It’s exactly a year today until the Rugby World Cup kicks off – but for over a year we’ve known the make-up of the groupings for the tournament. Before I go on I have to declare an interest (no – not in that – although it is another of my fantasies) – being English I watched in horror when Pool A was drawn and we ended up with both Wales and the Wallabies in the same group. This has universally (or at least in the rugby universe) been dubbed the ‘Group of Death’ – ‘GOD’ to give it a mnemonic – as in God knows what will happen and which of the giants will not make it to the knock out rounds. The potential was always there for this to happen – Wales dropping to ninth and France leap frogging (sic) England set the nightmare up and lo it came to pass (Judges 11:35). I have put in brackets current seedings (Sept 2014) for the top 3 in each group –
Group A – Australia (3), England (4), Wales (6)
Group B – SA (2), Samoa (9), Scotland (10)
Group C – NZ (1) Argentina (12), Tonga (13)
Group D – France (7), Ireland (5), Italy (14)
My question is why were the groups based on rankings two years out and just halfway between World Cups? Football has problems (Qatar?) but even FIFA doesn’t draw groups until 6 months out (December 2013 for a June 2014 kick-off) and base it on October 2013 rankings. They also have 32 teams in the finals and 207 sides competing in the qualification stages. So saying it is a complex process for rugby is a bit like saying that they have the X Factor because someone needs to turn the Christmas lights on in Scunthorpe (although that is true, obviously). Anyway the upshot (in the foot) is that Group A has teams currently ranked 3rd, 4th and 6th which makes the whole concept of seeding largely redundant. The idea of seeding is to try and make sure that the best teams do not play each other until later in the tournament – so IRB – that’s working well then! Group D doesn’t even have a current top 4 side in it! If the Rugby World Cup 2015 seedings had been planned for today i.e.one year before the kick–off it would have provided the start of a countdown and been a big media event (except for the Scottish Independent vote, obviously). The top 3 in the revised groups would therefore have been, assuming the same draw sequence –
Group A – Australia, Ireland, Samoa
Group B – SA, France, Argentina
Group C – NZ, Scotland, Fiji
Group D – England, Wales, Japan
There would still be plenty of opportunity for upsets and the new ‘Group of Death’ would have been B, with France and the Pumas fighting it out for qualification. There was a laughable media report in South Africa saying that the actual Group B made it tough for the Springboks – yeah right – up against the 9th and 10th ranked sides!
Whilst the groups make a nonsense of the seedings, not all teams, outside Group A, will necessarily be that happy – the All Blacks have often struggled when they have too easy a route to the quarter finals – the danger being they arrive at the knock out stages undercooked. What’s done is done – I just hope that the IRB take a more sensible route for the 2019 World Cup. Luckily I have an Aussie daughter- in- law and grandchildren so I’ll hopefully have at least one team to cheer after the group stages next year – unless Fiji do a ‘Wales 2007’ on them that is! My far less serious views on rugby are at www.rugbyoldbloke.wordpress.com – you can even leave rude or obscene messages there for me if you like.
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