memphis. The Vol faithful are familiar with the seven hour drive across the state and this helps the program with visibility in a traditional Ole Miss and Arkansas recruiting area. Tennessee lucks out and gets this bowl rather than Belk or Birmingham. With three Big 12 teams in the CFP and Access bowls, that leaves the Liberty Bowl, at Big 12 selection number four, without a team from that league. Look for them to reach out to North Carolina, an ACC team that is in jeopardy of not having a bowl to go to because of lack of ACC contracted bowls.
With the “group of six” bowls now filled, the last two contracted bowls will pick in this order from the remaining bowl eligible teams.
Birmingham Bowl (January 3rd, Birmingham, AL): Arkansas vs. Memphis
After the conference slates the “group of six” bowls, the Birmingham bowl chooses Arkansas to ride the Razorbacks slight wave of publicity. A match-up with Memphis will keep this from being a marquee match-up, but the bowl picks Memphis over UCF for regional purposes.
Duck Commander Independence Bowl (Dec 27th, Shreveport, LA): Texas A&M vs. Miami
In another great match-up for an early bowl, Texas A&M goes up against Miami. This is another game that will draw a good viewing for a relatively small bowl. Two potent offenses and programs with plenty of drama face each other in another SEC-ACC matchup. Texas A&M is close and Miami has the national attention to draw a good television share. This will be an entertaining appetizer to the big bowls coming up.
That’s it for contracted bowls for the SEC, but with the Big 12 not having enough bowl eligible teams to fill their contracts, that opens the Ticket City Cactus Bowl up for an at-large team, which I think they utilize to take the last bowl-eligible SEC team.
Ticket City Cactus Bowl (Jan 2nd, Tempe, AZ): Florida vs. Stanford
This is another match-up of traditional powers with down years. For the bowl, they get a Florida program that travels well and brings the added benefit of another SEC-PAC 12 match-up. With a young quarterback, key injuries, and instability at the coaching level, this selection will likely be much more about business than the match-up with Stanford.
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