Will there be a Kansas State-like surprise in the Big 12 this year?
Baylor
Junior quarterback Bryce Petty follows two 4,000 yard passers- in fact, the only two in Baylor history- in Nick Florence and Robert Griffin III. (No pressure, kid). Fortunately for Petty, the receiving corps is deep, albeit somewhat inexperienced, and Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin may be the best running back tandem in the Big 12, combining for nearly 2,000 yards last season. The left side of the line remains intact.
Last year’s defense improved dramatically over the course of the season, giving up over 800 yards to West Virginia in September but rebounding to upset Kansas State and win their bowl game over UCLA. Linebackers Bryce Hager, who led the conference in tackles with 124, and Eddie Lackey, who had 4 INTs, both return, joined by safety-turned-linebacker Sam Holl.
All of last year’s specialists return.
Prediction: Baylor should get off to an excellent start. They have two tough road games, at Oklahoma State and TCU, in late November, but the rest of their schedule isn’t terrible. 8-4.
Iowa State
Sophomore Sam Richardson has been named the staring quarterback, with red shirt freshman Grant Rohach the backup. The top three receivers on last year’s roster are gone, leaving junior Jarvis West and senior Albert Gary the only upperclassmen at the position. There’s plenty of depth in the backfield, and the line is comprised of all juniors and seniors, three of whom were starters in 2012.
The defense lost two All-Big 12 linebackers in Jake Knott and A.J. Klein. Knott’s brother Luke, a freshman, is in the mix at the position this year. Just four starters return from last year’s defense, all of them seniors. The secondary is the most experienced unit. Senior safety Jacques Washington had three interceptions last year.
Kicker Edwin Arceo returns, having kicked two fifty-plus-yard field goals last season. Kick returns need work. Prediction: 6-6
Kansas
Former top quarterback recruit Jake Heaps, a transfer from BYU, will run the offense this season. Despite their 1-11 record, Kansas actually had the third-best rushing attack in the Big 12 last season, and their top three backs return. Senior James Sims rushed for 1,013 yards and 9 TDs last season. Oklahoma transfer Justin McCay could see significant time at wide receiver. However, the Jayhawks will be replacing all but one offensive lineman.
Several juco players could see time on the defense, including Marquel Combs, a 6’3”, 210-lb. defensive tackle who was ranked by ESPN the nation’s top juco recruit last spring. End Chris Martin, who started his career at Florida, could figure in as well.
The kicking and punting games are in flux. Expect some juco transfers to get a good look there, too.
Prediction: It’s tough to have very high hopes for a team coming off a 1-11 season and returning just six starters. After opening against South Dakota, Rice (on the road), and Louisiana Tech, Kansas may not win another game. Even Louisiana Tech isn’t a gimme. 3-9.
Kansas State
Collin Klein’s successor has yet to be named at K-State, where sophomore Daniel Sams and juco transfer Jake Waters are battling. Sams looked good in garbage time last season, albeit primarily as a running quarterback, and Waters won a national junior college title. Whoever wins the job will have an entire offensive line returning in front of him, notably a 6’9” left tackle in Cornelius Lucas, and multiple weapons at running back and receiver.
The story is different on the other side of the ball, where just two starters return from last year’s unit. All-Big 12 linebacker Arthur Brown departed to the NFL, but star safety Ty Zimmerman returns. Zimmerman, now a senior, was named All-Big 12 his freshman, sophomore, and junior years. With so few returning starters, any or all of several juco transfers could see significant time.
Jack Cantele is likely to take over from his older brother Anthony, who graduated, at kicker.
Prediction: This is still a good team, but they’ve lost some excellent players, particularly on the defense. I’m going to be conservative and say 7-5, although one more win wouldn’t shock me.
Oklahoma
It was announced this week that Bob Stoops has chosen Trevor Knight to start at quarterback over Blake Bell. Bell has played in several games over the past two seasons, primarily in goal-line and short-yardage situations (hence his nickname, the Belldozer). Even with Knight starting, I see no reason why Stoops wouldn’t continue to give Bell the ball at times. Knight has experienced players at his disposal in receiver Jalen Saunders, running back Damien Williams, and fullback Trey Millard, all of whom played extensively last year. Four starting offensive linemen return for the Sooners as well.
On the defense, however, just four starters are back. A handful of sophomores could be starting. Corner Aaron Colvin is the only standout on the unit, having been named All-Big 12 last year and leading Oklahoma in passes defended with 11; Colvin also had four INTs. The rest of the defense is at least somewhat of a question mark.
Michael Hunnicutt returns to handle kicks. Juco transfer Jed Barnett is likely to be the punter.
Prediction: I don’t think the Sooners- or any other team- can overhaul their defense to this extent and not experience at least a slight dropoff. The offense, however, should be good enough to keep it slight. They had nine wins last year, I’m giving them eight this year. 8-4.
