Editorial (September 19, 2018) — Columbus Crew SC is currently embarking on arguably its toughest road trip of 2018. The first leg came on Saturday in the heat of Frisco, TX against FC Dallas, a game that ended scoreless. It culminates on late Wednesday night in the Eastern Time Zone with a matchup against the Portland Timbers.
Saturday’s result bucked a trend of high-scoring games across MLS this past weekend. Every other game had at least two combined goals. And there were certainly quite a few barn-burners. A whopping nine teams put up at least three tallies including Toronto FC and Sporting Kansas City who registered five apiece in wins against the LA Galaxy and San Jose Earthquakes respectively.
When it comes to finding the back of the net this season, fewer stories in MLS are better than Gyasi Zardes’ reemergence as one of the league’s top center forwards. Only Josef Martinez (28), Bradley Wright-Phillips (19) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (17) are ahead of him (15) in the 2018 Golden Boot standings. It’s a major reason Dave Sarachan called him into the USMNT’s most recent camp with him playing a total of 100 minutes in their two recent friendlies against Brazil and Mexico.
Columbus Crew SC Scoring Output: Gyasi Zardes Can’t Do It All by Himself
Zardes’ rediscovery of his goal-scoring touch is also partly responsible for the Black and Gold’s status as a near postseason lock. They currently sit fourth in the Eastern Conference standings which would guarantee a home knockout round match if they maintain that positioning. The club’s shutdown defense and the exploits of goalkeeper Zack Steffen are also playing a part. Crew SC is giving up the fourth-fewest goals in MLS this year.
But that doesn’t mean there are concerns as the season hits its home stretch. Perhaps the biggest issue in that regard is the fact Zardes is getting very little help in the goal-scoring department. That’s abundantly evident given the drop-off between Zardes and the team’s second-leading scorer, Federico Higuain, who has just four.
Not only that. There’s only one other player on the roster besides Zardes and Pipa, right back Harrison Afful, who’s registered two or more goals at this point. That puts Crew SC dead last in the league in terms of the number of players with more than one goal. To put that in perspective, Sporting Kansas City, currently first in the Western Conference standings, leads the league with 12.
History Has Proven a Team Effort in Scoring Wins Championships
Historically, there is a correlation between how many players on a given team registered a multi-goal season at the very least and winning a title. The average from among the 22 MLS Cup winners to date stands at 8.59. And such a notion makes sense. After all, soccer is a team sport. So it shouldn’t be surprising that more players on a given team contributing on the score sheet bodes well for their championship aspirations.
Another element to take in consideration is the percentage of team total goals your leading scorer accounts for. Specifically, you don’t want that number to be too high. Just once in MLS history has the champion had a player whose final regular season total was over 40 percent of his team’s. That came in 2002 when Carlos Ruiz’s 24 goals came out to over 54 percent of the LA Galaxy’s output that year, their first championship in club history.
The following chart provides the information discussed in the previous two paragraphs for all 22 MLS Cup champions. The bottom row takes all the totals from the selected categories and averages them out.
It would appear that the sweet spot with respect to what percentage of team goals your leading scorer is responsible for hovers around the 25 percent range give or take. In fact, Dwayne De Rosario and Landon Donovan accounted for exactly that total in leading their respective teams to a championship. So where does Zardes sit with Crew SC in 2018?
The answer lies in the following graphic that lists the above stats but for 2018 teams who are either near certainties to make the playoffs or have some modicum of a chance to qualify at this point in the season. It’s sorted by percentage of total team goals scored.
Obviously, there are still a few games remaining in the 2018 regular season. But this indicates that Zardes’ share of the Columbus goal total is a little on the high side. That’s especially evident given the historical chart above this one. Martinez’s percentage is also at a particularly lofty level but it’s kind of hard not to be given every single goal he scores from here until Decision Day will essentially make MLS history.
Gyasi Zardes’ Attacking Teammates Need to Do Their Part
In Zardes’ case, the fact he’s close to Martinez’s percentage despite scoring 13 fewer goals is a glaring indicator that his teammates need to step up. In particular, the club’s wide play, which was as fearsome as it got in MLS when Justin Meram and Ethan Finlay were on opposite ends, needs to improve dramatically. Pedro Santos has certainly demonstrated his playmaking ability with his six assists second on the team behind Higuain. But if he can do a better job finishing around goal, it will certainly help his team’s cause moving forward.
With six games left in the regular season, there needs to be a sense of urgency as it relates to giving Zardes some help. But there is promise that more Columbus players can reach at least two goals. Meram registered his first tally since returning to Crew SC in the club’s 2-1 win over New York City FC on September 1st. Santos has been immensely unlucky with a bevy of hit posts this season. Hopefully, that can even out down the stretch. And left-back Milton Valenzuela is coming off an impressive outing in Dallas and is due to find paydirt considering he hasn’t scored since March 24.
All in all, the Black and Gold requires a more robust team effort from an attacking standpoint if this team is to contend for a championship a decade after its first.
