The NFL offseason can be a lonely, boring, barren place for many, with little to talk about and no excitement. And that has been the case this year, until yesterday. It began with Pro Football Talk releasing a report that the Browns had tried to trade for San Francisco 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh, and ended with this tweet by 49ers CEO Jed York (here’s a link to Deadspin’s summary of all that went down. Whether the rumours ever had any substance or not is yet to be seen, but they certainly raise some interesting questions.
Analysing the Jim Harbaugh-Browns Rumours and The Value Of a Head Coach
For me the biggest of these is ‘is it worth trading for a head coach?’. I was not following the sport the last time it happened, and I didn’t even know it was possible until yesterday. Although it seemed like a pointless idea at first, especially for a weak team like the Browns; the more I looked into it, the more sense it makes to me.
Although there have been no HC trades for eight years, it has happened multiple times in the past two decades. In 1997, the Jets sent a 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th round pick to the Patriots in exchange for the rights to Bill Parcels. Three years later, Bill Belichick went the other way for a first rounder. In 2002, the Oakland Raiders let Jon Gruden go to Tampa Bay, with two first and two second round picks going the other way. Finally, in 2006 Herm Edwards moved from the Jets to the Chiefs for a 4th round pick.
| Coach | 2 year win % before | 2 year win % after | Notes |
| Bill Parcels | .125 | .656 | Led team to win the AFC east for first time in team history and first visit to conference championship since 1982 in second season |
| Bill Belichick | .531 | .500 | Won Superbowl in second season. Got the Patriots to the final game in 5 of first 12 years |
| Jon Gruden | .594 | .594 | Led the team to the franchise’s first ever Superbowl in his first year |
| Herm Edwards | .594 | .406 | Only won more than four games in one of his three seasons in Kansas. Set a new franchise record for regular season losing streak |
| Jim Harbaugh | .438 | .750 | Led San Francisco to the Conference championship in all of his first three seasons |
Here is a chart showing the win percentage of all of the teams mentioned above in the two years prior to making the trade, the win percentage in the coach’s first two seasons, and notes about his tenure. As you can see, although win percentage didn’t always improve, three of the four coaches brought success to their new teams within the first two years.
Of these examples, the team in the most similar situation to the Browns before the trade were the Jets, who were turned around very quickly by Bill Parcels after only won four games in the past two years. For comparison purposes, I have included Jim Harbaugh and the effect he had on San Francisco at the bottom.
The idea of Harbaugh leaving the 49ers is not too ridiculous either. The disagreements between the coach and team (a theme seen in all but one of the four recent examples) have been widely reported, and this story isn’t likely to make things better. So all this leads to one final question- if the Browns could trade for Harbaugh, and it is feasible, if unlikely that it could have happened; what effect would him moving to Cleveland have had on the franchise?
Although the current roster is not in great shape, I think the former Stamford coach would have been able to turn things around sooner rather than later. Firstly, the importance and effect of a good coach, whether traded for or not, cannot be understated. Secondly, although there are a lot of holes to be filled in the Browns starting line-up, they do have some good players to build around, such as Joe Thomas, Joe Haden and Josh Gordon. And the fact that the Browns ran a base 3-4 defence in 2013, the same as Harbaugh has done all of his head coaching career, would make the transition that much more easier.
But the biggest reason for my optimism is the opportunities Harbaugh and whoever the general manager may be would have to mould the team from day one (the same reasons why I had the Browns as my no.3 post- black Monday vacancy). They would be able to tackle free agency with roughly $45 million in cap space, minus whatever it would cost to bring back Alex Mack and TJ Ward, and could therefore be in contention for some of the best players available, such as Alterraun Verner, Karlos Dansby and Eric Decker.
Harbaugh and co. would also be able to be aggressive in the draft, with an extra first, third and fourth round pick (although the number of picks traded away to San Francisco would have an effect on this). Overall, with his history of success, I believe coach Harbaugh could have turned around the franchise in the space of a few years, as well as offering us an entertaining, bi-yearly rivalry with brother John who’s at the Baltimore Ravens.
In summary, despite the debate over the reliability of the story (and the fact that it brings back into mainstream sports media the debate surrounding the use of unnamed sources), it makes more sense that it first may seem. For a franchise as desperate as the Browns, giving away valuable draft for a coach, even one with a growing track record, is risky even by their standards. But considering the problems they have had, I think it would have been a pretty smart move.
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