Yesterday I covered the Miami Dolphins, today, the next installment in the AFC East Preview Series, turns our attention to Buffalo where the Bills hope to end a ridiculous 12-year playoff drought. A busy offseason has brought hope to Bills fans for this upcoming season. Are these moves different from previous years? Have the Bills actually improved this year, or is it more false hope and hype like the signing of Terrell Owens a couple of years ago? Admittedly some of the Bills moves this offseason are harder to poke holes into than in the past, but let’s see if we can do it anyways.
The Bills big off-season splash, helping to propel their fans’ hopes over the moon this season, was the signing of defensive end Mario Williams, who received the richest contract ever signed for a defensive player. So is getting Williams alone enough to push the Bills defense over the hump? Williams has played for the terrible Houston Texans defense his entire career, and until last season they never finished a season as a top-16 defense in the league. Let’s also remember that last season was a year in which Williams missed the final 11 games of the year, while his team made the playoffs for the first time ever and finally cracked the top 10 on defense finishing 6th.
But Williams isn’t the only signing the Bills have made on the defensive line; they also picked up Mark Anderson who posted 10 sacks in the regular season and 2.5 sacks in the playoffs last season for the Patriots. So do these two make a dynamic pass rush duo? Well, let’s look at history, as this also won’t be the first time Williams and Anderson are teammates. They also hooked up for the 2010 Texans who were the 2nd worst defense in the NFL that year. My point here is not to disparage these two players, it is merely to say that these two alone are not enough to turn the Bills into a contender. But don’t worry Bills fans, it does get better.
Williams and Anderson are only two of the starters of the Bills new defensive line, and they may not even be the most two most important players on that line either. In the 2011 draft the Bills selected mammoth tackle Marcell Dareus 3rd-overall, and his talents were immediately apparent in his rookie season. Dareus could be an immovable object in the middle of the field for years to come. The Bills plan was to team Dareus with Kyle Williams to form a deadly inside duo to terrorize offensive lines. The plan fell through when Williams suffered a foot injury and missed most of the season. When healthy Williams is the Bills best defensive player and a threat to put pressure on the quarterback from the defensive tackle position. Having these two players healthy in the middle of the Bills defense may be a bigger boon to Buffalo than their shiny new pass rushing ends.
It isn’t often that we get to see two dominant defensive tackles play together and when they do the results can often mean destruction for opposing offenses. In the mid-2000’s the Jacksonville Jaguars rode defensive tackles John Henderson and Marcus Stroud to four-straight top ten defenses and the results when they were paired were almost instantaneous. The Minnesota Vikings had a similar pairing a few years later in Kevin and Pat Williams. These two behemoths dominated the NFC North and made the Vikings almost impossible to run against for a string of five straight years. Bills fans will remember Pat Williams from his tenure in Buffalo in the late 90’s and early 2000’s, especially when he was briefly paired with Sam Adams in the middle of the Bills defensive line. For two straight years the Bills were a force up the middle and were the number one defense in the league in 2004 owing in large part to the hefty contributions of these two men.
So the question is, can we expect to see the same from the Bills’ new twin towers? I don’t think it is unrealistic to think the pairing could dominate offensive lines for years to come. But when you pair them with the two new ends the Bills present a unique problem to opposing offenses. Often the teams best defensive linemen will be double teamed throughout the game. With the Bills it will be tough to focus on one player to double team because each of them is so dangerous. Having the four players together will present a nearly unblockable force that may be enough to make less physical and experienced teams wilt. The Ralph could be a very interesting place to watch opposing offenses operate this season.
The bigger question for the Bills then is, will the improvements on defence be enough?
What do I mean? Well if we concede the Bills will field an excellent defense in 2012 does that automatically point to team success? I am not so sure. The Bills can look inside of their division for evidence of this. The New York Jets have been positively dominant on defense since the arrival of Rex Ryan, and while it has led to two playoff births their regular season records have been less than stellar. The Jets have posted 9-7, 11-5 and 8-8 marks over the last three years and this is all while they have had the number one, number five and number two defenses in the league. This is not a problem unique to the Jets either. The Baltimore Ravens have made four straight playoff appearances since the arrival of Joe Flacco but before that their record was surprisingly spotty. In spite of the consistency of their defense the Ravens only made two playoff appearances in six years between 2002 and 2007. Shocking? Yes. This is the preeminent defense of the new millenium and even they struggled to join the post-season dance most of the time. The Bills defense can only hope to be as good as either of these units until we see them produce on the field.
