Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Was Marco Verratti worth selling to Paris Saint-Germain?

Although losing the EURO 2012 final rather brutally to currently the world’s best nation in Spain, coach Cesare Prandelli’s Azzurri should be proud of their overall performance and accomplishment of second place. Many of the Italians contributed to the successful campaign in Ukraine and Poland. However, there is one individual in particular who has always caught the eye of professionals and spectators. The one who was awarded three ‘man of the match’ titles equalling that of Spanish magician Andres Iniesta and that is none other than midfield mastermind, Andrea Pirlo.

Pirlo, a deep-lying midfielder placed just in front of the defence, was the key to Italy’s run to the final in EURO 2012. His vision, movement, passing, and free kick-taking abilities are unmatched by any other Italian professional at the moment.

Mr. Prandelli will need to begin to observe some talented Italian youngsters who will be able to substitute, and some day replace, the 33-year old star.

At the moment, the Italians hope to have found a possible replacement in 19-year old sensation Marco Verratti. He was part of the provisional Azzurri squad made up of 30 men before Prandelli’s final cut. Verratti was owned by hometown club Pescara Calcio and guided his compatriots to their first Serie A promotion since 1993. Juventus FC, Verratti’s alleged childhood favourite team, had their eye on the boy since January and was expected to land the deal which accommodated Marco’s wishes allowing the youngster to remain with Pescara to gain Serie A experience and then transfer over to Turin the following year where he would become Pirlo’s understudy. That said, it is evident the Old Lady is already in search for a reliable substitute.

It was believed that SSC Napoli was also on his tracks. Club owner Aurelio De Laurentiis aimed to hijack any potential agreement made between the Bianconeri and Pescara.

However, Juve and Napoli were both left with their jaws dropped to the floor in surprise when the new owner of Paris Saint-Germain, Qatar Investment Authority, placed a €12 million offer on the table for a player who has not yet played in a top flight championship! Considered excessive by Italian clubs, Juve’s and Napoli’s administrators refused to enter in a bidding war they knew was a losing battle anyway. Mr. Daniele Sebastiani, Pescara patron, loved the sheiks’ offer and accepted. Verratti is now at the disposal of compatriot coach Carlo Ancelotti.

The sale of this so-called ‘next Pirlo’ beckons my mind. Why would you want to sell someone as good as Pirlo if it’s even true?

Looking back to Sunday’s PSG vs Chelsea FC friendly at Yankee Stadium, Verratti looked very impressive. He had great vision, passing, dribbling skills are fantastic as he was able to shrug off players and get out of tight places. He did not turn over the ball and he moved like Andrea as well. The one factor that is currently unknown is whether Verratti is able to take a free kick the magical way Pirlo can. Ancelotti was the one who launched Pirlo in this deep-lying role, and therefore will know when best to use the talented 19-year old who is expected to have a bright future.

The lad seems to be as good as everyone thought, hence why Juventus attempted to sign him back in the January transfer window. So why sell him? In my opinion, Pescara made a terrible decision to sign off on the playmaker as he will be needed in order to remain in Serie A, no doubt about it. In addition, considering all went well in his first year in the top flight, the club could have reaped the benefits of the sale even further by sticking a much higher price tag on him. I was originally in accordance with Italian clubs that paying €12 million for a player who has not played in a competitive match was absurd. But now, after seeing Verratti feature in last night’s game, I believe it was a good deal for PSG. I really hope Ancelotti puts his faith in him and allows this lad playing time which will certainly benefit the national team. Verratti’s talent is not to be wasted, but rather should be exploited and Carlo Ancelotti will be reaping the benefits soon, I’m sure.

I invite you to YouTube Marco Verratti and you will see what a great talent this boy is.

On a final note, it is time that Serie A clubs allow playing time to their talented youth players instead of pawning them off to another league for foreign players of the same age or who are a little more developed. Have some guts and develop the young talent you have into experienced international stars.

…that’s the last word.

Top Shelf Prospects: Boston Bruins

Yesterday I launched “Top Shelf Prospects” a look at the top prospects for all teams in the NHL.  Yesterday we started with the Anaheim Ducks.  Today I move on to the Boston Bruins.

Since we had an extensive NHL Draft preview, I will not be reviewing the players who were drafted in the 2012 draft, as there have been no games since the draft, and my reports on them will not have changed.

What I will be doing is linking you to those articles, as well as taking a look at prospects that were acquired before this year’s draft; their progress, and their chances of making the 2012-13 roster of the NHL team in question.   I will also bring you one sleeper pick.  A player who was either drafted in the 4th round or later, or was an undrafted free agent signing who I pick as my darkhorse to make the NHL.

2012 Draft Picks that were reviewed in our preview:
Malcolm Subban
,

Top Prospect: Dougie Hamilton, Defence
Born Jun 17 1993 — Toronto, ONT
Height 6.04 — Weight 195 — Shoots Right
Drafted 9th Overall in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft

Dougie Hamilton was taken with the second of the two first-rounders received by the Boston Bruins in the Phil Kessel trade.  He is a huge physical specimen at 6’4″ and 195 lbs. Hamilton has put up extremely impressive offensive stats, leading the OHL in scoring by a defenceman despite only playing 50 games last season due to missing time with a suspension, and playing for Team Canada at the World Junior tournament.

Hamilton is a gifted skater for his height and has good mobility, agility, and acceleration.  He is also a strong stickhandler who protects the puck well.  He combines these skills to help skate the puck out of danger in his own end and elude forecheckers.  He also is very adept at joining the rush and creating offense from the back end.  Hamilton has a hard and accurate slap shot and one-timer which he has used to great effect on the Niagara powerplay.  His vision and passing skills are also elite, and already NHL ready.  I expect to see him on the point of the Bruins power play beside Zdeno Chara in the near future.

