With the NFL division breakdown series in full swing, the next division in focus is the AFC South. The Indianapolis Colts cake walked to the AFC South title in 2013 in what many would argue was the worst division in football. While the Colts should have little trouble repeating as division champs, a lackluster offseason in Indy has allowed the Titans, Jags, and Texans to close the gap.
With training camp just around the corner, here’s a position-by-position breakdown of the AFC South, with “the best” at each position being followed by “the rest” in descending order.
Quarterback
The Best: IND The Rest: TEN, HOU, JAX
The biggest no-brainer on the list and the reason the Colts will be among the favorites in the AFC for years to come. While Andrew Luck needs to improve his accuracy (he ranked 24th last season in completion percentage) and show a bit more consistency to be considered among the NFL’s elite, he is still light years ahead of anything else the division has to offer.
Tennessee’s Jake Locker is the only other starter in the division with a chance to be the long term answer at QB, but with his contract set to expire at the end of this season, he’ll have to produce to make that a reality. Chad Henne will hold down the fort in Jacksonville until rookie Blake Bortles is ready to take the reigns, while Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the nod in Houston as their search for a franchise QB continues.
Running Back
The Best: HOU The Rest: TEN, IND, JAX
With their failure to address the quarterback position in the offseason, the Texans will lean heavily on former All-Pro running back Arian Foster, who hopes to return to form after an injury-plagued 2013. Foster is just a season removed from leading the NFL in touchdowns and should immediately improve a Texans offense that struggled to score points en route to the league’s worst record last season.
All three of the other teams in the division saw their leading rusher from a season ago depart during the offseason: Chris Johnson in Tennessee, Maurice Jones-Drew in Jacksonville, and Donald Brown in Indianapolis. Indy hopes to get more production out of Trent Richardson, who cost them their first round pick in this year’s draft, while free agent pickup Toby Gerhart in Jacksonville and veteran Shonn Greene in Tennessee (along with 2014 second rounder Bishop Sankey) will get the bulk of the carries for their squads.
Wide Receiver
The Best: IND The Rest: HOU, TEN, JAX
The Colts get perennial Pro Bowler Reggie Wayne back from injury to add to emerging star T.Y. Hilton and veteran free agent acquisition Hakeem Nicks. Indy made a somewhat surprising choice by drafting Ole Miss receiver Donte Moncrief in the third round of this year’s draft, but with both Wayne and Nicks in contract years, Moncrief should provide insurance if either of those veterans moves on after next year.
Despite expressing his disappointment in the offseason with the franchise’s lack of success during his career, expect Andre Johnson to be back in uniform with Houston alongside second year man DeAndre Hopkins to give the Texans a potent one-two punch at receiver. The Titans hope Kendall Wright continues to blossom after losing Kenny Britt to free agency, while the Jags gave future starter Blake Bortles a couple of solid weapons with draft picks Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson.
Tight End
The Best: IND The Rest: TEN, JAX, HOU
Indy gets Dwayne Allen back from a season-ending hip injury to pair with fellow third year man Cody Fleener. Allen has looked good this offseason and Fleener is looking to improve upon an up-and-down sophomore season. Look for Indy to utilize a two tight end set more frequently to take advantage of their impressive young tandem.
Tennessee and Jacksonville have proven veterans on their roster in Delanie Walker and Marcedes Lewis, both of whom should play key roles in the passing game this year. The Texans have a solid young threesome in Garrett Graham, Ryan Griffith, and rookie C.J. Fiedorowicz, but they lack experience compared to their divisional counterparts.
Offensive Line
The Best: HOU The Rest: TEN, IND, JAX
The Texans are the best of an admittedly mediocre lot as they boast two of the best in the game at their respective positions: left tackle Duane Brown and center Chris Myers. The trouble spot remains right tackle, were Derek Newton struggled mightily last season.
All four teams in the division drafted O-lineman in one of the first three rounds of this year’s draft, with Tennessee’s Taylor Lewan the most likely to make an immediate impact. The Colts got decent play out of their tackles last year but the rest of the line leaves a lot to be desired. The Jags hope free agent guard Zane Beadles and last year’s first rounder Luke Joeckel provide some stability to a line that was one of the worst in the league a season ago.
