With the NFL division breakdown series in full swing, the next division in focus is the NFC North.
The black and blue division saw three quarterbacks go down injured last year and three coaching changes in the offseason. The perennial division champs in Green Bay will have tough competition in a group which could see three winning records come by the end of the season.
Quarterback
The Best: GB The Rest: DET, CHI, MIN
It’s hard to argue against Aaron Rodgers being the best in this division. He has dominated the passing game since he took over from Brett Favre and it was evident how much he means to the team when he went down with a broken collarbone last season. The team limped into the playoffs with only two wins during the weeks Rodgers was out.
Detroit’s Matthew Stafford is the other big arm in the division and it would be hard to argue that he is not better than Jay Cutler of Chicago, who has been good enough to win games (and a large contract), but will never be titled “elite.” Minnesota should be improved over last season no matter who starts.
Running Back
The Best: MIN The Rest: CHI, GB, DET
While he had a down season last year, Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson is still one of the finest running backs in the league. Last season was marred by injury and he faced more eight-in-the-box defenses than any other running back in the league. Look for his receiving yards to increase under the new coaching scheme.
Matt Forte has been a main stay in Chicago since he arrived and he is always reliable. Eddie Lacy finally solved the Packers running issues and gave them a legitimate weapon last season. Reggie Bush gave Detroit stability in the backfield, something they have not had for several years and he has shown his strength in the passing game. It is interesting to note that all four of these running backs had over 1000 yards last year in a division known for its passing.
Wide Receiver
The Best: DET The Rest: CHI, MIN, GB
This was a coin toss between Detroit, who has Megatron and Golden Tate, and Chicago. I think Detroit has done enough this off season with the additions of Tate and Ebron at TE to allow Johnson to be a little more open, not that you could cover him anyway. Expect Johnson’s numbers to be slightly smaller as the offense will become a little more spread out.
Chicago has Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, who both ranked in the top five for receiving yards last season. These two have shown to be an amazing tandem at the position. It is hard to argue that any of the teams in this group have bad wide receivers, with the likes of Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson, who should have an outstanding year in Minnesota, and Jordy Nelson in Green Bay. This division is a tough division when it comes to weapons on offense.
Tight End
The Best: MIN The Rest: CHI, DET, GB
It is hard to say what makes a good tight end; the position is going through a change, as seen in the franchise tag issue of Saints tight end Jimmy Graham. With this in mind, I have to go with Minnesota at this position, as Kyle Rudolph has proven that he can be elite. His season was cut short with injury last season, but with Norv Turner’s tight end-friendly offense, expect him to have a monster contract year.
Both Chicago and Detroit are hot on the heals of Minnesota when it comes to talent. Martellus Bennett had a very respectable season fior the Bears last year, racking up nearly 800 yards and five touchdowns. Detroit used their first round pick on Eric Ebron, and many have compared him to the aforementioned Graham. He should fit in well in the Lions offense. The only team who has concerns at tight end is the Packers, who released Jermichael Finley earlier this offseason. Training camp will tell who develops as their starting tight end.
Offensive Line
The Best: MIN The Rest: DET, GB, CHI
Surprisingly, the Vikings, for all of their flaws, has a solid offensive line; the addition of David Yankey in the draft could complete their offensive line, solving the weak left guard position. The tandem of Brandon Fusco and Phil Loadholt on the right side along with center John Sullivan has produced one of the best running offensive lines in the league. I expect this group to be top five contenders at the end of the year.
Each of the remaining teams should see a marked improvement from last year. Detroit allowed the second fewest sacks last season, while Green Bay and Chicago had two of the most improved lines last year after abysmal seasons before. Everybody remembers Jay Cutler shouting at his offensive line. Keeping the pressure off of the quarterback will be what determines how well these groups rank, especially after so many injuries last season.
Defensive Line
The Best: DET The Rest: MIN, CHI, GB
There is no arguing about how good Detroit’s defensive line is. Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley are just beasts that demolish opposing offensive lines. Suh has solved some of his anger issues and as long as he does not have a relapse, the Lions defensive line should be dominant again in 2014. The coaching staff change brought about a change in philosophy at the position as well. The players are no longer being confined to lining up at one position, as they now move up and down the line.