Defensively Dougie Hamilton continues to improve.  He used to be the type of player that relied on his positioning and good instincts solely in the defensive zone.  While those are very good, and very useful in defending, Hamilton was criticized by many for lacking physicality despite his size.  This is no longer the case, as Hamilton upped his physical game last season.  While no one will confuse him with Scott Stevens, and he’s still not the biggest hitter around, Hamilton has shown the ability to lay the body and added an effective physical dimension to his game.  Hamilton’s game is now extremely well rounded and he truly can do it all.

Hamilton has nothing more to learn in the OHL.  He is dominant in that league, and I don’t believe another year in Niagara would help him to progress as a player.  The issue here is that as a June 1993 birthday he is also not eligible for the AHL next season.  He may not be ready for huge minutes, but I believe the Bruins will keep him in the NHL next year and ease him into their lineup as they did with Tyler Seguin.  Hamilton is the heir apparent on defence and the Bruins hope he will eventually grow to lead their defence core in the same way that Zdeno Chara has done for years.

 

Jared Knight, Right Wing
Born Jan 16 1992 — Battle Creek, MI
Height 5.11 — Weight 196 — Shoots Right
Drafted 32nd Overall in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft

Jared Knight was the 2nd round pick given to the Bruins by the Maple Leafs in the Phil Kessel trade.  Bruins fans should call Brian Burke and thank him, because that deal is the gift that just keeps on giving.

Knight was a PPG player for the London Knights last season, as he put up 26 goals and 26 assists in 52 games.  However his OHL playoff and Memorial Cup was disappointing as he only put up 8 points in 15 playoff games and 1 assist in 4 Mem Cup games.  Knight was however battling an upper-body injury that may have still been bothering him in the playoffs.

Knight is a tenacious worker and is at his best controlling the puck down low and working the cycle game.  He loves to beat his man and take the puck to the net, and is also not afraid to take the punishment in the dirty areas of the offensive zone.  He has a good shot and release, along with good hands in tight which help him to score a lot of goals at the OHL level.  The question remains given his size, if he can continue to play such a game at the NHL level and be successful.

Knight is likely headed to the AHL next season.  The Bruins have a deep group of forwards, and I think he still has aspects of his game that will need some work before he is NHL ready.  The question with Knight is whether or not he can continue to generate offense at the pro level.  Knight is likely to be an NHLer, but will he be on the third line, or the 2nd line in the future.

I would be remiss if I didn’t at least mention two other top prospects.  Many would consider Jordan Caron a top prospect for the Bruins.  However with 71 NHL games under his belt, and likely to start next season on the big club, I am considering him graduated to the NHL.

The Bruins number 2 prospect ahead of Knight, should be Windsor Centre, and 2011 2nd round draft pick Alexander Khoklachev.  He is a dynamic player with the talent to develop into a surefire top 6 forward in the NHL.  However, he has left the Spitfires and will be playing in the KHL next year.  As the Bruins must sign him by May 2013, or he will re-enter the draft, his status as a Bruins prospect is in doubt at this point.

Sleeper Special:
Matt Bartkowski, Defence
Born Jun 4 1988 — Pittsburgh, PA
Height 6.01 — Weight 203 — Shoots Left
Drafted 190th Overall by the Florida Panthers in the 2008 NHL Draft.  Traded to Boston at the Trade Deadline in 2010.

Bartkowski is a project defenceman.  His skating, mobility, and agility are already at an NHL level for the 23-year-old defender.  He has the puck-moving ability to be a bottom-pairing NHL defenceman and 2nd unit Power Play guy right now.  Bartkowski is able to rush the puck and to make clean crisp passes on breakouts, and in the offensive zone.

Unfortunately, Bartkowski’s defensive game has always held him back.  He is willing to throw the body but often gets himself caught out of position looking for the big hit.  He also sometimes has lapses in his positioning and defensive zone coverage.   If he can work on these issues, Bartkowski could be valuable depth as a 6th/7th defenceman for the Bruins, or another NHL team.

 

A look at the Bruins system makes one thing clear.  Their prospects should be called, “Dougie and the Other Guys”.  Hamilton is clearly the only elite talent in their system today, with most of their other prospects looking like depth guys.  However they have a strong NHL club and it is one where many of the young pieces have already been incorporated into the lineup in guys like Seguin, Kreijci, Rask, Lucic, Marchand as well as relatively young veterans like Bergeron, and Horton.  This is a team that should compete for the foreseeable future.

 

Feel free to leave your comments below, and follow me on Twitter @LastWordBKerr.

Yankees do it again, add Ichiro

The Seattle Mariners have traded Ichiro Suzuki to the New York Yankees.

As Max Warner argued here on May 13th, trading Ichiro is the right move for the Seattle Mariners and accelerates their rebuild.

It would appear the Mariners are receiving two minor league pitchers in the deal, along with cash.  The Pitchers are D.J. Mitchell and Danny Farquar.

Mitchell is a 25 year old starter who has pitched in 4 games for the Yankees.  Over the last three years in AAA, he has a combined 3.81 ERA

Farquhar was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays and was included in a trade to Oakland that brought Rajai Davis to Toronto.   He was then traded back to the Blue Jays for David Purcey, and then selected off waivers by Oakland from the Blue Jays.  The Yankees used the waiver wire to acquire him from the A’s.

Farquhar has pitched in 3 major league games for the Blue Jays in 2011.  He has a 4.65 ERA in two seasons in Triple A.

