After the news broke that Sebastian Vettel is to leave Red Bull at the end of this season there has been a huge amount of speculation about where he and other drivers will be driving next year. It is widely acknowledged that Vettel will be driving at Ferrari and he will be replacing Fernando Alonso, with the Spaniard set for a return to McLaren where he will lead the team and their renewal with Honda. Interestingly though, none of this has been confirmed. In fact the only thing that has been confirmed is that Daniel Ricciardo and Daniil Kvyat will be the race drivers for Red Bull in 2015. However, assuming Vettel does go to Ferrari and Alonso returns to McLaren, what does this mean for the competitiveness of these teams and the running order of the field? Silly season is in full swing.
Ferrari
The Scuderia look set to lose the driver who is regarded by many to be the most complete driver on the current grid in Fernando Alonso. He is going to be replaced by four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel, who has dominated the sport for the last four seasons. A fair trade, possibly even an improvement in their driver line-up some might think. It will be interesting to see how it pans out but it is hard to feel optimistic for Ferrari next year in the wake of Alonso’s departure.
If Ferrari fail to produce a truly competitive car next year, as they have done for the previous six seasons, they will really struggle. Alonso has dragged results out of his Ferrari cars that he has had no right to achieve. This has left Ferrari in positions at the end of seasons that they would not have been in had the Spaniard not been driving for them. Kimi Räikkönen has struggled this year and it would be unsurprising if he struggled again next year should the car be of this year’s quality, and Vettel, in a car that isn’t dominant for the first time five seasons, has been completely outshone by a teammate in his first season at the team spearheaded by the German. For the first time in his career Vettel has had a teammate who is a true match for him and he has been soundly beaten. Another difficult season in a car that is unlikely to be as competitive as the Red Bull he is leaving behind, and being beaten by another teammate which is plausible considering he is a soon-to-be former world champion, will raise serious questions about his credentials only because there have always been question marks over his ability in wheel-to-wheel racing and we are yet to see him consistently achieve results he theoretically shouldn’t given his machinery, as Alonso has done so excellently in previous years.
Clearly Vettel has the ability to build a team around him, and with Ferrari going through a major restructuring it could yet prove to be a brilliant move and provide the German with some more dominant years, possibly reminiscent of the Schumacher era at Ferrari.
Red Bull
Is this the beginning of the end for Red Bull? They have now not only lost their chief designer, the genius that is Adrian Newey, but also their unofficial lead driver. They will also still have Renault engines, which whilst it is expected will improve for next year it is unlikely it won’t be enough to surpass the might of the Mercedes power unit and there is the added problem that Honda are expected to provide a strong power unit for McLaren too.
Of course they will be competitive next year and it would be ignorant and stupid to write them off. They have enormous resources and the foundations of success have been more than built over the last few years. They also have two excellent drivers, who will undoubtedly be stars of the future in Ricciardo and Kvyat, but Ricciardo has only had one year with the team and Kvyat has only had one year in the sport. With regards to challenging for the title, their driver line-up next year will be vastly inexperienced compared to the line-up they have possessed for the last five seasons or so.
It will be interesting to see how they get on but if they are not careful they could start to linger around the bottom of the top four teams instead of the top. The pressure is certainly on Ricciardo and Kvyat to perform.
McLaren
2015 could be the year that sees McLaren return to winning ways. They will be the works team for Honda and Ron Dennis is very optimistic about the competitiveness of the engine they will provide. Being a works team undoubtedly is an advantage. Look at Mercedes this year and Red Bull the last four years. The last time McLaren won any sort of title back in 2008, they were the works team for Mercedes. It is an enormous advantage to be able to work so closely with the engine supplier and if Honda tap into all their resources then McLaren really could be a force to be reckoned with. It is more likely that 2016 will be the year McLaren get back to the top but if Mercedes were able to do it this year there is no reason why McLaren can’t do the same thing next season.
They have bolstered their design team and, if Alonso arrives as expected, they will have a stronger driver line-up too. Sadly it looks as though this could be Jenson Button’s last year in the sport, which is a big shame. The main concern about Alonso’s return is his how he will work with McLaren chairman, Ron Dennis. Eric Boullier will be able to act as a barrier to moderate the patchy relationship between Dennis and the Spaniard, which led to Alonso leaving after just one year into a multi-year contract in 2007. Considering what Alonso can do in a mildly competitive car they are definitely ones to watch next season.
Mercedes
It is inevitable that the rest of the field will catch up to Mercedes next year, but it is hard to know by how much. We can expect them to have the strongest power unit next year and probably the best chassis too and they will undoubtedly be leading from the front again. With all the driver moves it is also hard to find a better driver line-up across the grid. You could cite Ferrari as a challenger to that but depending on how this season finishes, Mercedes will either have two world champions in their team or a two-time world champion partnered by a very fast and consistent driver who is able to win races and fight for the championship. Should Hamilton and Rosberg carry their impressive form into next year it is hard to see them being beaten. There is a big opportunity for the Mercedes drivers to get a couple of championships under their belts here should they take advantage of the position they’re in.
All the moves at other teams with drivers, technical staff and engine suppliers leave Mercedes’ competitors with a slight feeling of the unknown going into next year. In contrast, Mercedes have consistency in all these areas and will almost certainly have both the constructors’ and drivers’ world championships to boast as well. They will be very confident. One thing for sure is that they are in a great position at the head of the pack.
Williams
A very quick word on Williams. Don’t forget about them or write them off. They have had a sensational return to form this season and we can expect to see them competing at the front again next year.
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