For the first time all season, there is some concern amongst SEC faithful that the near-apocalyptic prediction of the conference cannibalizing itself during the regular season and actually missing the inaugural College Football (CFB) Playoffs might actually come to fruition. With the resurgence of Texas A&M and Georgia and the continued good play from Alabama and Ole Miss, it seems as though the SEC is destined to prevent a perfect season from upstart Mississippi State. And with key games still remaining for the top two SEC contenders, it’s a real possibility that we could see a two-loss SEC Champion this year. If that happens, the conference stands a real chance of missing the first iteration of the playoffs. Let’s look at this past weekend’s SEC Week 11 Analysis, and as always, separate the reactions from the realities.
Welcome to the Donner Party: SEC Week 11 Analysis
Game of the Week:
Alabama 20, LSU 13 (OT)
The Reaction: Alabama escapes Death Valley still in the playoff hunt.
The Reality: Alabama struggled and caused many of their own problems.
Everyone knows that Death Valley is a tough place to play, particularly on a Louisiana Saturday Night. But everyone also knows that LSU is fielding a very young team that has been suspect at times this year. Alabama should be hitting its stride, impressing voters and the CFB Playoff Committee. Instead, they inexplicitly avoided their best player, had unexplainable dropped balls, crucial turnovers, and continued to struggle in the kicking game. Even with suspect playing calling a less-than-perfect performance on the field, they escaped with the win.
Alabama must tighten up the miscues quickly as they welcome top-ranked Mississippi State to town this weekend in college football’s marquee match-up. Alabama also must still play Auburn but they get to play that one in Tuscaloosa as well. With one loss, the Crimson Tide have no margin for error and not only must win, but look better than other one-loss teams. LSU had this game won if not for a kick out-of-bounds after a field goal put them ahead with a minute to go. While LSU is still a young team, they look like they have started to play well as the season has progressed. You can bet that this team will be much better next season and return to top form. Can they keep focus on this season and finish strong with three losses dampening the season in Baton Rouge?
Texas A&M 41, Auburn 38
The Reaction: Malzhan’s magic finally runs out for Auburn.
The Reality: Auburn’s loss significantly hurts the SEC.
While Alabama-LSU was the conference game of the week, this game was the most important – by far. Auburn’s loss has significant ramifications for the conference. How serious? It puts the conference in real jeopardy of not sending a team to the CFP this year. We’ll discuss that in the summary paragraph below. Auburn’s offense continued their tendencies for sluggish starts (see Kansas State, Mississippi State, et al.) but provided their customary thrilling comeback. Unfortunately for the Tigers the seemingly undeniable Malzahnian magic fanned out after two uncharacteristic fumbles in the closing minutes of the game.
Now Auburn goes from being a playoff team to having to win, on the road, to an improved Georgia team just to stay in the top half of the SEC West. Additionally, the Tigers’ defense allowed A&M freshman quarterback Kyle Allen to look like Johnny Manziel. If it seems like a familiar script for the Aggies, just look back to week 1’s demolition of South Carolina. Can the Aggies build on this game and finish their regular season strong or will they suddenly implode as they did after their hot start this season? After writing A&M off last week, it looks like they are positioning themselves for another late December game if they can keep on the right track this time.
Georgia 63, Kentucky 31
The Reaction: Georgia gets back to winning against an improved Kentucky team.
The Reality: Hutson Mason finally arrives for Georgia, albeit a little too late.
While Georgia had their customary 305 yards of rushing, the most important part of this game was Hutson Mason’s performance. Mason (13-16/174 yards/four touchdowns/0 interceptions) didn’t put up Aaron Murray like numbers, but his efficiency and red zone effectiveness freed up the box for the running game. This has been the missing ingredient for Georgia all season. If Mason can continue to complete passes at 60% or up, work multiple levels like he did on Saturday (average completion was over 10 yards) and produce in the red zone, Georgia could beat Auburn and pose a threat in the SEC Championship game. Would a two loss, SEC champion Georgia get into the CFP? It’s a little too early for that, but keep that question in the back of your head.
For Kentucky, a promising start (5-1 after six weeks) is quickly giving way to disappointment. Wildcat fans feel like they’ve been here before, and they have. Four straight losses and no bye week in the last eight weeks. They finish the season on the road for two rivalry games – Tennessee and Louisville – and need a win just to become bowl eligible after a 5-1 start. They likely won’t be favored in either contest and an inability to get to a bowl after a 5-1 start will not help the building process in Lexington. The Kentucky offense, led by quarterback Patrick Towles, does have the ability to put up numbers. Can the defense play well enough for Kentucky to get back into a bowl this season?