Last Word Baseball Analyst Max Warner checks in:  This move is more about financial flexibility for Seattle going forward than anything else.  Over two months ago, I wrote that Seattle needed to trade Ichiro immediately before his star power declined any further.  Unfortunately, Seattle waited too long to trade Ichiro, and his play continued to decline sharply as the 2012 season has gone on.  Ichiro is batting just .261, with a .641 OPS and only 15 stolen bases, and Seattle was not able to get much in return for one of the greatest Mariners of all time.  D.J. Mitchell is a right-handed starting pitcher who has pitched for the Yankees’ AAA affiliate for most of the past three seasons.  Mitchell’s upside is as a fifth starter or a long reliever.  Mitchell has averaged nearly 7 strikeouts per nine innings in over 250 innings of AAA pitching, but as his 1.35 WHIP in AAA indicates, he surrenders too many hits and walks.  At 25, Mitchell may have a year or two of development left, and pitching in Seattle’s Safeco Field will certainly help his stats a little, but he is far too hittable to be anything more than back-of-the-rotation filler in the Majors.  Aside from Felix Hernandez, the Mariners don’t have any decent starters, so Mitchell will be given every chance to make the Seattle rotation.

Danny Farquhar is a small (5’9”), 25 year old reliever who has pitched in the minors for three different organizations for almost his entire career.  His Triple-A stats are very mediocre: a career 4.65 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 7.6 K’s per nine innings.  Farquhar will be fighting to make Major League rosters for the rest of his career, and he offers little more than injury insurance for Seattle’s bullpen.

The Mariners also got an undisclosed amount of cash in the deal, and are off the hook for the balance owing on Ichiro’s $18 million salary this year.  These financial savings should help last place Seattle offset some of the lost revenue from decreased attendance and Ichiro memorabilia sales, which will almost certainly result from this trade.

Ichiro gives the Yankees a table-setter for the top of their lineup, who can bat second after Derek Jeter, which will allow Curtis Granderson to move down in the order to provide more protection for Mark Texeira and Robinson Cano.  Ichiro’s contact hitting and speed on the bases will allow him to score plenty of runs on hits by the big bats of the Pinstripes.  The small confines of Yankee Stadium should also help reduce the impact of Ichiro’s decreased range in the field; it remains to be seen if Nick Swisher will remain in right field or shift to left field to make room for Ichiro.  In return, Ichiro gets a chance to play for a World Series contender, and his star gets to shine on the biggest baseball stage in the world.

This is a very difficult day for Seattle fans, as the Mariners are 13 games under .500, have almost no hope of making the playoffs this year, and have lost one the best, most popular players in their history in exchange for two low-end minor league players.  Although the Mariners finally appear to be committed to a rebuild, the crowds at Safeco are going to be very, very small in August and September.

… And thats the last word.

Rick Nash Traded to Rangers, instant analysis.

We have learned through various sources (ie: Darren Dreger) that Rick Nash has been dealt to the New York Rangers.  The deal  includes NHL forwards Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, defence prospect Tim Erixon, and a first round pick.

The Rangers also get a conditional 3rd round pick (if the Rangers make the Cup final, the pick goes back to Columbus) and minor leaguer Steve Delisle in the deal.

From Last Word Analyst Ben Kerr: “Erixon is an excellent defensive prospect, one of the top defencemen not currently in the NHL.  He has excellent skating and is an extremely smart passer.  With Ryan Murray, Tim Erixon, James Wisniewski, and Jack Johnson, the Blue Jackets have set up an excellent quartet to run their Power play for years.

Anisimov and Dubinsky are second liners at best, and Dubinsky is really a salary dump from the Rangers side to make the cap work in this deal.  Anisimov has a ton of talent but questions remain if he can ever put it together

Still while Columbus is getting some nice pieces, the Rangers have kept their most prized young assets, in guys like Chris Krieder, Ryan McDonagh, Derek Stepan, and Michael Del Zotto and as such this trade has to be considered a major win from the Rangers perspective.  Quantity almost never equals quality in NHL deals, and Rick Nash is easily the best player in the trade.

The Rangers had long been the rumored front runners in the Rick Nash sweepstakes, with rumors headed as far back as the NHL Trade Deadline in February.  The sticking point at that time was the Rangers reluctance to include Chis Krieder in any deal.”

Last Word Hockey Analyst Paul Fazzari says: “Just a steal for the Rangers! They have lost alot of character up front this off season losing guys like Brandon Prust and Brandon Dubinsky, but I don’t think scoring goals will be a problem for them anymore next year.”

We pulled Last word Analyst Maksim Vasilyev away from the Bar long enough to get this:

“Rick Nash has averaged 32 goals per season his entire career and Dubinsky/Anisimov averaged 44 and 36 points respectfully over the last 3 years. Scott Howson’s hands were tied and a deal needed to be made, but you can’t help and feel like there is only one winner here. New York Ranger fans can rejoice because the team now owns two players who can score 40 goals. The dynamic of this team changes drastically.

I have always been an avid lobbyist for the Rangers to get Nash, I would have suspect a deal like this, but I figured two first round picks would have been a more fair deal here. Glen Sather is turning into a trade guru. Moving Gomez and now grabbing Nash. It is a good thing they are making Madison Square Garden brighter, because they have the stars now to shine.”

 

With Nash on the move, and the Shea Weber situation to be sorted out by Wednesday at the latest, many of the big summer moves have now been made.  NHL watchers continue to keep an eye on the Shane Doan, Alex Semin, Roberto Luongo, and Bobby Ryan situations.

 

… And thats the last word.