Oklahoma State
According to the Tulsa World, both senior Clint Chelf and sophomore J.W. Walsh will see time at quarterback in the opener. Chelf started last season as the third-string QB, moving up the depth chart due to injury. At running back, senior Jeremy Smith gets his chance to start. Smith has 25 career TDs. Three seniors and a junior will start at receiver for new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich.
Seven starters return to a defensive that is reportedly going to be more aggressive under new coordinator Glenn Spencer. There are returning upperclassmen at every position except end, and sophomores are slated to take over at least some of the openings.
The return units are in good shape, but the kicking and punting are a question mark. A true freshman may end up handling both.
Prediction: I think this team has a good chance to get to 10-0, although TCU will be a challenge. I expect the last two games on the schedule, Baylor and Oklahoma, to be their toughest. The good news for the Cowboys? All three of those games are in Stillwater. I think they’ll take two of the three, and sneak in a random loss somewhere else. 10-2
TCU
Head coach Gary Patterson has not announced a starting quarterback yet, and says he won’t before the opener with LSU. Casey Pachall, who missed most of last season dealing with a substance-abuse issue, and Trevone Boykin, who replaced him, are the candidates. Running back Waymon James and tight end Stephen Bryant return from injury. The receiver position is a bit of a question mark, with just one returning starter and no seniors. Both starters at the guard spots are new; the rest of the line returns.
Defense should be more of a sure thing for the Frogs. Last year’s defense was the best in the Big 12, and snagged an impressive 21 interceptions. Nine of those starters are back, including Big 12 Defensive Player Of The Year Devonte Fields, a sophomore defensive end who had 10 sacks in 2012. Fields’ status for the opener is unclear he was suspended for an alcohol-related issue, but Patterson has said he “might” play. The entire secondary returns.
TCU successfully used true freshmen at both kicker and punter in 2012. They have a number of speedy options on returns.
Prediction: TCU has three brutal games on their schedule- a neutral-site game against LSU to open, and road games with both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in October. The rest of the slate isn’t bad. 8-4.
Texas
Former Longhorns QB Major Applewhite takes over the offensive play calling. David Ash will start under center, coming off an inconsistent season in which he was benched multiple times. Top target Jaxon Shipley returns, along with Mike Davis, at the receiver position; Ash also has three strong running backs at his disposal, and the entire offensive line returns.
Last year’s defense gave up the most yards in Texas history. Linebacker Jordan Hicks and defensive end Jackson Jeffcoat return from injury and should help shore up the unit. There are questions at linebacker, where it looks as though a couple of returning starters may have lost their jobs to underclassmen. The secondary has three returning starters but will miss NFL draft pick Kenny Vaccaro.
Kicker Anthony Fera suffered from a nagging groin injury last season. According to Athlon Sports’ College Football, punting aggravates it less than kicking, so look for him to possibly make the switch.
Prediction: If David Ash can improve his consistency, this team can be very good. 10-2.
Texas Tech
Senior Michael Brewer is likely to start at quarterback, replacing Seth Doege. The receiving corps, outside of senior Eric Ward, lacks experience, so expect a heavy dose of the run game at least to start the season. Junior Kenny Williams rushed for 824 yards last year. The offensive line is an issue, with just two starters returning.
On defense, the Raiders have their fifth coordinator in five years, and are undergoing a scheme switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4. As usual, there may be some players changing positions as a result of the switch. However, this is a unit that ranked 38th nationally this year and is returning eight starters. Once the players are accustomed to the new base defense, expect it to be fairly stout.
The kicker, punter, and return men from 2012 are all back.
Prediction: Breaking in several new offensive players is never easy, especially when your defense is adjusting to a new system. I expect Tech to take a step backward this season, albeit a small one. 7-5.
West Virginia
Losing your quarterback and top two receivers to the NFL is rarely good news. The Mountaineers have a lot of people to replace from a unit that ranked 10th nationally in 2012. The quarterback battle between Florida State transfer Clint Trickett, red shirt freshman Ford Childress, and junior Paul Millard, is ongoing, although coach Dana Holgorsen says he does expect to announce a starter before the first game. Trickett is widely considered to be the front runner. Running back Andrew Buie will likely be a big part of the offense, at least initially, as could juco transfer Dreamius Smith. Another juco player, Kevin White, could see significant time at receiver, as could a handful of underclassmen. Both offensive guards need to be replaced as well.
The defense, on the other hand, ranked 108th in the country last season, and 118th in pass defense. (You could kind of see that coming after the Baylor game). So is it good news or bad news that seven starters are back? Defensive coordinator Keith Patterson switched to a 3-4 front between the end of the season and the Pinstripe Bowl last season (West Virginia lost to Syracuse, 38-14), so it’s tough to know what to expect. The secondary in particular will have to improve, or opponents will be throwing the deep ball left and right.
Replacing Tavon Austin, who returned both punts and kicks, will be difficult.
Prediction: The Mountaineers are starting a major rebuild. 5-7.
Conference Prediction:
- Texas
- Oklahoma State
- Oklahoma
- TCU
- Baylor
- Texas Tech
- Kansas State
- Iowa State
- West Virginia
- Kansas
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