Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

A Pint of NFL: Andrew Luck Rides in on a White Horse

I went with my wife to a 40th anniversary that was being held for her parents at a local German restaurant late last week.  Before being seated I had to use the men’s room (it’s part of the story – stay with me).  Much to my surprise, when I returned to my seat my darling wife, without prompting, had already ordered me a beer.  Now that, my friends, is love.  But would she really know what to order?  Had she considered the schnitzel that I came for, or the double order of fried home potatoes that awaited my palate?

My weisse (wheat) bier arrived in a tall, frosted glass, not unlike the tall frosted horse Andrew Luck rode into Indianapolis.  With about a one-inch foam head, and slightly pale amber colour, my mouth was watering at the prospect of the first gulp – usually my favourite. It was spectacular.  And what made it better was that it was the perfect complement to the German feast on my plate.

Hacker-Pschorr Hefe Weisse, while quite an elaborate name for most who are unfamiliar with it, is certainly a tried and true weisse bier from Deutschland.  The clear shot of orange zest and cloves is like a punch in the face – very refreshing.  And what’s more is the slightly sweet banana-like finish.  Delicious beer.  I’ve had several hefe’s lately, but this, so far, is the best. The manner in which my beer arrived was unexpected in that I didn’t order it specifically.  Andrew Luck on the other hand, was anything but unexpected.

Fans have been waiting for the former Stanford quarterback to make his way into the NFL for an eternity.  There was much speculation leading to the 2011 NFL Draft concerning whether he would try his Luck (horrible, horrible pun) with big-league football.  When he opted for a victory lap at Stanford, the “Luck watch” was on.  Which team was crappy enough to warrant this blue chip pivot.  The Colts, as you know, turned out to be the crappiest of the crappy, proving that one player does not a good team make.  It came as little surprise to anyone with any semblance of football IQ that the Colts took him with the first overall pick.  RGIII is good, great in fact, but he’s not Peyton reincarnated.  Andrew is.  When life hands you lemons (a horrendous 2011 record), you make lemonade (an improved 2012 record).  Or, apparently you can also make Hacker-Pschorr as I noted a hint of lemon peel in the finish.

In fact, Luck was so Peyton-like in his debut last week that he went out and threw a 63-yard pass for a touchdown on his first drive (relax, I know he had help).  He was 10 of 16, with two of those 6 incompletions being throw-aways, and three being dropped balls.  Oh, and how about a rating of 146?  I get it, it’s preseason, but so what?  These were still his first NFL game situations.  He still had to read the defence.  He still had to the throw the ball with reasonable accuracy.  He still had to abandon the pocket when it closed.  Okay, let’s not read into things too much, afterall, we have a long season ahead of us.  Let’s just say Andrew Luck, so far, has lived up to the hype and call it a day, okay?

So just as I anxiously, painfully awaited my Hacker-Pschorr, so too have Colts fans waited for Andrew Luck.  Last week he rode his steed, leading the Colts (see the whole “horse” theme I’m going with?  Brilliant, no?) into battle against the Rams.  Much like my first incredibly satisfying gulp of weisse bier at this German tavern, my last gulp was equal to the task.  And just as my last gulp was equal to the task, so was Andrew Luck.

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You can find other Pint of NFL articles here.
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No Love Lost: Why Boston Needs to Fire Valentine

In December 2011, when the Boston Red Sox hired the replacement for the manager that had guided them to their first two World Series Championships in 86 years, Terry Francona, they chose a man who had not managed in the Show for ten years.  After 117 games this year, the Red Sox are beginning to learn why nobody in Major League Baseball was willing to hire Bobby Valentine in the last decade.

Valentine’s first big impact was to publicly question the dedication of popular slugger Kevin Youkilis earlier this season, spawning a very public conflict between the two.  As a result, Youk was benched in favour of rookie Will Middlebrooks, and it was no coincidence that Youkilis was later railroaded out of town in a disastrous June 24 trade.  Youkilis and his career .874 OPS were sent to the White Sox for Zach Stewart and Brent Lillibridge, neither of whom is currently on the Boston roster.  Stewart and his career 5.92 ERA have been in Triple-A Pawtucket since the trade, and Lillibridge was traded for a minor league pitcher after just ten games in Beantown.  Youkilis has posted a very solid .856 OPS in Chicago, and his production has been desperately missed by Boston with Middlebrooks making two trips to the disabled list in the past two months.  When Youk made his first return to Boston on July 16, Valentine publicly blamed him for allowing their feud to fester.

Valentine has made other glaring mistakes.  After receiving direct orders from the Boston medical staff not to play Carl Crawford more than four games in a row, Valentine promptly started Crawford in 6 straight games when he returned after missing the first 89 games this year due to injury.  Valentine admitted that he knowingly violated the orders of his medical staff in doing so.  Crawford has also revealed that he will require Tommy John surgery to repair his left elbow, yet Valentine continues to start Crawford despite Boston being well out of the playoff race.  Crawford has not received a day off for 16 consecutive games.

On April 25, Valentine initially filled out the wrong lineup card because he used his cellphone to research Twins pitcher Liam Hendriks and failed to discover that Hendriks was right-handed.  Earlier this year, Valentine admitted to making a biting, sarcastic comment to Middlebrooks after the rookie had a particularly difficult inning on defense.  And Jon Lester has somehow been allowed to throw more than 116 pitches on six separate occasions this year.  This is the kind of incompetence which hasn’t been seen since Cubs manager Dusty Baker was destroying the arms of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood over a decade ago.

The most recent media reports indicate that a large number of Boston players met privately with Red Sox owner John Henry at the end of July to complain about Valentine.  The reports allege that veterans Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia and 15 other players claimed that they could not or would not play for Valentine.

In Valentine’s defence, he hasn’t been given all the tools he needs to compete in the A.L. East.  With the pre-season injury to closer Andrew Bailey, Boston has been operating without any semblance of a true finisher in the bullpen all year.  Star outfielders Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury have missed significant time with injury.  Josh Beckett and Daniel Bard have been absolute disasters in the starting rotation.  And the high pressure environment that is Boston baseball never helps when a struggling club is trying to regain its confidence and identity.

