With a little over a month to go until the start of the Premiership, which teams will be eying up the prize, and the drop come next April? Here are my picks for the playoff and the two teams who will be slugging it out to avoid relegation.
2014-15 Aviva Premiership Forecast
Northampton Saints: Last year’s champions; Northampton had a very impressive year winning the Premiership domestically, the Amlin Cup in Europe and just coming short in the LV cup final. With a host of big names; England’s Dylan Hartley, Ben Foden, Courtney Lawes and Tom Wood and with the giant Welsh winger George North, Saints will be hugely competitive and don’t look past them to add to their maiden title.
Saracens: The biggest set up and the deepest pockets in the Premiership couldn’t yield them any silverware last year, which will hurt the squad immensely, and with the loss of talismanic captain Steve Borthwick to retirement it will be a tougher season for Saracens. With such a vast and talented squad and with Allianz Park becoming a fortress, Saracens will be competing in the Spring and will be hoping to add to their solitary title in 2011.
Leicester Tigers: The big dogs or should that be cats, the most successful team in English rugby history, no matter what happens they are always in the hunt for trophies. With the signing of young England star Freddie Burns to replace club stalwart Toby Flood, Leicester will be looking to recreate their vivtory in 2013 and I can’t see any reason why they won’t. Always strong in the forwards and with some attacking flair with Matthew Tait, Manu Tuialgi and Freddie Burns they will be very tough to beat and should rack up a few bonus points.
Harlequins: My final pick for the playoff spot may raise a few eyebrows; despite winning the title in 2012 Harlequins were not all that impressive last season. But the way they finished the season; to time their run to reach the playoffs was very reminiscent of the vintage Wasps side that won so much in the early 2000s. England quartet of Danny Care, Joe Marler, Mike Brown and Captain Chris Robshaw are a mighty backbone of any team. Furthermore the emergence of hooker Dave Ward, and Flanker Luke Wallace they really are a force to be reckoned with, the addition of the evergreen Nick Easter doesn’t weaken their case in any way either. Arguably the biggest signing of the year in Marlon Yarde, who I think will thrive in the Harlequins offloading style, Harlequins will be a handful for any team, and if the ground stays firm I think they could go all the way.
At the other end of the table which teams will be fighting to stay in the top flight?
London Welsh: It’s hard to look past the new boys, apart from Exeter Chiefs; the newly promoted are invariably the newly relegated. London Welsh who were promoted in 2012 only to be relegated at the end of the season, have spent big over the summer signing world cup winner Piri Weepu and talented fly half Olly Barkley, but I believe they are repeating the mistakes they made at their last attempt in the Premiership. Big name signing may sell shirts, but to survive in the premiership you need a squad that all plays to the same sheet of music. That’s what Rob Baxter did at Exeter, he built a squad that played good rugby, not relying on the superstars. Exeter were very hard to beat the year they came up, since joining the premiership Exeter have had two seasons in the elite European competition and have beaten all comers. This is the model that London Welsh should have use. That is very easy to say however, as of course the resources must be in place first for this to occur.
London Irish: Not that long ago Irish were dining at the top of the Premiership challenging for titles, but that seems a long time ago now, finishing 10th last year thanks to some good results at the end of the season. Things look even bleaker now, Irish have lost their two best backs, Marlon Yarde has moved to Twickenham to play for Harlequins and James O’Connor has moved to European giants Toulon. Irish haven’t been able to replace their talent and try scoring ability and I think they will struggle.
So who will win and who will be playing the 2nd tier? I feel Saracens will come out on top, their spending power is just too great not to win, and this year will be their year in my opinion.
London Welsh to face the drop for me, it will be closer than last year with Worcester only winning two games, but the lack of a cohesive squad and no to little experience of the top flight I think will see them lose the tight games, which in the end, is the difference between a great season and a disastrous one.
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