Defensive Line
The Best: HOU The Rest: TEN, IND, JAX
Hard to argue against a defensive line that boasts former Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt, but again, none of the units in this division are particularly impressive. New defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel will look to Notre Dame rookie tackle Louis Nix, a steal for the Texans in the 3rd round of the draft, to stuff the run and occupy blockers to free up Watt and a linebacking corps that includes first overall pick Jadeveon Clowney.
The Titans did a decent enough job stopping the run thanks to up-and-comer Jurrell Casey and hope to improve in that area with the acquisition of free agent Al Woods. The Colts and Jags both signed big name free agents to bolster their line play, with Indy nabbing Arthur Jones from Baltimore and Jacksonville signing both Red Bryant and Chris Clemons away from the Super Bowl Champion Seahawks.
Linebacker
The Best: IND The Rest: TEN, JAX, HOU
The Colts signed free agent tackling machine D’Qwell Jackson away from Cleveland, giving them another solid linebacker to pair with 2013 sack leader Robert Mathis, although Mathis will miss the first four games of 2014 due to suspension. Should Indy get more production from 2012 first rounder Bjoern Werner, they should have one of the more solid linebacking groups in the AFC.
Tennessee brought in Denver linebackers Shaun Phillips and Wesley Woodyard to help with their transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme. The Jags boast one of the division’s best young defenders in Paul Posluszny, but Geno Hayes is coming off of knee surgery and Dekoda Watson is still unproven. Houston lacks depth and has too many question marks, from Jadeveon Clowney’s hernia issues to Brian Cushing’s return from back-to-back season-ending knee injuries.
Cornerback
The Best: IND The Rest: HOU, TEN, JAX
Once again, none of these units are world beaters, but give a slight edge to the Colts and Vontae Davis. The closest thing to a shut down corner in the division, Davis will need to be at his best given Indy’s lack of depth at the position. And for $39 million, he’d better be at his best.
Houston is a close second with their solid tandem of Jonathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson, but like everyone else in the AFC South, they’re not very deep. Tennessee suffered a big loss when Alterraun Verner left for Tampa Bay while Jacksonville desperately needs an upgrade at the position.
Safety
The Best: TEN The Rest: IND, HOU, JAX
The Titans enter the 2014 season with two solid veterans at safety in Michael Griffin and Bernard Pollard. While he struggles in coverage from time to time, Pollard is a ferocious hitter who is a nice compliment to the more-polished Griffin. Tennessee hopes 4th round pick Marqueston Huff develops into a solid contributor.
Antoine Bethea signing with the 49ers was a big blow to Indianapolis, but LaRon Landry is arguably the best remaining safety in the division. Word out of Houston is that second year man DJ Swearinger is emerging as a leader, but the Texans will be forced to lean on castoffs Chris Clemons and Kendrick Lewis to round out the unit. Once again, the Jaguars bring up the rear with a dearth of talent at this position as well.
Special Teams
The Best: JAX The Rest: IND, TEN, HOU
Long live the Jags special teams! Jacksonville ranked in the league’s top 10 in both punt and kickoff coverage as well as kick returns. Punt returns? Dead last. But Josh Scobee and Bryan Anger are both solid in the kicking game and the Jags deserve to rank as the best at something.
Indy still has Adam Vinatieri in the kicking game and T.Y. Hilton has big play capability as a punt returner. Tennessee’s Leon Washington is one of the best in the business, but the loss of kicker Rob Bironas leaves a question mark in the field goal unit. Houston’s kick coverage was abysmal in 2013 and there are questions as to whether or not return specialist Keyshawn Martin will even make the team this season.
2014 Prediction
The Best: IND The Rest: HOU, TEN, JAX
The Colts should repeat as division champs fairly easily provided they stay healthy. Houston will bank on a smash mouth combination of defense and a running game and hope that Ryan Fitzpatrick is able to cut down on his turnovers, while Tennessee could become a nuisance if they get decent play from Jake Locker at the quarterback position. Jacksonville will continue to be Jacksonville, but a solid infusion of talent on the offensive side of the ball in this year’s draft gives Jags fans something to look forward to in 2015.
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