Penn State Fined, Loses Scholarships

The NCAA sanctions in the wake of the Penn State child sex scandal were handed down this morning. The school faces a $60 million fine, a four-year bowl ban, and the vacating of their wins from 1998 through 2011. In addition, they’ll be allowed 15 scholarships for incoming players each of the next four years, instead of the usual 25, and will have a total scholarship limit of 65.

The vacating of wins moves Joe Paterno from 1st to 12th on college football’s all-time wins list. Former Florida State coach Bobby Bowden moves back into first place among Division I-A coaches with 389, while Grambling’s Eddie Robinson leads all college football coaches.

The scholarship limits, and the fact that current players and commits will be allowed to transfer without penalty, will affect Penn State the most. It remains to be seen how many current players will leave, but recruiting is going to become a Herculean task for the school.

The school will also be put on probation for 5 years, and must work with an athletic-integrity monitor of the NCAA’s choosing.

 

The Big Ten will also be imposing sanctions on Penn State.

The conference has condemned and censured the program

They have banned the school from participating in the Big 10 Championship game in the same years that they face Bowl Bans from the NCAA.

They have also placed the program on 5 years of probation concurrent to the NCAA probation period.

Penn State’s proceeds from Big Ten bowl revenues from the four years, (estimated at $13 million) will be allocated “to established charitable organizations in Big Ten communities dedicated to the protection of children,” instead of being distributed to the school as would normally be the case.

 

Yesterday the university removed the Joe Paterno statue that has stood on campus for the last ten years, since he originally set the NCAA coaching wins record.

Top Shelf Prospects: Anaheim Ducks

Today we are happy and proud to bring you something new here at Last Word on Sports, as it is the official launch of my new blog “Top Shelf Prospects.”   For the rest of the summer I will be taking a daily look at the top 2 or 3 prospects for each NHL team.  Since we had an extensive NHL Draft preview, I will not be reviewing the players who were drafted in the 2012 draft, as there have been no games since the draft, and my reports on them will not have changed.  What I will be doing is linking you to those articles, as well as taking a look at prospects that were acquired before this year’s draft; their progress, and their chances of making the 2012-13 roster of the NHL team in question.  We will go team by team with the hope to look at the top 2 or 3 players per club.

So without Further ado, lets get started with the Anaheim Ducks.

2012 Draft Picks Featured in our Draft Preview:
Hampus Lindholm, Nicolas Kerdiles, Kevin Roy

 

Top Prospect: Kyle Palmieri, Right Wing

Born Feb 1 1991 — Smithtown, NY
Height 5.11 — Weight 193 — Shoots R;
Drafted 26th overall by Anaheim in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft

Kyle Palmeiri has proven to be an offensive force in the AHL.   His powerful wrist shot and good release are NHL ready.  The puck leaves his stick in a hurry, and with great velocity and accuracy.  This handcuffs goalies at the AHL level, and has turned Palmieri into a sniper at the pro level.  His one-timer is also a sight to behold, and lethal on the power play.  He also has excellent puck control, and good stickhandling ability. He protects the puck well, and is a good passer with decent vision.  He is effective working down low and cycling the puck with teammates to create scoring chances.

Palmieri is an excellent skater.  He has great top end speed and excellent acceleration.  He uses his edges extremely well, and is shifty and hard to contain.  He also has excellent agility and is strong on his skates, showing good balance.  Palmieri uses this speed in two ways.  Firstly, he is extremely dangerous in transition and scores many points off the rush.  Secondly despite his limited size, Palmieri is a weapon on the boards.  He is missle like in his ability to get in quick on the forecheck and hammer a defenceman going back to retrieve the puck.  He also wins a ton of puck battles, and plays much bigger than his stats for heigh and weight would have you believe.

Palmieri is knocking on the door of the NHL and threatening to break the thing down.  With 33 goals and 58 points in just 51 AHL games last season for the Syracuse Crunch, he is extremely close to being NHL ready.  As a future top 6 Right Wing, the only difficulty Palmieri faces at this point, is the fact that he is behind 2011 Hart Trophy and Rocket Richard Trophy winner Corey Perry, and NHL legend Teemu Selanne, at RW on the Ducks depth chart.  However Palmieri has the grit and tenacity to fit in on an NHL third line, and I think that if he has a good training camp, he should start in that spot, and be groomed by the Ducks to be Selanne’s eventual replacement in the top 6.

 

Emerson Etem, RW/C,
Born Jun 16 1992 — Long Beach, CA
Height 6.00 — Weight 194 — Shoots Right
Drafted 29th Overall by Anaheim in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft

Emerson Etem absolutely destroyed the WHL this past season, scoring 61 goals in just 65 games.  Etem is an absolute speedster, who blows by opponents and has NHL level skating ability right now.  His sharp, quick cuts and outstanding acceleration make him near impossible to contain off the rush. Etem uses this speed to create quick transition offence, and his quick feet and great anticipation make for excellent defensive play as well.  Etem has been one of the best Penalty Killers in the WHL over the last two seasons, and is always a threat to score short handed.

His shot is greatly improved from when he was drafted.  It is not quite as good as Palmieri’s right now, but is still hard and accurate.  He has a good, but not great release at this point.  However given the improvements he has made so far, it would not be a shock to see it continue to get better.  Etem is a good but not great stickhandler.  He doesn’t use a lot of fancy moves to create offense and has been dominating WHL defenders on pure speed.  He’ll need to add a little more finesse to his arsenal at the AHL level before he’s ready to make it to the show.

A California boy, Etem will be a marketting dream for the Anaheim Ducks.  He is definitely progressing and looking like he may be able to become a future top line forward at the NHL level.  However coming out of the WHL, with  no pro experience, Etem is still in need of further development at the AHL level before he’s ready to join the Ducks.  Expect to see him start the season in Norfolk, with Anaheim keeping a very close eye on his progression.

