13 weeks of college football action are in the books and less than two weeks remain before the bowls in general and the all-important College Football Playoff in particular announce the much anticipated match ups. Teams continue to position themselves within their own conferences and also within the broader national championship picture. As Yesh discussed in his CFP Bubble Watch piece for this week, roughly a dozen teams can still cling onto realistic chances of finishing as the last four standing if they get help in varying forms, while three (Alabama, Florida State and Oregon) essentially control their own destinies.
If we are to analyze the broader bowl eligibility race across the entire FBS spectrum, we see that 73 teams have currently won six or more games and have thus qualified to be selected. Two of those teams, Georgia Southern and Appalachian State out of the Sun Belt Conference, are in a transitional period associated with moving up from FCS in recent years and cannot be picked. That leaves 71 bowl-eligible teams with 76 slots having to be filled. Keep in mind those two aforementioned Sun Belt teams can be picked in the event there aren’t enough 6-6 or better teams.
There are two games this coming weekend involving teams who are both 5-6 (Illinois at Northwestern, Virginia at Virginia Tech), meaning at least two more teams will clinch bowl bids. Tennessee plays Vanderbilt and the Vols will look to get their sixth win of the season over a Commodores team that is winless in SEC play. Both Ohio and Akron out of the MAC need one more victory to get to six and have very winnable games against Miami (OH) and Kent State respectively who are a combined 3-18 on the year.
So after all that, it appears as if all bowl slots will be filled without any of the contingencies needing to be looked into. The worst case scenario would be a bowl having to invite a 5-7 team with the highest Academic Progress Rate score. And you thought the “student” part of the term “student-athlete” was losing its relevance in today’s win-at-all-costs landscape.
Without further ado, have a look at where we think teams will be heading for the postseason as we head into Thanksgiving weekend. John’s projections will be listed first, followed by Yesh’s.
LWOS Bowl Projections (after Week 13)
NATIONAL SEMIFINALS
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, CA: January 1, 2015, 5 pm
(1) Oregon vs. (4) Mississippi State
(2) Oregon vs. (3) Florida State
Sugar Bowl – New Orleans, LA: January 1, 2015, 8:30 pm
(2) Florida State vs. (3) Alabama
(1) Alabama vs. (4) TCU
College Football Championship Game – Arlington, TX: January 12, 2015, 8:30 pm
Rose Bowl Winner vs. Sugar Bowl Winner
OTHER NEW YEAR’S SIX BOWLS
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl – Atlanta, GA: December 31, 2014, 1 pm
Georgia vs. Michigan State
Georgia vs. Boise State
Vizio Fiesta Bowl – Glendale, AZ: December 31, 2014, 5 pm
Boise State vs. Baylor
UCLA vs. Kansas State
Capital One Orange Bowl – Miami Gardens, FL: December 31, 2014, 8:30 pm
Ohio State vs. Georgia Tech
Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic – Arlington, TX: January 1, 2014, 1 pm
TCU vs. UCLA
Baylor vs. Ohio State
THE REST OF THE BOWLS
December 20, 2014
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – New Orleans, LA – 11 am
Louisiana-Lafayette vs. UAB
Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Fresno State
Gildan New Mexico Bowl – Albuquerque, NM – 2:20 pm
San Diego State vs. UTEP
Nevada vs. Western Kentucky
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl – Las Vegas, NV – 3:30 pm, ABC
Colorado State vs. Stanford
Colorado State vs. Stanford
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Boise, ID – 5:45 pm
Nevada vs. Bowling Green
Central Michigan vs. San Diego State
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl – Montgomery, AL – 9:15 pm
Central Michigan vs. Arkansas State
Western Michigan vs. South Alabama
December 22, 2014
Miami Beach Bowl – Miami, FL – 2 pm
Temple vs. BYU
Cincinnati vs. BYU
December 23, 2014
Boca Raton Bowl – Boca Raton, FL – 6 pm
Western Kentucky vs. Western Michigan
Rice vs. Toledo
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – San Diego, CA – 9:30 pm
Navy vs. Utah State
Navy vs. Utah State
December 24, 2014
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl – Nassau, Bahamas – noon
Marshall vs. Toledo
Louisiana Tech vs. Bowling Green
Hawai’i Bowl – Honolulu, HI – 8 pm
Air Force vs. Louisiana Tech
Air Force vs. Marshall
December 26, 2014
Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl – Dallas, TX – 1 pm
Rutgers vs. Rice
Penn State vs. UTEP
Quick Lane Bowl – Detroit, MI – 4:30 pm
N.C. State vs. Maryland
Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers
Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl – St. Petersburg, FL – 8 pm
UCF vs. South Alabama
UCF vs. North Carolina
December 27, 2014
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman – Annapolis, MD – 1 pm
Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Memphis vs. Miami (FL)
Hyundai Sun Bowl – El Paso, TX – 2 pm, CBS
Miami (FL) vs. Utah
Duke vs. Utah
Duck Commander Independence Bowl – Shreveport, LA – 4 pm, ESPN2
Boston College vs. Tennessee
NC State vs. Tennessee
New Era Pinstripe Bowl – The Bronx, NY – 4:30 pm
Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Boston College vs. Nebraska
National University Holiday Bowl – San Diego, CA – 8 pm
Nebraska vs. USC
Minnesota vs. Arizona
December 29, 2014
Autozone Liberty Bowl – Memphis, TN – 2 pm
West Virginia vs. Arkansas
Houston vs. Arkansas
Russell Athletic Bowl – Orlando, FL – 5:30 pm
Louisville vs. Texas
Clemson vs. Texas
AdvoCare Texas Bowl – Houston, TX – 9 pm
Texas A&M vs. Kansas State
Texas A&M vs. West Virginia
December 30, 2014
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Nashville, TN – 3 pm
North Carolina vs. Missouri
Louisville vs. Missouri
Belk Bowl – Charlotte, NC – 6:45 pm
Duke vs. Florida
Notre Dame vs. Ole Miss
Foster Farms San Francisco Bowl – Santa Clara, CA – 10 pm
Iowa vs. Arizona
Maryland vs. USC
January 1, 2015
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl – Orlando, FL – 1 pm, ABC
Clemson vs. Auburn
Wisconsin vs. Auburn
Outback Bowl – Tampa, FL – 1 pm, ESPN2
Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
Michigan State vs. LSU
January 2, 2015
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl – Fort Worth, TX – noon
Houston vs. Northwestern
Ohio vs. Northwestern
TaxSlayer Bowl – Jacksonville, FL – 3:20 pm
Minnesota vs. LSU
Iowa vs. Florida
Valero Alamo Bowl – San Antonio, TX – 6:45 pm
Oklahoma vs. Arizona State
Oklahoma vs. Arizona State
Cactus Bowl – Tempe, AZ – 10:15 pm
Fresno State vs. Washington
Temple vs. Washington
January 3, 2015
Birmingham Bowl – Birmingham, AL – 1 pm, ESPN2
Cincinnati vs. South Carolina
Middle Tennessee State vs. South Carolina
January 4, 2015
GoDaddy Bowl – Mobile, AL – 9 pm
Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State
Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State
Bowl eligible teams projected to not get invited:
John – Ohio, Akron, Texas State
Yesh- Akron, Texas State, UAB
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