Speculation on Fernando Alonso’s future with Ferrari is regaining traction, set in motion by the F1 star’s cryptic tweet; “A thing that’s not true, even if is copied a thousand times, will remain false.”
Alonso’s caginess on his future with Ferrari, McLaren’s refusal to hint at their driver line-up for 2015 and tantalising hints dropped by all parties continue to fuel speculation that Alonso could make an improbable return to McLaren next year.
For many though, the prospect of Alonso returning to McLaren is difficult to imagine, given the open warfare which erupted between the two after Alonso’s stint with the Woking-based outfit in 2007. Importantly, Alonso is still under contract with Ferrari until the end of 2016.
But is one awful year enough for a great driver and a prestigious team to limit their chances in the Championship? Alonso has one goal above all others, and that is to earn his third world title and in doing so join the immortals of the sport such as Ayrton Senna, Jack Brabham, Jackie Stewart and Niki Lauda.
On the face of it, McLaren are not in the best position to help Alonso achieve his goal. After finishing second to Red Bull in the 2011 Constructors’ Championship and third in 2012, McLaren’s Annus Horribilis came in 2013 when they slipped to fifth place behind Lotus. Despite showing positive signs, the Woking-based team currently sit in sixth place. It seems counter-intuitive then that anyone hunting a world title would tear up a contract with Ferrari to join a team that has been in freefall over recent years.
In the context of McLaren making the switch to Honda power in 2015 however, the move (unlikely as it is) is not impossible and worthy of consideration.
Alonso and McLaren: A history of unpleasantness
2007 saw McLaren pair defending World Champion Alonso with promising rookie Lewis Hamilton, a combination which held the promise of a banner year for the team.
What followed was one of the most turbulent seasons in recent times, from which nobody at McLaren would emerge without some bruising. Those who think the relationship between Hamilton and Nico Rosberg is tense ought to look to the 2007 Alonso/Hamilton pairing for a truly dysfunctional relationship. The scraps between the pair are likely to have cost them their chance at the world title that year.
Tensions spilled over in Hungary, when Alonso obstructed Hamilton’s pit stop during qualifying to prevent Hamilton setting a time in his final lap, after Hamilton ignored a team order to allow his team mate have track position. That action would eventually see Alonso stripped of pole position for that race and set off a chain of events that would be far more damaging for McLaren.
After the Hungarian GP, Alonso told team boss Ron Dennis that he possessed evidence that McLaren engaged in espionage, soliciting and receiving confidential data from within Ferrari. Dennis reported this conversation to former F1 boss Max Mosley, setting off a further round of investigations that would eventually see McLaren excluded from the Constructors’ Championship and fined $100 million (US).
$100 million fines and the cancellation of everything an organisation works for, are the sorts of things that tend to put a lasting strain on the employer/employee relationship.
Why 2015 could be the year to forget, if not forgive.
In 2013 then McLaren Team Principal Martin Whitmarsh set tongues wagging when he indicated he would welcome Alonso at McLaren.
If Whitmarsh set tongues wagging then Alonso sent them in to overdrive, when he said his problem wasn’t with McLaren, his problem was with ‘one man’. That one main is believed to be Dennis, at the time working elsewhere, but now with McLaren in an executive role.
The return of Dennis does not necessarily threaten the deal, but the question of who would have to make way for Alonso- Jenson Button or Kevin Magnussen, the latter of whom McLaren has invested heavily in- is probably a more significant impediment.
Setting aside the fact that Alonso is among the most talented drivers on the grid, the possibility of Alonso bringing Santander sponsorship to the negotiating table would be a very powerful means of wiping out past hurts. McLaren has been unable to secure a title sponsor this year, resulting in the MP4-29 being one of the most dull and anonymous cars on the grid. Spanish banking giant Santander has indicated they want to continue working with Spanish driver Alonso, and the opportunity for Santander to gain exposure in Japan through the Honda connection is sure to hold some appeal.
Honda and McLaren: Multifaceted appeal
The introduction of Honda power is a huge factor. Without it, the prospect of Alonso moving to McLaren would not be entertained for as long as it has. On the practical front, Honda have been able observe how the new regulations have unfolded in 2014, and will have access to masses of data in designing their engine for 2015. This potentially gives Honda a significant advantage. Honda already has a demonstrated history of innovation in consumer hybrid technology, this could also be a signal of the Japanese manufacturer’s ability to deliver a serious power unit from day one.
From a less practical point, the prospect of taking the wheel in a Honda powered McLaren may hold an intangible appeal for Alonso, who has idolised Ayrton Senna since boyhood. Senna drove a McLaren powered by Honda to most of his victories, giving the McLaren-Honda pairing a unique prestige in the field. The opportunity to join Senna on the list of three time World Champions in a Honda powered McLaren may be enough to lure Alonso to McLaren.
If Alonso were to return Woking, conspiracy theorists will have a field day every time Alonso’s engine blows a puff of blue smoke, in the same way there are those who seriously assert Mercedes would rig their own car to slam itself into a wall in Germany and spontaneously combust in Hungary, there would be those eager to sensationalise any form of mechanical failure as “Ron’s Revenge”.
What it really comes down to though, is if Alonso feels McLaren offer him his best chance at that third title and McLaren, including Dennis, feel that Alonso is the best driver they can obtain, then a deal will be done.
While there are very strong indications Alonso will stay put at Ferrari, the factors that speak for a deal mean that it ought to be considered a real possibility at present.
One cannot forget that a primary reason the McLaren spying scandal was able to occur was the ‘win at all costs’ mentality the team had under Dennis. If forgetting the past and signing Alonso is the price of victory, it is a small price to pay.
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