The Ducks future at forward is bright with these two young men, along with Peter Holland, Devante Smith-Pelley, and Rickard Rackell in the system.  With two young stud defencemen at the NHL level in Cam Fowler, and Luca Sbisa, along with top Draft Pick Hampus Lindholm, they are also well stocked on the blue line.  John Gibson gives the team a future goaltending prospect in the system.  The future is bright in Anaheim, and after a disappointing year in 2011-12, it won’t be long before the Ducks fly again.

Edit: Special Sleeper Prospect
Ed Lopaz from hockey inside/out suggested the following additon to my prospect reports, and I’ve decided it was a good idea and to oblige him for this request.  A special sleeper prospect, one player taken in the 4th round or later, or an unsigned free agent prospect who I like.

Max Friberg, Left Wing
Born Nov 20 1992
Height 5.10 — Weight 194 — Shoots R
Selected in the fifth round, 143rd overall in the 2011 Entry Draft

Max Friberg led team Sweden with 9 goals at the 2012 World Junior Championships and helped the team win the Gold Medal. An effective and gritty two way winger, Friberg battles on the boards and backchecks hard. He is absolutely tenacious in all zones and always right in the middle of the action. He has very good skating ability and excellent offensive instincts, including a very accurate shot and quick release. He has outstanding hockey sense, and is able to find openings in the defence to set up his shot.  Look for Friberg as a winger who could exceed expectations going forward.+

Overall, with Kyle Palmieri, Emerson Etem, Peter Holland, Devante Smith-Pelly, Rickard Rakell, Max Friberg, Nick Kerdiles, and Kevin Roy the Ducks feature a very deep forward group amongst their prospects. Hampus Lindholm was a very good pick and and is a solid defence prospect who helps to fill that need. Sami Vatanen is undersized but has lit up the Finnish League in recent years, he should help fill that void, but overall more defencemen are needed. The need for young defencemen is mitigated somewhat with Cam Fowler and Luca Sbisa already in the NHL, but the team lacks physical defensive dmen. John Gibson provides a quality goaltending prospect. The Ducks are definitely a very deep system, but they do lack an elite talent.

Feel free to leave your comments below and follow me on twitter @LastWordBKerr.

NHL Happy Hour: Summer Cocktail Predictions

Sometimes life hands you lemons and sometimes life hands you a Mao Hound  – vodka, mint, grapefruit, soda and ginger mixed together for a headache-reducing specialty drink. A really fancy treat, but am I turning soft with these drinks? Some purest might yell at me for once again tainting high quality vodka with mixed juices, well, it tastes good and don’t judge me, okay? I respect vodka, trust me, because you really ought to respect vodka; if you do not you will have a bad time.

Today is another day where I get to visit a peaceful bar and write something about hockey, and since it has been a little dry in the news department, lets take a look ahead to our ‘maybe happening’, ‘maybe not happening’, 2012-2013 NHL season.

Today’s topic of my Happy Hour is my pick of NHL teams that I think will make the jump into the playoffs next season. I know it might be early still to write about next year’s playoffs, but the news is slow and my drink is cold, so why not get to some predictions.

And, in the eventuality that you come back to me a year from now and say “Hey, you were totally right… this drink is really good, but too bad you were wrong about those teams”, my prompt and well-timed retort will be “I was drunk, so eat me”.  Stay classy, San Diego.

Every year we see many disappointed fans during the playoffs due to their team not making them.  And every off-season those same fans are filled with renewed hope as various transactions fill their minds with the possibility of enjoying playoffs again, and all the bragging rights within.  The 2013 playoffs will feature a couple of new teams, in my humble opinion, which include the Carolina Hurricanes, Dallas Stars and Buffalo Sabers.

My favorite part about drinking the creative drinks that my bartender makes is the looks from the manly men at the bar; the old guys. You know, the guys with the permanent whiskey face and the sweat-stained shirts. The ones that have a permanent bar seat spine arch and who drink cheap beer with cheap whiskey. If your bar don’t got’em, it ain’t a good bar – sorry, comrades. They do not appreciate the vibrant color of my sexy alcoholic beverage and do not care for the flavors of ginger and lime. I am guessing I will get a similar reaction from the fans of the teams I see not making the playoffs, but as I always try to make peace, I offer a drink. Everyone loves free drinks.  Umm, spot me, will you?

So now that I am in good graces with you, I can proceed.

The Carolina Hurricanes will make the playoffs and there is a very simple reason why: the Staal brothers.  Oh yeah, also Jeff Skinner (who may or may not be 12 years old still). I am a strong believer of a team needing depth down the middle to win and now this team has three top-tier centers. One of them will most likely play wing, but nevertheless. Last year’s power play will without a doubt improve with addition of Jordan Staal, and look to Jamie McBain to improve as pivot  at the point for them. This will help an already fairly-talented squad of guys to bring the powerplay parentage up to near twenty percent. Joni Pitkanen and Joe Corvo can both put up offense from the back-end as well. A good healthy and productive season from Jussi Jokinen and Tuomo Ruutu, who both have 30-goal potential, and Carolina is looking very much improved indeed. Skinner did not seem to have any sort of sophomore slump and should continue to grow offensively. A good idea is also to win more games vs the Atlantic division, as 16 loses came from that group with only 3 wins – ouch!  This team only has 21 players signed and needs to spend about $4 million more to reach the cap floor. There are rumors of Jim Rutherford (who has lots of green to spend – I mean cash, not the other “green” as far as I know) is trying to sweet talk Alexander Semin into a one or two-year deal and I am sure he would not mind picking up Doan to lead this young squad. Make it rain, Ruther…Make it rain.

