Welcome to the third installment of ADP analysis. By comparing my rankings to average draft position data from ESPN, I’ve found the players that are currently being taken far too high and low, so that you don’t make the same mistakes in your draft. Having already covered quarterbacks and running backs, this instalment looks at wide receivers. If you want more fantasy advice, including staff consensus rankings, make sure you check out the Last Word on Sports fantasy football guide.
Fantasy football: Wide Receiver ADP analysis
Overdrafted
1) Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
My ranking- 26, ADP ranking- 11, Average round taken in a 10 team league- 4
Johnson’s current ADP would suggest he is a WR1 in any league with more than 10 teams, but this is not the case. He has only participated in three days of camp so far, after holding out of OTAs and the start of camp, as well as asking for a trade, due to his dissatisfaction with the team around him; and then suffering a pulled hamstring on the 28th of July. Not only is Johnson showing signs of his age (he is now 33), but there is a clear lack of motivation and desire from the Texans former first round pick.
This should send alarm bells ringing in the heads of every fantasy football player, as this is a combination which doesn’t bode well for the upcoming season. This is only made worse by the Texans QB situation and likelihood that Johnson will lose targets to second-year wide out DeAndre Hopkins. Although Johnson could still have fantasy value this season, especially if he is traded elsewhere or Arian Foster gets injured, he is currently being taken way too high.
2) Danny Amendola, New England Patriots
My ranking- 59, ADP ranking- 42, Average round taken in a 10 team league- 12
Amendola’s first year with the Patriots was a frustrating one for both him and his fantasy owners. A combination of injuries and the emergence of Julian Edelman meant the former Ram had more games where he had no catches than he put up 10 points. Unfortunately for Amendola, things don’t look like they will be getting much better this year.
Amendola has a long injury history, and has not taken part in more than 75% of his team’s games in a year since his first two seasons in the NFL. He will also find it hard to increase his target numbers this year, with Edelman’s role as the Patriots slot receiver set in stone and others either returning from their injuries or progressing from difficult first years. As a result, it is tough to see Amendola improving significantly on his 2013 numbers, if at all. He therefore isn’t good value at the moment with an ADP almost 20 places above his 2013 position ranking.
3) Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns
My ranking- 90, ADP ranking- 48, Average round taken in a 10 team league- 14
First, let me clarify; Gordon’s place in this article is based on his current ban and appeal situation. If Gordon is successful in his appeal (which is by no means impossible) then his ranking and ADP will justifiably rise. Even though he is still a risky proposition (he has a history of drug trouble and has a court hearing for a DUI charge later in August), his production from last year suggests he should again put up WR1 numbers.
But that is a big if. His large number of previous suspensions (on top of his suspension last year, as he failed at least three drugs tests while at Baylor and Utah), a pending DUI, and the NFL’s all-or-nothing appeal policy means I can’t see him being able to play this year. As a result, it is hard to justify taking him in the draft at the moment, unless you have a very large bench.
Underdrafted
1) Cordarelle Patterson, Minnesota Vikings
My ranking- 17, ADP ranking- 24, Average round taken in a 10 team league-8
Despite a slow start to his rookie year (which was also only his fourth year ever of football), Patterson finished well, putting up strong numbers through a mix of receiving and rushing. The former Tennessee standout was targeted at least five times in the final seven games of the year, and found the endzone in all of the last five. In fact he finished the season so well that if you had projected his numbers from the final four weeks over the whole season, Patterson would have lead wide receivers in fantasy points last year. With another offseason to develop and the chance for more targets over the whole season, Patterson has the potential to turn into a good WR2, if not more.
2) Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys
My ranking- 23, ADP ranking- 37, Average round taken in a 10 team league-10
Another player who showed flashes of potential in his rookie year, Williams put up 56 fantasy points in weeks 5-8 and ended the year with an impressive 16.7 yards per catch (fourth among receivers with at least 40 catches). As Tony Romo’s secondary receiving option, Williams should see a boost in targets as a result of the hire of Scott Linehan (under Linehan, Mathew Stafford had more than 630 attempts in all of the past three seasons; Romo has surpassed 550 only once), on top of now having had more time to improve. Currently being pick as a WR4, Williams should offer flex value or higher as long as he can produce more consistently in his second season.
3) Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers
My ranking- 38, ADP ranking- 49, Average round taken in a 10 team league-14
Despite the lack of success of rookie wide receivers over the years, there is usually at least one who ends up being started in every league. Despite not being the most talented player in this class, Kelvin Benjamin is likely to be that person because of the situation he is in. Without any other respectable receiver on the roster, Kelvin Benjamin will see a substantial number of targets this season, and should put up good fantasy numbers as a result. After a good first preseason game and glowing reports coming out of camp, Benjamin looks likely to be a good pickup those who have taken him (he is currently only owned in 29% of leagues), and offers great value with such a low ADP.
Thank you for reading. Please take a moment to follow me on Twitter – @N1CKF5 and@lwosfantasy. Make sure you support LWOS by following the site on Twitter – @LastWordOnSport – and by “liking” the Facebook page.
Football fans… check out our two partnered NFL podcasts – Thursday Night Tailgate Radio and Overtime Ireland. Both shows bring you interesting commentary, critical analysis and fantastic guests including former and current NFL players, coaches and personalities.
For the latest sports injury news, check out our friends at Sports Injury Alert.
Main Photo:
