Reality in the SEC started to come into focus after this crazy weekend of college football. So where to begin in one of the most memorable and turbulent weekends in the history of college football? The SEC had its fair share of drama this week as a new conference order established itself on the fields. Ole Miss and Mississippi State join Auburn as the class of the SEC West while Kentucky announces itself in the East. LSU and South Carolina continue to fade. Most importantly, will the new leaders battle through to the new playoffs or will the SEC cannibalize itself during conference play for the remainder of the season? With all the drama this weekend, there is a lot of reaction today. Let’s take our weekly look at separating reaction from reality.
SEC Week 6 Analysis
Game of the Week:
Ole Miss 23, Alabama 17
The Reaction: Ole Miss asserts itself as a Top-5 team after defeating Alabama.
The Reality: Alabama is in a rebuilding phase (Must be nice to be rebuilding and still be a Top 10 team).
Oxford was the epicenter of the college football world on Saturday. ESPN’s Gameday was at the Grove for the first time and Katy Perry brought excitement to Oxford before and after the game. And the undefeated Rebels were hosting a team many considered to be the best team in the nation. The most compelling story here were the mistakes by Alabama. Two turnovers, eight penalties for 52 yards, two missed field goals, and an inability to finish drives with points doomed the Crimson Tide. Nick Saban’s process-oriented approach to game planning cannot sustain those types of mistakes. Give credit to Ole Miss, as well. The defense played aggressively and contributed to much of the Tide’s offensive mistakes. The offense, in typical Bo Wallace fashion, was feast or famine. At times they looked pedestrian and at times and looked great. While most of the reaction here is about a great Ole Miss win, it really should be about Alabama. Ole Miss must develop a consistency on offense to carry this momentum forward against Texas A&M next week and Auburn on November 1st. If they can do that, it sets up an epic Egg Bowl. For Alabama, they are 4-3 in their last seven games and 0-3 against ranked opponents (Auburn, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss). Is this a rebuilding year for Saban’s team? They’ll face another tough test next week on the road at Arkansas, another team trying to prove they belong.
Mississippi State 48, Texas A&M 31
The Reaction: Mississippi State asserts itself as a Top-5 team after defeating Texas A&M.
The Reality: Mississippi State is the best team in the SEC West – and maybe the nation.
The fact that Dan Mullen has built Mississippi State into this caliber of team and no one saw this even six weeks ago is a testament to the chaos of college football. Mississippi State is a great football team. Dak Prescott is amazing and is a definite Heisman front-runner. The Bulldog defense, mimicking their in-state rival Ole Miss, gave up yardage to the vaunted A&M offense, but did not give up many points. This game wasn’t even close, it was 48-17 with three minutes to go in the game. Texas A&M was considered the best team in the country by many people. Mississippi State has now went into Baton Rouge and soundly beaten LSU and throttled a popular CFB playoff pick at home. They get their chance to bask in the college football sunshine next week as Game Day will visit Starkville for a matchup between two Top 5 teams as Auburn comes to town.
Auburn 41, LSU 7
The Reaction: Auburn is getting hot at the right time.
The Reality: LSU is in serious trouble.
The bottom line for Tiger fans is that LSU is in trouble. Looking at their schedule, they really only have one winnable game remaining, this week against Florida, and that’s on the road. They then have Kentucky (Stop, I know what you are thinking! My retort: UK is one botched call away from being 5-0), Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas and Texas A&M. Their decline from a Top-10 team to a non-bowl eligible team was only accelerated this week by an Auburn team trying to get in stride as it aims for a berth in the CFB Playoffs. This was a tale of two teams in differing directions. Auburn moved the ball with ease while LSU struggled to muster 280 yards total. Auburn converted half of their 3rd downs, LSU was a staggering 0-13 on third down. Auburn came in with a purpose and a tested squad of veterans while LSU is shuffling quarterbacks and relying on several freshmen in key positions. Auburn is headed to the top spot in several polls while LSU is completely out after lofty preseason rankings. See LSU and Mississippi State as exhibits 1 and 2 on why preseason polls should be disallowed. Either way, Auburn still has to run the gauntlet of the SEC West starting with visiting Mississippi State this week.
