This would have been an incredible game a year ago, with RG III at the helm for Baylor, but make no mistake, despite losing their starting QB, RB, and WR to the NFL, the Bears are still a formidable team, and they’ll be hoping to make West Virginia’s welcome to the Big 12 an unpleasant one.
The Baylor Offense: Senior QB Nick Florence has thrown for 300 yards or more and 3 TDs in each of the Bears’ first three games, in addition to averaging about 30 yards rushing. Granted, their first two games were against SMU and Sam Houston State, but last week they faced Louisiana-Monroe- the same team that dismantled Arkansas and nearly did the same to Auburn. With Florence throwing to Tevin Reese, Terrance Williams, Lanear Sampson, and Darryl Stonum, Baylor is averaging 51.3 points and over 350 passing yards per game. While Baylor’s running game is clearly secondary to the passing game, the Bears are ranked a respectable 35th nationally in rushing yards per game, averaging 207. Florence needs to avoid mistakes early on and take the rowdy Puskar Stadium crowd out of the game.
The Baylor Defense: Much of Baylor’s defense thus far has been predicated on turnovers. Already, six different players have at least one interception this season. Sophomore LB Bryce Hager is “the man” on the defense; if a big stop is needed, he’s the most likely candidate to make it. It’s hard to know what the defense will look like against what’s easily the best offense they’ve faced this season.
The West Virginia Offense: The passing game is excellent, with Heisman candidate Geno Smith at QB and studs like Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin at WR. Top RB Shawne Alston missed last week’s game but is expected to play Saturday, and RB Dustin Garrison should see more carries as he comes into form following ACL surgery. The Mountaineers; passing offense is the 3rd-best in the country, but the run game ranks a disappointing 69th. Maryland was able to slow the offense last week with a lot of blitzing; expect to see a similar plan of attack from the Baylor defense.
The West Virginia Defense: West Virginia’s pass defense ranks just 103rd in the nation, and has been giving up over 250 yards per game. Baylor’s efficient passing game and up-tempo rhythm will be a big test for the Mountaineers. West Virginia hasn’t been hurt badly by their defense, as evidenced by their 3-0 record, but that’s partly because they’ve been successful in forcing turnovers against the likes of Marshall, James Madison, and Maryland.
Prediction: This should be a high-scoring game between two potent offenses. Given that Baylor has the stronger defense, picking the Bears seems like a no-brainer. I’ve seen a lot of Big East games the last few years, though, and I know how well West Virginia can play. I’m taking the Mountaineers to win, 45-42.