But when your club has the third highest payroll in all of baseball ($173 million), you should be able to deal with the adversity which inevitably occurs during the course of a six month regular season.  Good teams find ways to win in difficult circumstances; unfortunately, Valentine isn’t winning and is helping to create the difficult circumstances.  The mistakes Valentine has made this year are ones which may be expected of a rookie manager, not a man who has managed for thirteen seasons in MLB.

Terry Francona was fired because he became too much of a player’s manager in 2011 and allowed the players under his watch to become too complacent and distracted.  Bobby Valentine was hired to restore order and discipline in the Red Sox clubhouse, but he has been too abrasive to allow the players to become comfortable in their roles.   Valentine has proven that he can’t handle the players, doesn’t listen to his medical staff, and lacks the tact and diplomacy required of a manager in Boston.

The Red Sox needed a culture change this season, but Valentine clearly does not have the respect he needs from his players to lead this team to a winning record, let alone playoff glory.  Regardless of whether the players are right or wrong in their rejection of Valentine, when a manager loses his clubhouse, he has to be fired.

The Red Sox currently sit fourth in the A.L. East with a 57-60 record, and the playoffs and Boston’s last two World Championships now seem like distant memories.  Valentine needs to be fired right now if the Red Sox want to salvage anything out of this season or avoid completely turning over their roster this offseason.  A coaching change could breathe new life into the Sox to help make a desperate push for the playoffs. Valentine received a public vote of confidence from Red Sox ownership on August 7, which by my calculation means that he is going to be fired in the last two weeks of this season.

..and that’s the Last Word.

AFC West: The Oakland Raider Rebuilding Project

2002 was the last time the Raiders made the playoffs, making them the owners of  the second longest playoff drought in the NFL.  Life in Oakland has been anything but sweet, as their futility has been mostly due to their own ineptitude, rather than the result of a divisional powerhouse.  Don’t get me wrong, San Diego has been a road block, just not as much as the Patriots have been to the Bills and Steelers/Ravens have been to the Browns, the two other franchises with long playoff droughts.  And besides, to make the playoffs you usually need to have a winning record – something else the Raiders haven’t accomplished in nine season. When a team is this bad for this long you can only point to one thing – management.

The errors in Oakland have been plentiful and well documented.  They change head coaches far too often.  They trade away high future draft picks for past-their-prime players (Richard Seymour, Carson Palmer – you get the idea).  When there isn’t an over-the-hill veteran to their liking they prefer to trade those same high future draft picks for mid-round picks in the current year.  In the 2011 Draft for instance, the Raiders traded their 2012 2nd-rounder to draft lineman Joe Barksdale (no starts) and running back Taiwan Jones (16 carries). This is the reason the Raiders haven’t made a draft pick in the first round since 2010.  This year they were without a pick until the 3rd round. Next year they will be without either their 1st or 2nd rounder, depending on this season’s success, thanks to the Carson Palmer trade.

As aforementioned their last first round pick was in 2010, where they took 8th-overall, Rolando McClain, a heavy hitting linebacker from Alabama who might have fit right into the MLB spot on the Oakland defense in 1993.  But in the pass focused league of 2012 McLain is a liability.  He was one of the most targeted and least effective linebackers in coverage in the entire league last season (Football Outsiders Almanac 2012).  McClain is simply not a three down player in the NFL, and you cannot afford to waste top 10 picks on 2-down players.  Rolando is an illustration of how the Raiders have been doing things, which is probably best categorized as “their way”.

No team seems to follow their own rules and draft “consensus” late round players higher and more often than the Raiders.  The decision to take a gamble on these poorly rated players usually comes down to one attribute: speed.  Doing things this way hasn’t always produced negative results.  It allowed them to select Darrius Heyward-Bey in 2009 and Denarius Moore in 2011.  It has brought them running backs Darren McFadden and the aforementioned Taiwan Jones, potential all-stars who have never seen a full season on the field.  But overall the Oakland player personnel philosophy has too often left the team short-handed at key positions.

This is the case now as the franchise starts down a new path.    Al Davis has passed on and his son has taken over.  He immediately installed an outside GM to run the franchise and steer them in a different direction.  Reggie McKenzie was hired away from the Packers to presumably bring in some elements of the Green Bay way of doing things.  He was quick to dispatch head coach Hue Jackson and install his own man, Dennis Allen, the Raiders’ first head coach with a defensive background in, well, forever.

But change doesn’t bring instant results. Despite the Raiders poor finishes in the standings their tendency to bring in free agents to play key roles has left them tight against the cap.  McKenzie’s first moves after hiring a coach was to let go of several capable veterans for salary cap purposes.  Even more troubling is that key contributors like Michael Bush and Stanford Routt, amongst others,  were allowed to leave as free agents.  The Raiders simply didn’t have the cap space to adequately replace all their losses.

Their recent losses have impacted the Raider defense the most.  Over the last two seasons they have lost their top two cornerbacks, Stanford Routt and Nnamdi Asomugha.  This offseason they let go of coveted pass rusher Kamerion Wimbley.  These are subtractions from a defense that already finished 27th against the pass last season.  Pass defense has always been a particular problem for the Raiders.  Over the last four seasons they have played eight games against elite quarterbacks and have given up an average of over 37 points per game and held only one team to less than 30 points (QB’s: Eli, Peyton, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger).  The only elite QB they have had any success against is division rival Philip Rivers.  Even against him they are 3-5 over the last four seasons with an average of over 25 ppg against.

Going against the Raiders when they were up against a top QB was one of the surest things in sports (as I pointed out in my picks column for week 2 last season vs. NE, but someone totally dismissed for week 14 against Green Bay).  But all that may change now as Dennis Allen comes to town with his own brand of defensive football.  As defensive coordinator in Denver last season Allen was able to piece together a decent unit out of mostly scraps, so there is some hope for this Raiders defense for the first time in ages.

The other side of the ball in Oakland is a different story.  Years of drafting for speed have left this squad with an abundance of potential on offense.  McFadden, Jones, Heyward-Bey and Moore are four of the fastest players in the league.  If they could ever stay healthy together the Raiders could have one of the most explosive offenses in the league.

However, quarterback Carson Palmer is a bit of an enigma.  After some rough years in Cincinnati he was able to settle into a groove late last season in Oakland.  He returns to lead the team this year but will be learning a new offense. He offers intriguing possibilities as their leader, but at 32, it is a long shot to be able play well enough to carry a substandard defense.  That means a lot of the workload will fall on 5th year back, Darren McFadden.  Not many players have the potential to be the best running back in the NFL but McFadden is one of them, and all he needs to do is complete a full season.  In 2010 he was able to start 13 games, while in his other three seasons he has failed to hit double-digit starts.  The depth behind McFadden is not strong and the experience on the rest of the offense doesn’t match the potential.

Oakland has an intriguing roster.  But for them to contend for the playoffs they would have to stay remarkably healthy all year-long because they simply do not have the depth.  I think GM Reggie McKenzie and coach Dennis Allen know they are part of a major rebuilding process this season and this led to their decisions to let so many players go this offseason.  With their still aging roster and lack of draft picks I wouldn’t be surprised if this rebuilding is a long-term project.

Because of their unique offense I could see Oakland getting off to a hot start or even going on a strong short-term run mid-season.  But in the end they aren’t deep enough to compete for a full 16 game schedule.  Expecting more than eight wins from the Raiders this year is unrealistic.

The beat goes on…

Find team-by-team analysis in my column, “3rd String NFL”

 

Boyd Bounced from Argos, Lands in Edmonton

Sunday, in a surprising move, the Toronto Argonauts released current leading CFL rusher Cory Boyd.  After six games, Boyd has run for 447 yards and averaged 5.5 yards per carry.  Chad Kackert is expected to replace Boyd at the starting running back position.

Just hours later, Boyd agreed to terms with the Edmonton Eskimos, showing that at least one other CFL team (and probably more than that) recognizes his huge value on the field.

Both Argos General Manager Jim Barker and Head Coach Scott Milanovich stated Boyd currently does not fit into their newly revised offensive plan in 2012 of putting more emphasis on passing the football.  In addition, Milanovich stated “there’s more to playing tailback than the numbers.”  Rumours began floating around Monday that Boyd became a distraction in the Argos locker room and upset many plays were not coming his way.  Former Argo lineman Rob Murphy complained Boyd was two-faced.  He would be very pleasant and nice to the media praising God, but when the cameras were off, he revealed his selfish side.

I make no bones about my dislike for the Toronto Argonauts and  I like to remind everybody of that when the opportunity presents itself.  And I’ve never really been a Cory Boyd fan either, probably because he played for that dreaded blue team.  I do my best to put feelings aside when writing about the double blue, but this decision by Argos management really puzzles me.  I can’t believe they couldn’t come to an agreement with Boyd and work this issue out.  Also, one doesn’t need to be an offensive coordinator to understand the importance of having a balanced attack and have opposing defences guess whether the offense will run or throw the ball.

Kackert is excellent, but he is not Cory Boyd.  Kackert doesn’t have the same gumption as Boyd does, and won’t fight for those extra yards with the same vigour as Boyd either.  As a result, the Argos won’t gain as many yards on the ground and will resort to passing the ball more often.  Opposing defences will then key on the passing game and blitz quarterback Ricky Ray, who cannot escape danger when the pocket collapses, resulting in more sacks being given up by the Argos.   This new Argo aerial attack is also struggling too.  Ray threw four interceptions in an 18-9 loss to the BC Lions in week five of CFL action.  So you see, a poor management decision can very much have a snowball effect.

Milanovich also stated this decision was made so the Argos could become a winning football team, instead of a .500 one.  The bottomline is that I think this was a poor, shortsighted decision by the Argos that ultimately could cost them a Grey Cup berth at home this November.

What do you think?

…and that is the Last Word.

Feel free to leave comments below.

Top Shelf Prospects: New York Rangers

Welcome to today’s edition of “Top Shelf Prospects” – a team-by-team look at the top prospects in the NHL. Today, as I continue my alphabetical journey through the NHL I bring you a look at the New York Rangers. As always you can find a complete listing of my previous articles here. Since we had an extensive NHL Draft preview, I will not be reviewing the players who were drafted in the 2012 draft, as there have been no games since then, and my reports on them will not have changed. What I will be doing is linking you to those articles, as well as taking a look at prospects that were acquired before this year’s draft; their progress, and their chances of making the 2012-13 roster of the NHL team in question. I will also bring you one sleeper pick – a player who was either drafted in the 4th-round or later, or was an undrafted free agent signing who I pick as my darkhorse to make the NHL. For those wondering, the cut-off for what is or isn’t a prospect is typically about 45-50 NHL games played or being 25 years old. These are not hard or fast rules though, and I may make some exceptions depending on the circumstances.

2012 Draft Prospects Reviewed:
Brady Skjei, Cristoval “Boo” Nieves, Calle Andersson,

Notes: Carl Hagelin is considered graduated.

 

Top Prospect: Chris Kreider, Left Wing
Born Apr 30 1991 — Boxford, MA
Height 6.03 — Weight 225 — Shoots Left
Selected by the New York Rangers in round 1, #19 overall at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft

It was a whirlwind year for the Rangers 2009 first round draft pick. In his junior season at Boston College, Kreider had a real offensive breakout scoring more than double the goals of his sophomore year, and nearly double the points. In February he was heavily involved in Rick Nash trade rumors and highly coveted by the Columbus Blue Jackets, but Glen Sather refused to give him up. In April he led his Boston College Eagles to the Hockey East title (his third straight) and NCAA Frozen Four and National Championship win (his second in 3 years). He would follow that up by signing his ELC, joining the New York Rangers for the Stanley Cup playoffs and potting 5 goals in helping the team reach the Eastern Conference Finals.  After that kind of year, its easy to see why the hype on Kreider is off the charts right now.

Kreider is a goal-scoring power forward. He is blessed with great skating ability.  He generates great speed for a big man and is able to take defencemen wide on the rush, or be the first guy in on the forecheck to lay a big hit.  He has excellent balance and is very strong on his skates making him difficult to knock off the puck.   He also has an NHL ready shot, a hard accurate wrister with a deceptive release.  Kreider projects as a natural sniper.  He didn’t really show it in the NHL playoffs, but Kreider also has decent vision and can be a bit of a playmaker as well.  A big difference in his final year at BC, and earlier seasons was that he was much more calm and poised with the puck on his stick.  He didn’t show that in the NHL, however this is something that should come with NHL experience.  While others have criticized him for rushing plays, I don’t feel that its a huge concern right now.  The one area that he can really impove in and take his game to the next level offensively is winning more board battles for loose pucks.  He’s decent at it, but a player with his size and quick hands should be able to dominate.  Adding some more muscle mass may help him to do that.

Kreider’s defensive game is a work in progress.  He is certainly a willing backchecker, and he works hard, but he needs better fundamentals.  He chases the puck too much, and gets himself out of position defensively, and loses his man.  While the Rangers played a very disciplined defensive system, it seemed that in the playoffs Kreider wasn’t quite on the same page with the rest of the team.  This is understandable as he didn’t have the full year of drills and coaching from John Tortorella, so we should see it improve this year.

Kreider is a lock to make the Rangers roster and many are hyping him as a Calder Candidate based on his playoffs.  I personally think people need to take a step back with him.  While Kreider is a great prospect he is by no means a finished product.  I expect he will have a season of ups and downs in the big apple as he continues to develop his defensive game and adjust to the speed of the NHL.  He’s an excellent prospect, but we should temper our expectations on him a little bit.  Its is not reasonable to expect that everything will go as well as things did in 2011-12, and while he will be a very good player in time, expect the typical ups and downs most young NHLers face.

 

Top Prospect #2:  J.T. Miller, Centre
Born Mar 14 1993 — East Palestine, OH
Height 6.02 — Weight 195 — Shoots Left
Selected by the New York Rangers in round 1 #15 overall at the 2011 NHL Entry Draft

With 12 points in 6 games at the 2011 IIHF World Under 18 Championships, J.T. Miller was a key player in leading the United States to the gold medal.  Miller was originally scheduled to attend the University of North Dakota after graduating from the US NTDP, but after being drafted by the Rangers, he signed and ELC with the Rangers, foregoing his NCAA eligibility and joining the Plymouth Whalers of the OHL. Miller had a good season in Plymouth scoring at over a Point Per Game Pace.

Miller is a rugged forward who plays a very straightforward but effective game. He is a good skater, and uses his speed to be an effective forechecker, wearing down defenders with hits, and forcing them into making mistakes. He is also effective at winning board battles, and uses his size and strength to compete in the dirty areas of the ice. Miller loves to go to the front of the net where he scores a lot of rebounds and tip ins. He also has a very good shot and quick release which he can use to score goals off the slot or from the faceoff circles. As a centre Miller’s game is hurt by his average vision and playmaking ability and his future in the NHL may be as more of a winger than a pivot man.

Miller also plays a strong defensive game. He kills penalties and is used to match up against other teams’ top lines. Miller is a physical rugged centre who pressures the puck carrier and strives to keep his man to the outside in the offensive zone. He has good positioning and defensive hockey sense. He could use a little bit better pivotsand edgework to help him deal with the fastest opponents, but this is a minor complaint on an overall above average defensive game.

Miller is not yet NHL ready. He will require more development time. Normally a CHL player Miller’s age would be returned to the CHL after training camp, however since Miller only joined the Whalers after being drafted by an NHL club, he is not subject to the same restrictions. The Rangers will have to choose if he is to go back to the OHL’s Plymouth Whalers, or join the AHL’s Connecticut Whale next season.

 

Prospect #3 Christian Thomas, Right Wing
Born May 26 1992 — Toronto, ONT
Height 5.09 — Weight 170 — Shoots Right
Selected by the New York Rangers in round 2 #40 overall at the 2010 NHL Entry Draft

The son of long-time NHLer Steve “Stumpy” Thomas, Christian Thomas is a natural goal scorer. This is seen through the 129 goals he scored over the last 3 years in the OHL. Thomas has an NHL level wrist shot and release, he is just a deadly sniper at the OHL level. He also has very soft hands and good puck control ability.

Thomas’ skating stride is short and choppy, however, it works very well for him as he has good top-end speed and very good acceleration. His agility and edgework is top notch, and he uses quick precise cuts and changes in speed to beat defenders one on one. He has good balance and a solid low centre of gravity.

The knock on Thomas has always been, and always will be his lack of size. However despite being only 5’9″ he does not shy away from working the boards or the front of the net. A hard worker, Thomas tries to overcome this limitation. The one area that it really hurts him is in the defensive end of the ice where bigger stronger forwards can quite simply overpower him.

Thomas needs time to add muscle and strength to his frame. Expect to see him in the AHL with the Connecticut Whale this season.

 

The Anti-Sleeper Prospect Dylan McIlrath, Defence
Born Apr 20 1992 — Winnipeg, MAN
Height 6.05 — Weight 215 — Shoots Right
Selected by New York Rangers in round 1 #10 overall at the 2010 NHL Entry Draft

I didn’t really want to profile McIlrath as I am just not a fan of his game.   I really think that his potential upside is limited to be at best a #4 defenceman in the NHL, and even then I find it more likely he is a third pairing guy.  However, I knew that if I didn’t profile a recent 10th overall selection, that I wouldn’t be doing justice to you, the reader, so in a surprise twist, I’m giving you an Anti-Sleeper today.  A player who I feel was drafted too high, and is overhyped and overrated.

McIlrath was a surprise selection at 10th overall in the 2010 draft.  While most analysts had him as a first-round pick, he was more often ranked in the late first round.  I think there were few, if any, draft watchers who had McIlrath being taken ahead of fellow defencemen Cam Fowler and Brandon Gormley.  While McIlrath is still young, and there is plenty of time left for him to develop, I don’t think you’ll find too many scouts who would put McIlrath ahead of those players today.

Lets get to the positives on McIlrath.  He has outstanding size and a mean streak to match.  He is a physical presence on the ice, and opposing forwards must always keep their heads up if skating down his end of the ice.  He is always looking to dish out a huge hit.  He is also extremely strong and powerful.  He keeps the crease clear, and wins the majority of his one on one battles on the boards.  He is also a willing fighter, who has won the majority of his fights at the WHL level.  McIlrath makes a solid first pass and starts the transition game well.

On the negative side, McIlrath is just not a very good skater.  His top-end speed and acceleration is below average.  He pivots as well as a mack truck, and his agility is a weak point.  He is victimized by forwards with speed and offensive creativity on a regular basis.  He also gets himself out of position looking for the big hit far too often, and if he misses, he’s toast.  He can be undisciplined and takes too many penalties. While his point shot is decent, his lack of mobility and inability to open up passing and shooting lanes likely means that this aspect of his game will be non-existent at the NHL level.

McIlrath is a long term project and will need time and excellent coaching at the AHL level if he is ever to live up to his lofty draft status.

 

Sleeper Pick: Michael St. Croix, Centre
Born Apr 10 1993 — Winnipeg, MAN
Height 5.11 — Weight 179 — Shoots Right
Selected by the New York Rangers in round 4 #106 overall at the 2011 NHL Entry Draft

To end things on a more positive note, a true sleeper and a player who I think was one of the best picks of the 2011 draft. Michael St. Croix is a talented forward who finished 8th in WHL scoring this season with 105 points in 72 games. The Oil Kings centre was tied for the team lead in playoff scoring as he led the club to their first-ever WHL Championship and a birth in the Memorial Cup.

St. Croix is a good skater with very good top-end speed and acceleration. He has great agility and edgework, and his shifty and elusive moves make him a nightmare for defenders one on one. Blessed with great vision, and the ability to feather a pass through the tiniest of openings, St. Croix is a natural playmaker. He also has a tremendous wrist shot and a great release, and it was his willingness to be a little more selfish and use that wrist shot a little more instead of always looking to pass that led to his breakout season this year.

Undersized, St. Croix will need to bulk up before going to the next level. He can play a little bit soft at times, and does not work the boards or front of the net as well as he should at all times. If he can add a little size, and play with just a little more grit, St. Croix has the talent to be a draft steal.  He needs time and we should expect to see him back in Edmonton playing for the Oil Kings this season.

In early round picks like Kreider, Miller, McIlrath, Skjei, Nieves, Fogarty, and others, it has become obvious that the Rangers philosophy is to continue to build a team based on size and physicality.  The current lineup features much of the same.  The Rangers future appears to be based around wearing down opponents and  playing the physically punishing game that took them so far this season.  In terms of high picks, the lone exception to this philosophy is Christian Thomas. As an organization, the Rangers have a ton of prospect depth, featuring a good number of players with solid NHL potential.  They do however lack a dynamic blue-chip forward prospect, or a future number 1 goaltender.  There are some very good players, but I don’t see a future superstar.  However, the big team is deep enough and young enough that they should be a contender for the next several years. With stars like Rick Nash, Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards and especially Henrik Lundqvist on the club,  The Rangers window to win the Cup starts now, and the good prospect depth will provide compliments to that core going forward.

Feel free to leave comments below and follow me on Twitter @lastwordBKerr.

AFC West Preview – What Lies Beneath the Real San Diego Chargers

The AFC West is one of the hardest division in the league to figure out this year.  Not because there are a bunch of good teams who are going to battle it out for 17 weeks before deciding an ultimate champion.  Rather, it’s hard to figure out if any one of the four teams in the division will be even good enough to finish over .500.  At first glance it may look like this won’t be a problem for the West division, but it is important to consider the schedule, too.  Each team in this division will face one of the toughest schedules in the league this year and that is sure to keep the division packed tightly all year long.  Since there is no clear favourite, let’s opt for the process of elimination.

The San Diego Chargers are receiving plenty of buzz this pre-season for being a strong contender in the AFC’s West division – same old, same old.  There is plenty of talk about the strong additions they have made to the defense and many are optimistic the offense can again rank amongst the elite units in the league this year. I think by focusing on the small additions the team made the real problem in San Diego is masked.

In the 2009 regular season the Chargers finished 13-3, but made no noise in the playoffs.  The following year they finished 9-7 (2nd in the division) and followed that up last year with another second place finish, at 8-8.  During that time they didn’t suffer significantly debilitating injuries and they weren’t beat-out by a juggernaut from within the AFC West.  In fact, the division has been quite weak.  In 2009, the Kansas City Chiefs won the division at 10-6 but only had a DVOA good enough for 17th overall.  Last season was even worse.  The Denver Broncos won the division with the unimpressive record of 8-8, and ranked a very unimpressive 22nd in total DVOA.

The Chargers simply weren’t good enough to capitalize, in spite of having the best quarterback in the division in Philip Rivers.  Now the division is turning a corner.  Peyton Manning has come to town to play for the reigning division champs.  The Chiefs are looking to improve on last year’s seven win season with a much healthier team.  The AFC West will be tougher than in past years and the fact of the matter is that San Diego has the worst team they have had in many years – a recipe for turmoil.

San Diego has had little turnover at some of its key positions in the past several years.  They still have Phillip Rivers, Antonio Gates, head coach Norv Turner, and GM AJ Smith.  Oh, and they still have those enticing powder blue uniforms.  All of this presents the illusion that the Chargers are still that 13-3 team from three seasons past, but really they are just a poor facsimile of that team.  Gone are the glory days of Ladainian Tomlinson.  Gone is Darren Sproles.  Gone is their top wide receiver, Vincent Jackson.  Gone are many of the players who made up a solid defense that helped San Diego dominate the division in the mid 2000’s (Jamall Williams, Shawne Merriman, Stephen Cooper, Antonio Cromartie, Kevin Burnett).

I am not convinced the Chargers have adequately replaced these players.  Malcolm Floyd and Robert Meachem have been tabbed as the Chargers starting wide receivers this year.  Neither is a bad player, but neither has had a distinguished career either.  Floyd is a long-time Charger who will turn 31 during the season, in spite of his age he has never started 10 games or caught 50 balls in a single season.  Meachem, a former first round pick, was picked up this offseason from New Orleans.  He contributed to a potent offense in New Orleans but was never the focal point, and he ,too, has never caught 50 passes.  These two will have a tough time replacing the production of two time pro-bowler Vincent Jackson.

