Last week I wrote a piece about a relatively unknown reliever for the Boston Red Sox named Tommy Layne. In it, I expressed the opinion that Layne could and should be in the running to fill Koji Uehara’s shoes as closer once Uehara is no longer with the team, be it through free agency or retirement.
The Red Sox clearly have an interest in retaining Uehara beyond this season, even though the closer is an impending free agent and will be 40 when the 2015 season opens. If the Sox did not want to keep him around, they would have shipped him off at the trade deadline like they did with all the other players in the final year of their contracts. There was certainly no lack of interest from other teams. Beyond that, Uehara is still a fine closer, and though a guy like Layne might be capable of succeeding Uehara, I saw no reason at the time I wrote that article for the change to happen now or even in the near future.
Yet in just one week, things have begun to shift; not enough to begin having a serious discussion about the Red Sox making a change in their ninth inning plans, but still enough to perhaps make John Farrell take a closer look at the situation. Koji is usually lights out, but recently he has been leaving the lights on a bit too often. Over the last seven days, Uehara has pitched just two and a third innings, yet has given up eight hits, six runs, and a walk while striking out just two. That includes a five-run implosion against the Seattle Mariners last Friday. August has not been kind to Uehara. In 11.1 innings, he has a 5.56 ERA and has raised his season ERA by almost one run per-inning, albeit to a still very respectable 2.25. And while he was not charged with an earned run in Monday’s 4-3 win over the Toronto Blue Jays, he still allowed all three runners that he inherited from Clay Buchholz to score, blowing his second straight save opportunity. Lately there have been fewer high fives in High Five City.
Koji may not admit it, but his recent struggles are, in all likelihood, a product of his heavy workload over the past two seasons. Prior to 2013, Uehara had only pitched more than 60 innings twice in his career; he threw 66.2 in 2009 with the Baltimore Orioles, and 65 total innings for Baltimore and the Texas Rangers in 2011. He had not thrown more than 44 innings in any other season prior to joining Boston, and had not thrown back-to-back seasons of 60-plus innings. Last year, however, he pitched 74.1 innings, well eclipsing his previous single season high, and did so at the age of 38. Now at the age of 39, Uehara has already pitched 60 innings this season. Including last season’s playoffs, Uehara has pitched 148 innings over the last two seasons, compared to just 103.1 in the previous two seasons. No other reliever has been as active as Uehara since the start of 2013. Looking beyond innings pitched, Uehara threw 1,049 pitches in 2013, his highest total since 2009. Combined with the 877 pitches he’s tossed this season, that makes 1,926 over the last two seasons, compared to just 1,450 in the two seasons prior.
The Red Sox would be crazy to give up on Uehara after one bad month. His August outings are not representative of his ability or his season as a whole. When he is on, there are few pitchers in baseball who can match his consistency. The question now is not who should replace Uehara next season, but should the Red Sox replace him for the remainder of this season. There is no doubt in my mind that Uehara will still be the team’s closer next season, and he should be. Despite his age, the Red Sox do not yet need to name his successor, though perhaps the timeline for finding one has moved up just a bit.
It would make sense for the Red Sox to shut Uehara down for the rest of the season. Because of the fatigue, he isn’t finishing his pitches, which means his splitter, as well as his other pitches, don’t have the action they should and miss their intended locations. They have nothing left to play for, and Uehara has worked harder over the last two seasons than he has during any other stretch of his career. There is no point in continuing to overwork him, and to do so would jeopardize his ability to contribute at all next season. Shut him down and get him back to full strength. If the Red Sox intend, as they have claimed, to compete next season, they will need Uehara to be ready to go. In addition, it would give the organization a chance to find out if they do have anyone else capable of closing games, should the need ever arise. I’ll repeat what I said last week, that Koji Uehara is still a formidable closer, but amend it by simply stating that even he could use a break.
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