Kentucky 45, South Carolina 38
The Reaction: South Carolina continues its uneven play and falls to Kentucky.
The Reality: Kentucky is a legitimate threat in the SEC East.
As I said above, Kentucky is one blown delay-of-game call away from being 5-0 with three SEC wins. That’s pretty impressive. While Kentucky still isn’t Top-25 caliber, they are a threat in the crazy SEC East. The Wildcat defense is still mediocre, but the offense has the ability to put points up on just about anyone. Kentucky has Georgia at home and Missouri in Columbia. If they can get one of those upsets and then beat a young Tennessee team on the road, then they could end up in Atlanta in December. South Carolina fans, on the other hand, have to be wondering what is going on. They start the season getting throttled by Texas A&M, then get a huge win against Georgia, blow a lead against Missouri at home and now go on the road and blow a 14-point lead late in the fourth quarter – in dramatic fashion with a pick-six no less. The offense is unreliable and the defense is very suspect. As with LSU, this is a team with lofty preseason expectations that might struggle to get to a bowl.
Florida 10, Tennessee 9
The Reaction: Tennessee lets a big game slip away.
The Reality: Neither team is ready for prime time quite yet.
This was easily the ugliest game of the week. Tennessee came in amid a lot of hype surrounding the upward momentum of the program. Florida came in under a cloud of suspicion around coach Will Muschamp’s job security and Jeff Driskel’s status as a starter. We thought Treon Harris’ performance in fourth may have earned him a shot at the position, but word out of Gainesville this morning indicates his status on the team is in jeopardy. Tennessee’s defense played well and continues to be a strength for the team. The Vol offense sputtered on multiple occasions in the red zone and failed to capitalize on several bad Florida turnovers, with inconsistent play from quarterback Justin Worley, all of the receivers and a young offensive line. The Florida offense was equally as bad, except for one drive in the fourth quarter. Florida escapes again with a bad no-call on a delay-of-game penalty during their game-winning field goal of 49 yards. This rivalry is still another year or two away from being significant on the national scene, although Muschamp’s antagonizing comments in the post-game on-field interview will ensure the intensity stays in this rivalry.
Georgia 44, Vanderbilt 17
The Reaction: Georgia keeps up pace in SEC East race.
The Reality: Georgia is becoming the most consistent team in SEC East.
Vanderbilt is still bad. Their offense still can’t be effective and the defense joined the list of teams run over by Georgia’s running backs. Georgia, however, is becoming more and more consistent with each week. With a disappointing game against South Carolina behind them, they seem to have a clear path to the SEC Championship game, barring an upset by Missouri. Georgia fans are starting to see a matchup with a battered SEC West Champ with a CFB Playoff spot on the line. Georgia fans, however, know this more than most: just when Georgia’s expectations get high is when Georgia usually falters. If they stay healthy, steady and can get a little more impact from Hutson Mason, expect to see the Dawgs in Atlanta in December.
Overall SEC Analysis:
It’s Week 6 and we can finally start talking about an ordering of teams and possible trips to Atlanta based on body of work rather than preseason hype and expectations. The West – if this is possible – seems even better than we thought. Ole Miss and Mississippi State are clearly national Top-10 teams. Auburn is clearly one of the best teams in the nation as well. Alabama and Texas A&M, even with loses this weekend, are still Top 10-caliber teams. Arkansas is clearly a better team and LSU, even though they are struggling, is not an easy out…just ask Wisconsin. Things in the East aren’t as pretty. Georgia seems to have taken control with Missouri and Kentucky as the only contenders. South Carolina is maddeningly unpredictable. Florida and Tennessee are works-in-progress and Vanderbilt is the only bad team in the conference. As we march on to December, we are finally starting to see more reality than reaction.
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