The Southeast division to me is not the strongest to begin with; think of this division as a virgin margarita while the Atlantic could be a long island iced tea. I can see Florida ending up in last this year, and Jets goaltending is not as good, so bummer there, too. Carolina and the Capitals are looking like the winners for me here, although, depending on the goaltending, Tampa Bay might make some noise as well.

I think my drink is perfect for that Southeast division, indeed. I should be somewhere in Florida drinking this orange goodness. Instead of beaches, all I get is the concrete jungle with its constant NYC heat wave and not-so-refreshing cars’ exhaust.  To me a bar with air conditioning is an oasis for the body and the mind, except this one is substituting AC with 3 or 4 fans that make about as much noise as the Maple Leafs in the playoffs. The pleasant scent of my drink, which hits my nose as I drink it, briefly, cancels out the slight smell of tightly squeezed sweaty human beings – you remember those old guys? The fans are struggling to compete with the humidity and general “New Yorkness” of the folks. More sips.

The Dallas Stars went on a shopping spree and I thank them for it. In this dry off-season (dry season?) we have not had too much to write about and I sorta like this team. The moves Joe Nieuwendyk has made do not come free from criticism. I am sure the fans are split on his decision to ship out Steve Ott (a fan favorite, right?) and Mike Ribeiro. To replace the creative playmaker and the angry human being, I am sure you know which one is which,  he signed a couple of old guys. Jaromir Jagr and Ray Whitney – who both are spitting in Father Times’ face, and combined for 131 points last season. Whitney would have been the highest scorer on the young Dallas team and 40 is the new 20, right?. Was that enough? Nope and nope. He also decided to add a talented center, whose time in Buffalo was over and done with, Derek Roy. I think this deeply improved the offensive punch this Dallas team sorely needed. With Benn (He is humongous good) and Roy down the middle and Loui, Jagr, Ryder, and Whitney on the wing you have some potent offense. The powerplay should improve as both Jagr and Whitney made a living last year on the powerplay. A healthy Galigosky should get back to his 40-45 point pace, if he can play more than 70 games.  I look for them to crack the top eight and squeeze out Phoenix and maybe even San Jose.

Oh, and yes… I think the Minnesota Wild will not make the playoffs. Sorry, Wild fans, you can egg Parise’s and Suter’s house during playoffs instead.

Buffalo Sabres are my last dark horse. You know they missed last year’s playoffs by 3 points; if only they could have played two fewer games vs Lucic and company. The bright spot is that they beat the LA Kings, but the bad news is that it was in October of last year. So what is new with this squad? The Sabres have a respectable payroll that they will be rolling out this year, even after they shipped out Derek Roy and Brad Boyes (23 points, good riddance?). What Buffalo was missing was some toughness, but boy did they fix that. With Steve Ott, John Scott, and Cody McCormick they got plenty of muscle to make sure no one messes with their team again… forever and ever.  The main reason I have the Sabres cracking the top-eight is that Ville Leino and Tyler Ennis were huge disappointments for them (Ennis only played 48 games and Leino only had 25 points) and they still barely missed the playoffs. With these two guys having even a 20% improvement, and with Steve Ott being a greatly superior player than Brad Boyes, I see this team making the playoffs – bet on it!  Their defense coupled with Miller in net is as solid as you get in the East, assuming Weber stays in the West of course. This is why I did not expect for Buffalo to miss the playoffs last year at all.  But hey, Buffalo was a bit inconsistent and it was mostly due to terrible secondary scoring, as Vanek and Pominville tore it up. Look for the other team in New York to have a more consistent season and a healthy Tyler Ennis to break 60 points (fantasy pro tip for free).

Unfortunately these drinks do not last forever, which is borderline criminal. I hope everyone who reads this goes out and enjoys a nice summery drink during their next happy hour because it feels nice to order one, trust me (As Marshal pointed out in How I Met Your Mother Season 2 Episode 10, “Single Stamina”). Do not feel embarrassed as your co-workers say silly things and be forced into drinking another boring beer as these summer days do not last forever.  Enjoy these hot, hot days with cool, refreshing and tasty drinks while you still can.  And to my friends in Canada, who may still be shoveling snow from their driveways (or so the stereotype goes – hey, I hear it about Russia all the time) there’s no shame in adding some Irish Cream to a warm mug of coffee on a cold day.

The hockey season will start soon, and it will start god-dammit, Gary…by god it will! Keep your cup half-full, Buffalo, Carolina, and Dallas fans.

Bottoms up, comrades.

If you missed last week’s Happy Hour, find it here: “NHL Happy Hour: How the NHL can be Compared to Vodka”

You can always ask for the free drink and follow me on Twitter @maximus91

Miami Dolphins: Tough Off-season Leads to Low Expectations

Unlike the wild NFC South which we looked at last week (New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and  Tampa Bay Bucs), the AFC East has been a division with defined roles.  Recent history shows us the New England Patriots win the division, the Jets run their mouths and usually show up to play, the Bills get their fans hopes up in unique ways each year before crash landing and usually finishing in last place and the Dolphins of late try hard to grind out wins through the season, just trying to finish .500.  So in the interest of drama let’s run down the AFC East teams in reverse order to see if anyone can unseat the Patriots in 2012.

Miami Dolphins

In the second half of 2011 the Miami Dolphins turned around their season after a brutal 0-7 start and posted a 6-3 mark over the final nine games.  The strong finish left them with the unenviable record of 6-10, narrowly missing the 7-9 mark they had posted in the previous two seasons.  Following the season head coach Tony Sparano was dispatched with the Dolphins citing that they required new leadership to turn the franchise around.

