Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Black Monday Post Mortem – Analysing the Vacancies

Unless you have been living under a rock, you probably know that yesterday was Black Monday. As of writing this, six coaches have been fired (five of whom learned their fate on Monday) and rumours about who will replace them have already started. Although we probably won’t know who all the replacements are for a couple of weeks, we can start to look at what the new coaches will be inheriting, and what the future may hold.

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Detroit Lions

I, along with many, see this as the best vacancy in terms of talent already on the roster. Whoever replaces Jim Schwartz has a great QB, the league’s best WR, a strong O-line which this season gave up the second least sacks per game, and arguably the league’s best defensive front seven. With a good off-season, this team should be able to achieve its third positive season of the century next year. But that doesn’t mean that there are not problems.

Although this is a talented roster, the next Lions coach must not make the same mistakes Schwartz did while wasting the opportunity the team had to win the division this year. Although Calvin Johnson is incredible, no other receiver totalled over 500 yards this year. Although Deandre Levy and Stephen Tulloch have been excellent at LB, there is a major hole next to them.

Behind them, the secondary is still a mess, and Detroit’s pass defence must be improved. Finally, the team has had a serious issue with turnovers this season – they are one of only four teams who averaged more than two giveaways per game this year. Unfortunately for the future coach, the Lions are one of only two vacancies without a pick in the top 8, and are not in a great cap situation.

 

Houston Texans

As I mentioned in my previous article looking at the Houston Texans, the team is in no means in a bad shape. I see them as prime candidates to bounce back in a similar fashion to Kansas City this year if they get this off-season right. Their three biggest issues are with turnovers (on both sides of the ball), scoring/conceding points, and at QB.

Apart from holes at OLB, RT and kicker, the team is in a pretty good condition. Whoever is the QB next year will have an excellent supporting cast. They will be supported by two former first round receivers, a bookend LT and a 3-time pro bowl RB returning from injury.

Add to that the third best pass defence in the league and the unforgettable JJ Watt, and you have a team which is in pretty good shape considering it has lost its last 14 games. Whether it is favourite Bill O’Brien or someone else, the new Texans coach will have the chance to add his QB to a strong roster at the very beginning, and will have a good shot at a quick turnaround.

 

Cleveland Browns

At first glance, the Browns HC position may seem one to avoid. They have also just sacked their latest coach after just one year and have a lot of needs. These include upgrades at CB, WR, RB, QB and OL to name just a few. But although the team does not have the talent in place like the Lions and Texans do, the new coach has an excellent blank slate to start from.

Firstly, the team has already has some extremely talented players. Joe Haden, Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron and Joe Thomas are all fantastic s, and if Alex Mack and TJ Ward both return (and reports suggest they want to), the new coach will have a strong foundation. Another benefit is Cleveland’s cap situation. Although it is hard to know exactly how much the team will have to play with, overthecap.com suggests they could end up with over $45 million in cap space.

Although resigning Mack and Ward will eat up some of this money, they will likely still have enough money to go after some of the better players available. Finally, the Browns will be drafting early and often. They have three picks in the top 35, and have an extra selection in the 3rd and 4th round also. The Browns may be the definition of a rebuilding project, but the new coach will have the chance to make that changes he and the front office want early.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Although the first three vacancies I have talked about are quaint, the others are tougher to sell. This starts with the team down in Tampa Bay. Reports are already circulating that former Bears coach Lovie Smith is the favourite to replace Greg Schiano as the head coach. Whether it is him or someone else, the new coach and GM will have some tough decisions to make.

Firstly, they must address the worst passing offence in the league. Although Mike Glennon did not do badly in his first season, he definitely wasn’t Peyton Manning. In fact he ranks dead last for yards per attempt among QBs who have thrown at least 200 passes this season. In fairness to Glennon, his supporting cast was nothing to write home about. Apart from Vincent Jackson, no WR put up more than 450 yards. If the new front office decides that Glennon in the answer for now, improvements still need to be made at tackle, receiver and tight end. Fortunately, there will be no issues running the ball when Doug Martin returns.

On defence, things are somewhat better. The team has some top players such as DT Gerald McCoy, LB Lavonte David and CB Darrelle Revis. Although the team was only average for yards per game and points per game allowed, there were some promising signs – the Bucs ranks in the top six for takeaways per game. The biggest issue is the lack of opportunities to improve the team this year. Strength of schedule means they have the 7th selection in the first round, even though they finished the season 4-12. And although they are not in a bad cap situation, they don’t have as much money to spend as Cleveland and Washington do.

 

Washington FC

Now onto the aforementioned Washington football club. This year has been embarrassing for them, finishing with their worst record since 1994 and scoring on average nine points per game less than they were conceding. Fortunately, the offence is not too bad. The team ran the ball well, and ended the season with the fifth best yards per carry average. And although the team was not exceptional when passing the ball this year, the new coach has a fantastic QB to work with. By making upgrades on the offensive line and at wide receiver, and reducing the amount of turnovers, this offence can start giving DCs nightmares again quickly.

But a lot more work needs to be done on defence. They rank dead last in points per play allowed and yards per pass allowed. Almost every position needs upgrading. Finding an new star through the draft will be tough as the team doesn’t have a 1st round pick. On a more positive note, they pick high in every other round, and have a decent amount of cap space to work with in free agency.

 

Minnesota Vikings

Finally, we head up north to Minnesota. Like Washington, they have also experienced a drastic drop off from last season when they reached the playoffs and have a lot of work to do. Although there are some good players to build around (yes, I’m staring at you Adrian Peterson), there is a lot of work that needs doing so that they can compete in one of the league’s toughest divisions, 2013 being an aberration.

When AP is fit, the team has an incredible running game which dragged them into the playoffs last year and meant the team finished the season with the 2nd highest yards per rush average. But the same cannot be said for the dire passing game, and a new QB is a priority. Fortunately, the offensive line and receivers are good enough to give the next signal caller adequate support.

On the defence, things also need to be improved. Arguably the biggest priority is a replacement to Jared Allen. There are also real issues in the secondary, as the Vikings gave up the second most passing yards per game this season. Fortunately, the team has a high pick in every round and an extra selection in the third, as well as a respectable, but not large amount of cap space.

 

Thanks for reading. If you have any feedback on the article, or suggestions for future topics, Make sure you send me over a tweet @N_1_C_K_F. While you are at it, make sure you check out Last Word on Sports on Twitter and Facebook as well. And don’t forget to listen to the site’s two partnered podcasts- Thursday Night Tailgate Radio and Overtime Ireland.

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