With the build up to fantasy football now in full swing, and many people doing mock drafts (you can read why you should be taking part in them in Casey Bowman’s great article), we can start to get a picture where many players are likely to get picked using average draft position (ADP) data. Although this will change as we get closer to the start of the year, the information is very useful when deciding on your draft strategy, especially when comparing how much you like a player relative to everyone else.
With this in mind, I have used data from ESPN’s mock drafts to rank players by position, and compared them to my own (if you want to see a full list of player rankings, make sure you check out Last Word on Sport and @LWOSfantasy next week for the reveal of the 2014 LWOS FF rankings), to find out which players are currently being over and under-drafted, so that you don’t make the same mistakes in your fantasy draft. Here is a look at Quarterback ADP versus my rankings to find those that are over and under drafted.
Over-drafted
1) Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles
My ranking-14, ADP ranking-8, Average round taken in a 10 team league- 7
To start, let me be clear- I am not suggesting Nick Foles is going to have a bad year. As the starting QB of one of the most dangerous offenses in the league, he will put up decent numbers, as seen by averaging over 25 PPG last year. But this number will decline in 2014, for multiple reasons. Most importantly, it is highly likely that his interception number will increase this season. Averaging one interception every five games was a fantastic feat, but it is highly difficult to repeat, and should not be expected.
Secondly, the Eagles have lost their star receiver DeSean Jackson in the offseason, and although they have brought in Darren Sproles and Jordan Mathews, I don’t think they can replace his production, even as a duo. Finally, the eagles have a much tougher schedule this year, with the 18th best QB FF SOS compared to the 6th last year. Although Nick Foles will still produce well, there are other great QBs available later on who should give you a similar production across the year
2) Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns
My ranking-26, ADP ranking-18, Average round taken in a 10 team league- 13
Saying Johnny Football has come into the NFL with some hype is like saying Brazil’s exit from the World Cup was a bit of a disappointment. Many (including myself) expect him to become a great player, and some predict he could become a fantasy star in his first year. But right now, taking him as the 18th QB is not a good move.
He undoubtedly has potential, but before he becomes worthy of being taken in the same round as Andy Dalton and Ben Roethlisberger (as he currently is), he must become the Browns starting QB. But even after this, he has to overcome having no wide receivers who had over 40 catches last year (and only one who had more than 25) and the second toughest schedule for QBs in terms of FF scoring. He could turn into a star, but there are other, safer options at this stage.
3) Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings
My ranking-33, ADP ranking- 25, Average round taken in a 10 team league- 15
Another player who may not even start to begin the season, Teddy is still being taken as a QB2 in leagues of 14 or more teams. Considering the team’s heavy reliance on Adrian Peterson, and other available options (both Jake Locker and Sam Bradford are usually taken after him), it doesn’t make sense to me to currently draft Bridgewater, at least as high as he is being taken at the moment.
Under-drafted
1) Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
My Ranking- 6, ADP ranking- 12, Average round taken in a 10 team league-9
The player who I believe is currently being most criminally miss-drafted is Matt Ryan. I can understand why some people may be wary of him, after he finished 2013 as the 11th ranked fantasy QB. But this is a blip, after finishing in the top eight in the previous three seasons. With Julio Jones and Roddy White now back and the offensive line improved by the acquisitions of Jon Asamoah and Jake Mathews, Ryan should bounce back and become a stud QB again. He currently offers great value to fantasy football players looking to pick up a top QB late.
2) Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
My ranking- 18, ADP ranking-24, Average round taken in a 10 team league-15
Considering Tannehill was sacked almost 60 times last year (and pressured many more) thanks to the mess that was the Dolphins offensive line, he did quite well to finish as the 16th best QB. He also improved on his completion %, QB rating and number of TD from his first year. With Brandon Albert, JuWuan James and Billy Turner all upgrading the offensive line, Tannehill should put up numbers more than worthy of being a team’s QB2 in any standard scoring league.
3) Sam Bradford, St Louis Rams
My ranking- 22, ADP ranking- 27, Average round taken in a 10 team league- 16
It quite understandable to be cautious about drafting Sam Bradford- he has missed 25% of his first four seasons due to injury, and has a decent, if uninspiring setup around him. But last season was Bradford’s best until his injury, ranking 12th for points per game (higher than Colin Kaepernick and Tony Romo). He also finished the year with his highest ever completion %, yards per game and TD%. He may be a risk due to his injury history, but if nothing else it is worth drafting him late and trading him away if he starts to pick up a head of steam, and would be a smarter pick than any rookie QB.
For the latest sports injury news, check out our friends at Sports Injury Alert.
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