Changing leadership personnel is often a valid reason, I am not sure it was the leadership at the head coaching position that was the problem.  The Dolphins played like a team in a playoff hunt down the stretch in 2011 refusing to quit on what was surely a lost season.

During the season, injuries forced career back-up quarterback Matt Moore into the lineup.  He performed decently tossing 16 TD’s versus 9 INT’s and leading the Dolphins to a 6-6 record.  Although he was “forced” into the line-up, the man he replaced, Chad Henne, is hardly a more distinguished quarterback than Moore.  Henne proved this while guiding the Dolphins to back-to-back 7-9 seasons in 2009 and 2010, starting a total of 27 games and never completing over 62% of his passes or throwing more TD’s than INT’s.  Henne also had the benefit of a serviceable run game to aide him, while Moore had to make due with a run offense that fell all the way down to 29th in the league last season.

The run game, which ranked in the top-10 in 2009,  fell off off so dramatically because Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams had moved on and were never adequately replaced.  The Dolphins acquired Reggie Bush during the offseason and forced this part-time back into the starting role. Bush for his part was not terrible and posted numerous 100 yard performances, but 2nd round draft pick Daniel Thomas, who split carries with Bush, was downright awful.  Miami went into the season knowing they had to be a run-based offense as a result of their quarterbacking situation, yet brought two inadequate backs to the table without other options.

Somehow I don’t blame this on the head coach.  In fact some feel Sparano should be given credit for the production he did get out of Bush, who many felt would flop as a feature back.

The woes at the quarterback and running back positions highlight the struggles the Dolphins have experienced in the last few seasons.  They are trying to compete against the likes of the New England Patriots and the New York Jets without a full deck of cards.  Instead of firing Sparano for failing to reach the playoffs in the last three seasons I think he should be commended for racking up 20 wins with the Chad Henne / Matt Moore duet and a dwindling cast of stars behind them.

When Sparano was hired as the Miami Dolphins head coach he came as part of a package deal with general manager Jeff Ireland, both from the Dallas Cowboys, and both hired by then VP of football operations, Bill Parcells. Parcells had much influence in that first season but appeared to lessen his role in the GM department as his tenure wore on.  That first season is when the Dolphins achieved all of their success under GM Jeff Ireland.  The Dolphins nailed their top pick in the draft with tackle Jake Long and made a series of key signings to bolster a roster that had a single win the season before.  With the season underway Sparano broke out the infamous wildcat to change the course of numerous games throughout the year, and the Dolphins found themselves in the playoffs.  Since that early success the draft picks have been spotty and the impact free agent signings rare.

That last point is something that was hit home by Steelers safety Ryan Clark during the offseason when he tweeted that no  one wants to sign with the Dolphins.  When you consider the evidence, while grossly unprofessional, this statement may not be very far off.

When the Dolphins threw their hat into the Peyton Manning sweepstakes they failed to even secure a visit from Manning, who surely spotted from far away this was a franchise he did not want to be associated with.  Still needing a QB they pursued Matt Flynn of the Green Bay Packers to unite with new head coach Joe Philbin, also of the Green Bay Packers.  Flynn instead chose Seattle and Miami was left hanging.

Their solution for the signal caller position was to retain Matt Moore and add competition through the signing of David Garrard who sat out all of 2011 recovering from injuries (they followed this up by drafting Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill but few believe he will start from day one).  Beyond Garrard the Dolphins were only able to sign a handful of other unhearalded free agents who likely struggled to find employment elsewhere.

It has not just been free agents who have avoided Miami either.  Jeff Fisher appeared to be the Dolphins top choice to replace Sparano this offseason but he instead choose to coach the inept St. Louis Rams, which should send a message to the Dolphins.  If you remember as far back as last offseason, owner Stephen Ross was pursuing head coaching candidates while Sparano was still under contract, but was unable to convince anyone to join his organization.

The news of this pursuit, which was widely reported, left many with the feeling Sparano was a dead man walking in his current position and has contributed to the reputation the Dolphins have been gaining as a business one does not want to work for.

There appear to be more problems than just at the head coaching level in Miami – their roster is depleted, and is without any true stars.  Their one true impact player on offense, receiver Brandon Marshall, was traded away this offseason for a pair of 3rd round picks.  Marshall has been involved in several off-field news bulletins in his career, including an incident at the time of the trade this offseason which may have been why Miami felt inclined to rid their organization of him.  This is a defensible position, until you factor in the recent signing of Chad Ochocinco, who brings similar baggage with him but with less than half the production.

With the change at the receiver position, Miami players will now be looking for a new leader.  Eighth overall pick, Ryan Tannehill, appears to be the Dolphins one true hope for success this season.  However, Tannehill was the 3rd QB chosen in the draft and only had one full season at QB in college; both of these facts cast his chances for early success in a negative light.

All of this paints an ugly picture for new head coach Joe Philbin, and there is no way I can really twist it around to look any brighter.  Even Philbin himself comes with some questions marks.  He has never before been a head coach at any level and he has spent his entire NFL coaching career with the Green Bay Packers.  He has been the offensive coordinator for the Packers for the last four years, which means he was privileged enough to work with Aaron Rodgers.  This is the real reason he was hired as the Dolphins head coach; he got to work with the best QB in the league.  I hope the Dolphins took a hard look at their recent past before making this hire.  Cam Cameron was previously hired as their head coach for the 2007 season. He had been offensive coordinator for one of the hottest offenses in the NFL once upon a time, and had also gotten to work with one of the brightest young QB stars in the NFL, Phillip Rivers. Cameron did have previous head coaching work, but was short on experience at the NFL level.  He ended up lasting one season with the Fins.