Florida 34, Vanderbilt 10
The Reaction: Florida goes from “Fire Muschamp” chants to “We Could Win the East”.
The Reality: Florida is still not where it wants to be.
Let me remind Florida fans what they accomplished this weekend: the same thing that Temple and every other SEC team has done this year, beating Vanderbilt. Florida is now one win away from being bowl eligible and with Eastern Kentucky on the schedule that looks quite likely. Florida fans have went from calling for coach Will Muschamp’s job to actually thinking they could win the SEC East this season. While winning the East is highly unlikely, they are in a much better position than they were a month ago. But there are still some concerns. Vanderbilt had several sustained drives against the Gators. One Gator, in probably the most bizarre turn of events outside of Tallahassee this year, actually quit the team and rode a Greyhound from Nashville to Gainesville after learning he wouldn’t start. And Muschamp continues to use quarterback Jeff Driskel in a limited role instead of letting Treon Harris get much needed repetitions in at quarterback. People might forget that this game was 17-7 and still in doubt going into the fourth quarter.
Florida fans should not be very happy with this result. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, seems to have found a glimmer of life with new freshman quarterback Johnny McCrary. McCrary is still making freshman mistakes, but he has moved the ball better than any of the other three quarterbacks to play for the Commodores this season. Still, it will be hard for Vanderbilt to get out of the season with more than three wins as they still have Mississippi State and Tennessee on the slate.
Mississippi State 45, Tennessee-Martin 16
The Reaction: Bulldogs methodically marching to the SEC championship game.
The Reality: Bulldogs are methodically marching week-to-week in the SEC.
The most impressive aspect of Mississippi State’s dream season is the consistency that they have displayed all season long. The Bulldogs continued to methodically march right along, seemingly striking the perfect balance in each game. They approached this game the same way. Mississippi State handled the game without overlooking their out-matched opponent but also prevented getting too emotionally invested. They ran a standard playbook and came out relatively unscathed as far as exposure and injuries are concerned.
This sets up the ultimate test of composure: the biggest game in program history. Mississippi State travels to Tuscaloosa to defend their top ranking this weekend in a game that will almost assuredly determine whether the Bulldogs go into the CFB Playoffs or not. Can they continue their methodical march to Atlanta and beyond?
Mississippi 48, Presbyterian 0
The Reaction: Ole Miss gets back to winning ways against overmatched opponent.
The Reality: Ole Miss gets back to winning ways against WAY overmatched opponent.
Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze’s toughest task for the rest of the season will be to continue to keep his team focused on finishing strong after heartbreak the previous two weeks. Ole Miss went from being a top ranked team to suffering two straight heartbreaking losses. Ole Miss used this glorified scrimmage against outmatched Presbyterian to get back to basics and winning ball. Bo Wallace had a good day from a decision making standpoint and the Ole Miss defense was back to their dominating ways. Of course, that’s all easy against Presbyterian. Can Ole Miss get back to top form against desperate Arkansas and destined Mississippi State?
Overall SEC Analysis:
Here is the doomsday scenario for the SEC: Alabama beats Mississippi State in Tuscaloosa, Auburn beats Alabama in the Iron Bowl and Ole Miss or Georgia beat Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl or SEC Championship game. That’s all it takes to go from three teams in the nation’s top-five to having a two-loss SEC Champion. If you assume Florida State finishes 13-0 and wins the ACC, Oregon finishes 12-1 and takes the Pac-12, and Baylor finishes 12-1 en route to the Big 12 title, then that’s three spots in the playoffs pretty much locked. Would a two-loss SEC Champion squeeze in before either a one-loss Big Ten champion or a one-loss TCU, particularly if that two-loss-team was Georgia (ugly losses against Florida and South Carolina) or Mississippi State (two losses in last four games)?
The other concern for the conference is a one-loss Mississippi State team if that one loss was in the Egg Bowl or the conference championship. Losses late in the season generally hurt a lot more than early season slip ups. A Bulldog loss against Ole Miss might drop them out of the top four. A loss in the conference championship would force the committee to choose a one-loss Mississippi State over two other conference champions, which they might be reticent to do. Of course all of this can be avoided if either Mississippi State or Alabama run the table. Either way, as exciting as this season has been to this point, it has only set the stage for the final few acts of the season. The intensity and drama will ratchet up over the next four weeks as the conference plays out its schedule and decides a champion.
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