You see where I am going with this? Yup. It’s all on you now Mr. Fitzpatrick. The Bills appear to have the offense in place that they want and the changes are going to be few and far between. They have two quality running backs, one of whom could be considered a legitimate star (Fred Jackson). Stevie Johnson is their man on the outside and he is complemented by David Nelson, Donald Jones and rookie, TJ Graham. Historically the Bills have rarely incorporated the tight end in the offense. However, last year Scott Chandler was a weapon early in the season for the Bills. Was Chandler just on a short half-season blip, or is he a legitimate Tight End? I tend to think he will not repeat his success. On the offensive line they lost LT Demetress Bell to the Eagles, but he is no big loss due to the number of times he was injured. However, the replacement will either be rookie 2nd-rounder Cordy Glenn, or Chris Hairston, and this doesn’t really improve their line this season either. Oh, and of course, Ryan Fitzpatrick is the man who makes it all go behind center. Is it enough? I think the answer to that question will be dependent on which Ryan Fitzpatrick shows up this season.
Everyone knows that the 2011 Bills story was a tale of two seasons, but also a tale of two QB’s. They started 5-2 behind Fitzpatrick’s efficiency and Fred Jackson’s occasional brilliance. Then they finished 1-8 with Jackson injured and Fitzpatrick playing like he has for much of his career before his hot early start. It has been revealed that Fitzpatrick played the last half of the season (after their 5th win) injured so the expectation should be that the offense will rebound in 2012 with a healthy QB. But when you look closer at the Bills early-season victories it does make you question how dominant the Bills offense really was. Buffalo started the year off by trouncing Kansas City, who later proved they were totally unprepared to start the season in September. They followed that up with big offensive showings against Oakland and New England. But these teams ended up at the bottom of the defensive rankings at year’s end, especially against the pass. The Bills were hardly dominant in these games either, requiring 21 and 17 point 4th quarters to win each game. Their other two victories came against Philly, who handed the Bills the game with five turnovers and then Washington (see City, Kansas and replace “September” with “October”).
Taking a closer look makes me question which offense is the real Bills offense and also how effective Fitzpatrick can really be even when healthy. I also don’t know if their offensive design is suited to winning in Buffalo in the winter months. Buffalo loves to spread it out and throw quick hitters. They led the league in 3 WR and empty backfield formations. This puts a lot of pressure on Fitzpatrick and he does not have the strong arm to help him deal with it. Over the last two seasons the Bills are only 3-7 in November and December at home. Admittedly, Fitzpatrick does a good job of getting the ball out and avoiding sacks but if he has to hold the ball then their line struggles in the face of a serious rush. This does not line up with the typical power football we would normally associate with winning in Buffalo in the cold.
Nevertheless this is an improved Bills squad with a distinct advantage over last years team – they play a very winnable schedule. The Bills, like the rest of the AFC East face off against the AFC South and NFC West this season. These are the two worst divisions in football and should provide the Bills with plenty of wins to pad their record. Also the Bills have a fascinating series of QB’s on the schedule this year. Outside of two games against Brady and one against Matt Schaub near mid-season the Bills don’t play a single other established veteran QB all season long. The closest thing they play is Matt Cassel and Alex Smith. Beyond them the names on the schedule are definite question marks from Sanchez to Weeden to Kolb to Luck. Look it up, it is truly bizarre.
Buffalo’s defensive improvements and favorable schedule will allow the Bills to be in the playoff hunt all season long. The determining factor could be as simple as how they perform against the Jets this season whom they lost both games to in 2011. But beyond just improvement against the Jets the Bills fate will come down to the entire final month of the season. They will be in playoff contention and they will play four of their final five games at home. Will the Bills step up and close the deal or will they crumble under expectation like the Bills we have grown accustom to? I think only Ryan Fitzpatrick can answer that question.