I don’t want to blast Philbin, he may well be the best hire for the team, but the coach can only make so much of a difference.  When Jim Harbaugh took over San Francisco last season he inherited a deep roster that was improperly utilized by their former head coach along with a solid draft of youth in the mix.

When training camp opens for coach Philbin he will realize he has inherited a roster full of holes with talent in certain areas but lacking any true stars at the key positions.  He also may realize that the former head coach got everything he could have out of this group of players.  If he can get the Dolphins to a 6-10 record in 2012, it would be something he can be proud of.

Are the Red Wings Still the Gold Standard in the NHL?

While I usually see the cup half-empty, I am faced with quite the conundrum when I consider the Red Wings’ situation.  As a long time fan of the Motor City team, I have enjoyed many “fat” years, with the prospects of “lean” years so far removed I barely remember the Pre-Fedorov Era.  I have bragged, boasted and jawed my way through countless hockey debates, citing games won, Stanley Cups, and all star after all star.  And just for good measure, usually as a final parting shot, I remind people of how the Wings’ scouting department and upper level management is so far beyond any other NHL team.  The problem is that I am not sure I believe that anymore.

Are the Red Wings, and specifically Kenny Holland, still heads and tails above all others?

It is unquestionable the Red Wings have been the most successful organization in hockey for the better part of two decades, if we base that on wins and Stanley Cups.  There have been a few important catalysts for their successs; an unrivaled scouting department, and excellent leadership.

With solid leadership beginning with owner Mike Ilitch and the respected management of Kenny Holland, Detroit has not had much to worry about from an administrative POV for decades.  Even their coaching, with Scotty Bowman for a great run in the 90’s, to Mike Babcock for much of the last 10 years, has been of exceptional quality.  But for the first time, cracks are appearing in the red and white’s armour, and critics, who have been waiting eagerly to write them off, are ready to swarm.

The issue fans are dealing with in Detroit this off-season is one they haven’t had to consider in a while – who is their on-ice leader?  The team has enjoyed the presence of two of the greatest captains in the history of the game in both Steve Yzerman (you have to consider Stevie Y amongst the top few) and Nicklas Lidstrom, who both had a similar approach to leadership.  It’s interesting to consider that both were very well disciplined, soft-spoken and mild-mannered, yet very fierce competitors.

The two most likely candidates are their offensive leaders, Henrik Zetterberg, who will be Detroit’s captain this season, and Pavel Datsyuk.  I love watching both play.  I think Datsyuk is arguably the game’s greatest two-way player, and Zetterberg plays with a great combination of grit and skill.  But those skills are not the only ingredients that go into making a good leader.  Do they have command of the locker room?  Do they  rise in the face of adversity, lead by example and win at all costs?  This is what I fear – I knew Yzerman and Lidstrom did all that and more, but I am not 100% certain Pavel and Hank will.  It’s not because I don’t think they can, it’s just that they have never been in the position to have to.

So with question marks surrounding on-ice leadership, what about the team’s management?  With hockey being a much more global game than it was, say, 10 years ago, does Kenny Holland and co. have any advantage over other teams?  Are the years of drafting players like Zetterberg and Fedorov (believe me, there are many, many more examples) in very late rounds of the draft over?

Even though Kenny Holland is considered an elite GM, I wonder if most of that is residual from the Stanley Cup years.  Instinct tells me that it is.  The Red Wings have long-been considered an “old” team – I’ve been hearing that for many, many years.  But until I saw them last year versus Nashville, I never really saw that as relevant.  Times have changed.  So what has Holland done to re-group?

During the 90s and early 2000s the Red Wings were able to exploit the fact that they scouted Europe more than any other team in the NHL.  They were able to find late round steals like Lidstrom, Fedorov, Konstantinov, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and others who other NHL teams passed over.  However other teams have caught up, and the Wings are no longer alone in spending significant scouting resources in Europe.  They must find another way to continue to replenish the talent pipeline.

The Wings have lost Nicklas Lidstrom and Brad Stuart on their defense this off-season.  This comes on the heels of losing Brian Rafalski last year.  These are pieces that have not been replaced (and really could they even hope to replace Lidstrom?).  Sure, Ian White was a nice add last year, and Niklas Kronwall and Jonathan Ericsson are solid players, however the loss on defence is enormous.  The Wings reportedly made offers to UFA Ryan Suter, and were trying to trade for Shea Weber, however they struck out on both those fronts.  Brendan Smith is a promising young prospect, but he’s spent several years growing in the Detroit system, but I’m also not convinced he’ll be a number-1 defenceman either.  A good prospect, but I don’t know that we can call him a great one with any level of assuredness.

So where does that leave the Wings?  The UFA Defence market is picked-over and there is not much left there.  Scott Hannan, Michael Rozsival and Pavel Kubina are not the answers to the holes on the Wings blue line.  There are some other young RFA defencemen available, but will Montreal give up Subban? or the Rangers, Del Zotto?  Can Washington afford to deal Carlson?  I highly doubt that they can lure these players away even with an offer sheet.

If the Wings want to remain an elite NHL team next season it’s time for Holland to pull some trade magic.  Could he lure Keith Yandle out of Phoenix or  Jay Bouwmeester out of Calgary?  Or perhaps some surprise player who is not rumorred to be on the market?  As a Wings fan, I sure hope so… but as I said, my cup is half-empty.

Feel free to leave your comments below and follow me on twitter @LastWordonNHL.