Yes, Minnesota lost Jared Allen to Chicago, but he has become a one-trick pony. Look for Mike Zimmer’s defensive line to become aggressive and noticeably improved. Speaking of Allen, his addition to Chicago gives them a proven quarterback killer, but it is yet to be seen how he handles rotation. Green Bay’s 3-4 defensive system means that the defense is dependent on linebackers to come up more often. A drop in performance by B.J. Raji last year means he is on a ‘prove it’ 1-year deal this offseason. If the group doesn’t improve, expect them to remain last come the end of the season.
Linebacker
The Best: GB The Rest: DET, MIN, CHI
A.J. Hawk, Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers… need I say more? These players have proven how good they can be. My only worry is Peppers, who is 34 and changing position. Injuries are another worry, with the spate of season-ending injuries across the league at the position and Matthews’ broken hand last season still being fresh in the memory.
Detroit actually had the better linebacker group last season over Green Bay, who had several injuries, so look for them to be nipping at the Packers’ toes. Both Minnesota and Chicago had a terrible group of linebackers last season. The reason Minnesota ranks third here is because of the new system Zimmer is installing and the draft selection of Anthony Barr at strong side linebacker.
Cornerback
The Best: CHI The Rest: GB, MIN, DET
In a division that boasts some of the best wide receivers in the league, you need some of the best cornerbacks to challenge them. Chicago used their first-round pick to select Kyle Fuller, who will be a nice addition to one of the more aggressive groups of defensive backs in the league.
Outside of a solid group at Green Bay, including potential shutdown corner Sam Shields, the rest of the division is hard to tell. Detroit is in turmoil when it comes to injury-prone players and they recently cut Chris Houston because of his injury troubles. The Lions still have no true No. 1 cornerback. Over in Minnesota, the Vikings are coming off the worst season in team history when it comes to points allowed. The addition of Captain Munnerlyn and the return of Xavier Rhodes should help this group improve dramatically.
Safety
The Best: GB The Rest: MIN, CHI, DET
This was quite a hard group to distinguish, as all four units were equally bad last year and all four made moves to fix the position during the offseason. Green Bay gets the nod at the top because they drafted Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (his real name) in the 1st round. They should have a pair of shutdown safeties with Morgan Burnett returning at strong side safety.
Harrison Smith is back after a short season last year, and he has proven that he is a playmaker at the position and his aggression should suit the new look defense of the Vikings nicely. Chicago has one of the most aggressive defenses in the league when it comes to getting the ball, but this has left them open to missing tackles. The addition of Brock Vereen during the draft should help them stay competitive. While everyone else in the division drafted at the position, the Lions solved their problems via free agency, signing James Ihedigbo from the Ravens. With so many talented wide receivers stretching the field in this division, expect the safeties to get a workout.
Special Teams
The Best: MIN The Rest: GB, CHI, DET
This was a no-brainer, as the one true strength of Minnesota besides Adrian Peterson is the special teams. Cordarrelle Patterson tied the record for the longest kickoff return in his first year and by the end of the season teams were afraid to kick to him. Marcus Sherels had the most yards as a punt returner in the league. Blair Walsh has been a solid kicker since he was drafted and he is already learning about the nuances of kicking outside for the next two years. The only blip on the unit’s radar has been the inconsistent play of punter Jeff Locke.
Letting Devin Hester walk in free agency left Chicago with a big question mark when it comes to returning duties. He lead the league in returning yards last season. Mason Crosby was solid on kicking duty last season and he is the only reason the Packers finished ahead of Chicago. It is hard to know what to make of Detroit’s special team, as they have a battle amongst kickers again this training camp after drafting Nate Freese in the 7th round.
2014 Prediction
The Best: GB The Rest: CHI, DET, MIN
This is hard to predict, but Green Bay gets the nod as they are the most stable. All of the other teams have had changes in coaching and schemes, and as I said at the start, three teams could come out of this season with winning records. This could be the toughest division in the league. After a poor showing from the division last season, expect each team to show that they are no pushovers, especially in Minnesota. If the Vikings sort out their quarterback situation early, they could be dark horses to make it into the playoffs.
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