Making their job tougher will be the recent loss of running back Ryan Mathews.  The Chargers play-action offense is much more effective with a commanding lead back.  Mathews has a broken collar bone, an injury that could see him return as early as week 1.  However, I am skeptical.  With a collarbone injury a player is totally sidelined, you cannot lift weights and cannot run until it is healed, and only once it is totally healed are you ready for any sort of contact again?  This is devastating for a RB who has had an injury in every year of his career so far and has already suffered through conditioning issues in his rookie season.  Even if Mathews can return healthy he hasn’t done anything to prove he can handle a full-time workload.  The defense has similar issues.  Except for Eric Weddle, any standout from years past is aging rapidly or has already been jettisoned.   While the Chargers have invested several picks in the defense recently their can be no guarantee they will be ready for prime time.

The 2006-2009 Chargers were one of the most dominating teams in the league.  They had one of the leagues top QB’s and had all-stars at several other key positions.  They probably should have won a Superbowl at some point, but this team is far removed from that opportunity now.  If the Chargers haven’t had what it takes to win the division each of the last two seasons with a roster superior to their division opponents then why can they be trusted to do it now?

A pick against the Chargers is always a risky one.  They own the division’s best quarterback, and if he stays healthy, possibly the division’s best player at any position, Antonio Gates.  In a division that lacks a clearly dominant team those two guys are enough to give the Chargers a chance to win any game.  While having Philip Rivers may make it tough for the Chargers to finish the season in last place, their inconsistency and diminished roster lead by coach Norv Turner almost guarantee they won’t finish in first either.

For other team previews, click here.

Feel free to leave your comments below and follow me on twitter @LastWordBrown

Man City and Chelsea in an Ugly Affair

The Community Shield isn’t something that I get particularly excited about, but given I haven’t had my dose of footy in months I suppose I can’t afford to be picky.  This year’s version, played between the defending Champions League winners, Chelsea (that just sounds dirty), and the deep-pocketed Manchester City, was an ugly affair.  Undisciplined and ugly.

While few players from either side have played meaningful matches in more than two months, I can understand a little built-up rust.  However, either the two sides forgot how to tackle properly or else they really, really hate each other.  Maybe a bit of both, on second thought.  If you had the chance to watch, you no doubt saw poor tackle after poor tackle, horrendous challenges, and plenty of rough stuff.  How about eight yellow cards and a straight red (Ivanovic)?  And all for the Community Shield – scoff, scoff.

Apparently Ivanovic didn’t get the memo that sliding studs-first is something to avoid.  Live and learn, right?  And of all people to show the bottom of his boots to, he chose his countryman, Kolarov.  That will make for some nice conversation at the next International break, eh?  Ivanovic has some time to think about his actions as he will miss the upcoming contests against Wigan, recently promoted Reading, and Newcastle.

Free kick, after free kick littered much of first half play.  Some calls justified, others were anything but, while still others should have been harsher.  It was just messy football.  I just hope Kevin Friend doesn’t have Twitter, Facebook – actually, it would be best for him to avoid computers, radio and tele’s altogether.

I was particularly interested in seeing Eden Hazard in his first match.  I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t impressed by him. When Arsenal was rumored to be after the Belgian ages ago I was exceptionally excited at the prospect because I think he will become a successful Premier League player. Successful, but not iconic. He had a good game, got his first sniff of the Prem, and I think that’s all Chelsea were looking for. It can’t be easy to adjust to a different league altogether.

I don’t put much stock in the final scores of preseason matches. I am much more interested in seeing how players react to game-like situations, which will benefit them early in the season, so long as they can stay healthy. The goals scored by City in the second half  have little worth considering the two sides are in preseason form, and the fact that Chelsea were down a soldier pawn.  Yes, Tevez scored a nice goal with his head, but still, 11 vs. 10 and preseason.

The real action starts this weekend.  If there is one thing we can all agree on, it’s that the Premier League is very much welcomed back into all of our lives.

Follow me on Twitter – @TwoLeftCleats

 

Top Shelf Prospects: New York Islanders

Welcome to today’s edition of “Top Shelf Prospects” – a team-by-team look at the top prospects in the NHL. Today, as I continue my alphabetical journey through the NHL I bring you a look at the New York Islanders. As always you can find a complete listing of my previous articles here. Since we had an extensive NHL Draft preview, I will not be reviewing the players who were drafted in the 2012 draft, as there have been no games since then, and my reports on them will not have changed. What I will be doing is linking you to those articles, as well as taking a look at prospects that were acquired before this year’s draft; their progress, and their chances of making the 2012-13 roster of the NHL team in question. I will also bring you one sleeper pick – a player who was either drafted in the 4th-round or later, or was an undrafted free agent signing who I pick as my darkhorse to make the NHL. For those wondering, the cut-off for what is or isn’t a prospect is typically about 45-50 NHL games played or being 25 years old. These are not hard or fast rules though, and I may make some exceptions depending on the circumstances.

2012 Draft Prospects Reviewed:
Griffin Reinhart, Ville Pokka, Adam Pelech,

 

Top Prospect: Ryan Strome, Centre
Born Jul 11 1993 — Mississauga, ONT
Height 6.01 — Weight 183 — Shoots Right
Selected by the New York Islanders in round 1 #5 overall at the 2011 NHL Entry Draft

Ryan Strome brings high end offensive potential to the Islanders. The talented Ice Dogs centre has been driving the Ice Dogs offence for the last two years when he scored at a pace of nearly 1.6 points per game. He was also an offensive catalyst for Canada’s Bronze Medal winning 2012 World Junior Championship squad, scoring 9 points in 6 games.  He missed time this season after being sucker-punched in a January game and receiving some facial fractures, but came back strong and finished the season, and was a dynamic player in leading Niagara to the OHL final where they lost to London.

Strome has all the offensive talent you would look for in a young player.  He is a terrific skater.  He has good top end speed, good acceleration, and his great ability to change speeds, and terrific agility help him to beat defenders.  He is also a terrific stickhandler, with great puck protection, and silky smooth hands and moves (click here to see the goal that made Strome a youtube sensation).  Add to that the creativity and confidence to try anything and he is extremely dangerous off the rush.  Strome has the vision and creativity to be an outstanding playmaker as he is able to feather passes through the smallest of openings, and set up teammates with quality scoring chances.  As a sniper, he is NHL ready, having a fantastic wrist shot and release, an excellent slapshot, and a great one timer.

