It’s been awhile since the Iron Bowl was actually a meaningful game for both teams. Alabama is playing for an undefeated regular season and almost certainly a return to the BCS title game, while Auburn could play its way into the SEC Championship game with a win (both would be 11-1, Auburn would have the head-to-head victory).
When Alabama Has The Ball
If you haven’t seen an Alabama game this season, do yourself a favor and watch this one. The Tide work like a finely tuned machine. Quarterback A.J. McCarron has thrown for 2,399 yards and completed 68.6% of his passes, with 23 TDs and just five INTs. Ten different players on the Tide roster have at least one TD this season, and eight have at least a hundred yards. Kevin Norwood leads both categories with six TDs and 33 catches for 493 yards. On the ground, T.J. Yeldon has taken over for Eddie Lacy (now a Green Bay Packer), just as Lacy took over when Trent Richardson went to the NFL and Richardson took over for Mark Ingram. (I swear Nick Saban creates these guys in a lab or something). Yeldon has rushed for 1,022 yards and 12 TDs; number two back Kenyan Drake has 661 yards and eight TDs. The Tide offense isn’t flashy, but it’s effective. The same could be said of the offensive line, which does and excellent job of keeping McCarron upright.
As good as Auburn has been, this will be the toughest test they’ve faced all season, and it’s not even close. The Tigers rank just 69th in the country in total defense, and they’ve struggled against the pass when facing good quarterbacks like Aaron Murray and Zach Mettenberger. The secondary does have 11 INTs, but I’m not sure how helpful that is when McCarron has only thrown five all year. Keep an eye on DB Ryan Smith, who’s picked off both Johnny Football and Aaron Murray this season. The Tigers are somewhat better against the run- they held Georgia’s Todd Gurley under 100 yards- but again, they haven’t faced anyone who can take over a game quite like Yeldon. The closest would probably be LSU’s Jeremy Hill, and he torched them for 184 yards and THREE TDs. Auburn will absolutely have to win the turnover battle and come up with some points off of takeaways to be in the game late.
When Auburn Has The Ball
Quarterback Nick Marshall was just another guy in spring practice. By September, he was THE guy under center or in the shotgun for Gus Malzahn’s Tigers. Marshall isn’t the most polished passer (1,530 yards, nine TDs, five INTs), but when you’re 10-1 and you’ve rushed for 823 yards and nine TDs, you probably aren’t going to hear all that many complaints about your passing ability. Aside from Marshall, the guy to watch on the offense is Tre Mason. Mason has rushed for 1,153 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, and 17 TDs. Cameron Artis-Payne (568 yards, five TDs) and Corey Grant (557 yards, five TDs) have done a nice job spelling Mason when necessary. All three are a little under six feet and a little over 200 pounds, so there’s no true battering ram-type in the group, but all three have been effective. Sophomore wideout Sammie Coates has become Marshall’s favorite target through the air, but make no mistake- this is a ground-and-pound team. Coates has just 687 yards and five TDs, and he leads the receiving corps by a decent margin. The passing game has been much better of late, however, and particularly two weeks ago against Georgia.
Alabama’s defense ranks third in the country in total defense, fourth in run defense, and eighth in passing yards allowed. No one has been able to stymie the Tide yet this season; while Johnny Football and the Aggies managed to score 42 in a 49-42 loss, the next -highest point total at Alabama’s expense was LSU’s 17. Auburn has probably the best running game they’ve faced this season, and certainly has the most options on the ground, but the passing game is unproven. Unless Nick Marshall comes out throwing early, often, and accurately, expect the Tide’s game plan to revolve around extra men in the box to stop the run.
Prediction:
I’ll be shocked if this is a blowout of last year’s caliber. (Alabama, if you’ll recall, won 49-0). Auburn has done a masterful job turning the team around after a dismal 3-9 season last year. I don’t know anyone who saw a one- or two-loss season coming for the Tigers. I didn’t even think they’d make it to .500 until next year. So, like I said about Minnesota last week, what happens on the field tomorrow almost doesn’t matter: Auburn players and fans should feel very, very good about their season. That said, I don’t think the passing game or the defense are quite up to snuff with the Tide, although they’re certainly trending in the right direction. Alabama 42, Auburn 21.
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