Strome’s issues are on the defensive side of the puck.  He improved that aspect of his game last year but there is still a ways to go.  He needs to get better in the faceoff circle especially if he is to face NHL caliber centres.  He also needs to work on his defensive zone coverage as he does have a tendency to puck watch and stop moving his feet which can cause him to be beaten by his man in coverage.  He could also stand to add some upper body strength for when he will be required to contain bigger, stronger pros off the cycle.

The Islanders hope that Strome can eventually team with John Tavares to provide the team with an elite 1-2 Punch at the centre position. At this point in his career, Strome is looking like a ‘tweener, he has dominated at the OHL level, and there isn’t a lot more for him to learn there.  However, he might need a little bit more development time, and its not clear if he’s NHL ready.  It will be difficult for Strome to work on his defensive game in a league where he will be a dominant offensive player, as he just won’t be challenged in his end of the ice at even strength very often.  The AHL would be an ideal option, unfortunately Strome can not play in the AHL until the 2013-14 season under the current rules. While the CHL/NHL agreements are up in the air, its not a rule that is expected to change in the new deal. Unless Strome comes in to training camp and dominate, the Islanders will face a difficult decision, whether to send Strome back to a league where he will dominate the competition and play big minutes at a level that is below his talent, or bring him to the NHL a little early and be forced to carefully manage his minutes and role. It was a decision they faced last season with Nino Niederrieter and the wisdom of keeping him in the NHL has been questionned.

 

Top Prospect #2: Brock Nelson, Centre/Left Wing
Born Oct 15 1991 — Warroad, MN
Height 6.03 — Weight 205 — Shoots Left
Selected by the New York Islanders in round 1, #30 overall at the 2010 NHL Entry Draft

Brock Nelson really came into his own this season at North Dakota playing on the first line for the Fighting Sioux now nameless UND squad.  Nelson showed the powerforward potential that made him a first round pick in 2010, in his sophmore year scoring 28 goals and 47 points in 42 games.   He spent time at both Centre and Left Wing for the Sioux.  After winning his second WCHA conference title, but losing in the NCAA tournament, Nelson decided to turn pro and signed his ELC with the New York Islanders, joining the Bridgeport Sound Tigers for 4 games at the end of the year.  He is the nephew of 1980 US Olympic “Miracle” team member Dave Christian, who also played 1000 career NHL games, mainly with the Jets, Capitals, and Bruins.

Nelson is the prototypical power forward prospect.  He has great size and a strong and powerful skating stride.  He has great speed, agility and balance and can drive a defenceman wide on the rush and take the puck hard to the net.  He has quick soft hands in tight and can score off the rush, or on tip ins, and rebounds when set up in front of the net.   He has an NHL ready wrist shot and release which he uses to great effect if defenders back off too much on him.  He has a great one timer, which he often unleashes on the powerplay.  Nelson uses his outstanding size and strength to win battles on the boards, and to fight for space in front of the net.

Nelson is also known for his defensive ability.  He is a tenacious backchecker who pressures the puck smartly and efficiently.  He continues to use his size and strength to win board battles.  He contains opponents to the outside and does a great job of always keeping himself between his man and the net.  His long reach helps him to cut down passing lanes and create turnovers.  Going forward Nelson has the complete package.

I realize that I am going against conventional wisdom in calling Nelson the Islanders’ second best prospect, but I am a huge fan of this player.  I feel that other reports on him have consistently underrated this player and that he is a real up and comer amongst NHL prospects.  Nelson probably needs a year in Brideport to adjust to the speed of the pro game, and the rigours of a longer season than he was accustomed to in high school and college hockey, but I feel he will continue making strides forward and will be a real force to be reckoned with when he makes the NHL.

 

Top Prospect #3: Calvin de Haan, Defence
Born May 9 1991 — Carp, ONT
Height 6.00 — Weight 180 — Shoots Left
Selected by New York Islanders round 1 #12 overall 2009 NHL Entry Draft

Calvin de Haan has held a lot of promise as an offensive defenceman, and the Islanders moved multiple picks to trade up and get the young defender at 12th overall in the 2009 Draft.  The Islanders took John Tavares 1st overall that year, and hoped that by getting the powerplay quarterback he had played with in Oshawa, the two would carry their chemistry to the NHL.  Whether that can still happen remains to be seen, but de Haan’s development to date has not gone as expected.  He has been hampered by injuries (mostly shoulder injuries), and lower than expected production at the AHL level.  However despite this, the high talent level that made de Haan such a valued commodity at the 2009 Draft is still present, and he is still far too young to be given up on at this stage.   It is hoped that de Haan can stay healthy long enough to begin to live up to those expectations this season.

De Haan`s offensive game comes from his great decision making and poise with the puck.  He is a patient player with good puckhandling, and puck protection abilities and is able to waits for openings in the defence to emerge.  He walks the line extremely well opening up passing and shooting lanes.  De Haan`s slapshot is extremely accurate, and he does a good job of getting shots through and keeping them low, however he could use more power behind it.

Skating wise, De Haan`s top end speed is merely slightly above average, however he does have good agility, edgework, and crisp pivots.  He is not one who often leads the rush, but a good first pass out of the zone can be used to create a quick transition.  His high hockey IQ leads him to join the rush at opportune occasions, and to pinch in from the blue line at just the right time.

Defensively de Haan`s ability to read the play well and good positioning are strong assets.  His ability to move the puck quickly is important to helping spend minimum time in the defensive zone.  De Haan is a willing shot blocker but needs some work on his technique and not over committing himself too early.  He also must get much stronger as he could stand to win more board battles and better contain opponents.  Increased upper body strength could also help him to reduce the number of injuries he has sustained to date.

De Haan certainly has the potential to make the Islanders squad out of training camp this year, but there are no guarantees.  He will need to show that he bulked up over the off-season and is physically ready to handle the rigors of the NHL game in order to earn a spot on the big club.  He very well could star the season back in Bridgeport to work on his strength and some aspects of his defensive game.

 

Sleeper Pick: Casey Cizikas, Centre
Born Feb 27 1991 — Toronto, ONT
Height 5.10 — Weight 192 — Shoots Left
Selected by New York Islanders round 4 #92 overall 2009 NHL Entry Draft

Like Jon Merrill, who was profiled yesterda, Casey Cizikas is another young prospect with a troubled past.  However, the big difference here is that Cizikas has spent the last two years with his nose clean and without any hint of trouble.  It would appear that the young man has moved past the tragic incident that marred his draft year and the legal questions that caused a player of his caliber to fall much lower than he would otherwise have been picked. Cizikas has gone on play for Team Canada in the 2011 World Juniors, bringing home a silver medal. He would go on to lead his Mississauga St. Mikes team to an OHL finals appearance which included a game 7 OT loss to Owen Sound, and a Memorial Cup Final loss at home to Saint John. He would follow that up with a solid rookie season in the AHL, and a callup to the NHL where he would play 15 games for the Islanders. Most analysts, and many of the lawyers I’ve talked to believe that the incident that has marred Cizikas early career is very much a murky issue with tragic consequences. While we certainly feel for the family who lost a young man that day, many believe that the wrong verdict was rendered and that this unfortunate incident was indeed entirely accidental and related to the physicality of a game like rugby. Fortunately, Cizikas appears to have moved past the incident, and while it will probably always haunt him in some way, it will not hold him back from an NHL career.

Cizikas is  an extremely good skater and is often the first man on the puck on the forecheck. He is great at creating offence off of the forecheck putting pressure on opposing defenders and causing turnovers in the offensive end of the ice.  He has decent vision and can set up linemates after pouncing on the loose pucks.  He also has a decent shot, but could use a bit of a quicker release.  His hands in tight are good and he can pounce on rebounds and tips.  Cizikas can occasionally pull out the odd dangle and will show flashes of surprising high end skills as well.  However these are a little too infrequent at this point to project Cizikas as a top 6 player.

Cizikas is defensively responsible and plays an agitator’s role despite his size.  He pressures the puck extremely well and is not afraid to get involved in scrums with bigger, stronger opponents.  His high pressure game causes a lot of turnovers, and Cizikas has the speed to quickly turn these into transition offence.  He is willing to sacrifice his body to block shots and works hard with a tenacious drive to win loose pucks.  Cizikas is an effective penalty killer who can be a threat short handed as well.

After playing 15 games with the Islanders last season, Cizikas will enter camp looking for a bottom 6 role on the big club.  He certainly has the talent to earn a further stint with the big club, but will need to have a good camp to do so.  The Islanders have a number of good young players and the competition for spots is high.  Cizikas’ NHL future likely lies in a 3rd line role where his energy and defensive responsibility will be important traits going forward.  Any extra offence he can add in that role will be a welcome addition.

 

After years of high draft picks the Islanders have assembled a good supply of young talent. The prospect pool is deep in all positions.  As we can see the centre depth is extremely strong, and will complement superstar young centre John Tavares nicely.  The Islanders have a solid defence core that will be built around Travis Hamonic, Griffin Reinhart and Calvin de Haan. Matt Donovan, Ville Pokka, Scott Mayfield, and the plethora of newly drafted defencemen provide depth.  On the wings the Isles boast young NHLers like Michael Grabner, Kyle Okposo, and El Nino, and boom or bust prospects David Ullstrom, Kirill Kabanov, and Kirill Petrov.  It may not seem that deep but some of the excess centres may be converted to wing going forward.  In goal they have their goalie of the future in Kevin Poulin.  What the Islanders must now do is find the proper mix of veterans to help this young group mature into a solid NHL team, and compete in the tough Atlantic Division.

 

Feel free to leave your comments below and follow me on twitter @ LastWordBKerr.

UFC 150: Ben Henderson wins close, hardfought decision over Edgar

Many thought that the main event at UFC 150 between Ben Henderson and Frankie Edgar was the fight that never happened. Some people thought that the victory by Ben Henderson in the previous match-up was controversial, and that Edgar should have retained his title; others thought that Ben Henderson deserved the belt. At any rate, the first match-up left enough questions that Dana White thought it necessary to have an immediate re-match – which brings us to where we are.

Ben “Smooth”/”Bendo” Henderson left the cage with his hand raised last night after a five-round war with a split-decision victory. Unfortunately, he did nothing to silence the speculation, given the close fought nature of the battle.

Let’s get one thing straight: In 90% of cases, I can’t stand immediate re-matches. I think they are disrespectful to the next contender in line. Unless there was clearly some suspect judging at play (e.g. Machida v. Shogun I), you can’t just give a fighter a mulligan after losing. At the end of the day: if you lost, you lost. You didn’t do enough to convince the people who you needed to convince that you should have had your hand raised. Accept it. Now that we have that out of the way, let’s move along to the result of last night’s bout.

After watching five-rounds of non-stop action, I do believe that last night’s fight was a lot harder to determine than the first meet between these two. In the first match, Henderson clearly won in my eyes. I won’t give my scoring for this fight, because I am very biased (in that I think Frankie Edgar is a largely overrated fighter). Do I think that Henderson decisively secured the victory? Not by a long-shot.

That being said, I don’t think that there should be another re-match? No. Regardless of my opinions noted above, Frankie has bad two chances to prove that he can beat Ben Henderson. Assuming that there was judging error the first time, he could have done everything in his power to put that first fight to rest and lock down a finish – unfortunately, he did not. In fact there were very few moments in the fight where Frankie even went for the finish. It’s time to move on.

So, does Ben Henderson have the “Answer” for Frankie Edgar? Apparently in the eyes of the judges he does.

In his next match against Nate Diaz, I think he will need to show the flair and killer instinct that he has typically displayed in his previous matches. Diaz fights with a lot more aggression than Edgar does, and isn’t going to give Bendo the openings that he has had against Edgar.

In the meantime, Frankie Edgar will just have to ice his pride. If I were him, I would do the same thing that BJ Penn did after losing twice in a  row in a championship match (at the same weight class)  and change divisions. Realistically, a fighter can only have so many title shots in one division and still be considered a draw. Frankie may have one more good title run in him at lightweight – but, no one is going to want to watch another re-match against Ben Henderson. Moving down to 145lbs, Frankie could be to the featherweight division, what Georges St. Pierre is to welterweight; that is of course assuming he could dispatch of current champion Jose Aldo.

I will look forward to Henderson and Diaz in the coming months, because one thing is assured: win or lose, Diaz’s post-fight antics will guarantee no immediate re-match.

… and that is the last word.