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MLS 2017 Week Three Preview

Week three of the 2017 MLS season brings some intriguing ties, including a battle in Portland between the Timbers and surprising Dynamo.

MLS week three brings another full slate of weekend matches, the last before the crucial CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers next week.

Here are a couple things to watch:

MLS 2017 Week Three Preview

Replacement

Toronto FC, the defending Eastern Conference champions and a consensus favorite for the Supporters’ Shield this year, have two uninspiring draws in two games against Real Salt Lake and Philadelphia. While it’s true that both matches were on the road and they easily could have escaped with a win in at least one of those two games, TFC have yet to look like any kind of world-beater through the first two weeks.

Much of that has been due to a lost connection between Jozy Altidore and Sebastian Giovinco. Those two stars are responsible for creating most of Toronto’s attacking opportunities, and they are usually perfectly capable of doing exactly that. But recently, they haven’t been playing off of each other as well as they usually are able to, and it has hurt TFC’s attack.

One reason they weren’t effective together last week was the play of Philadelphia center back Oguchi Onyewu, who was confident and strong enough to shut down Altidore when he tried to hold up play or run at the backline:

When Altidore couldn’t draw defenders and find space, Giovinco had less room to receive the ball. That meant the Atomic Ant had to drop deep to find possession, and he becomes a lot less Atomic 50 yards from the goal.

His touches were scarce in Philly, because Giovinco is not fond of having to facilitate possession deeper. Without him up top doing the things he does best, TFC are diminished significantly, and Vincent Vasquez wasn’t solving any problems in midfield.

The chart I linked to above was from only the first half, as Giovinco exited in first half stoppage time with a thigh injury. He will be unavailable when Toronto travel to Vancouver on Saturday.

Tosaint Ricketts, a speedy Canadian super-sub, is his likely replacement, and somehow, he could be the spark TFC need to get the front two working again. The reason for this boils down to his differing style of play from Giovinco, and some evidence was found in his second half performance last week.

As we saw last season when Greg Vanney utilized him as a substitute off the bench when they were chasing a game, Ricketts is content to maneuver around the channels and use his speed to burn larger center backs. He will combine around the box, but he prefers to get in behind with crafty runs rather than dictate the pace of an attack like Giovinco.

This could prove effective in a full 90 next to a center forward like Altidore, who will be pressured hard whenever he gets on the ball. A speedy channel runner could prove more effective at quickly finding space in behind, without the frills that Giovinco provides. This is not to diminish anything that the MVP provides, but it is worth noting that Toronto have not scored a goal with Giovinco on the field since the conference semifinal against Montreal.

Ricketts even got on the ball more often in 45 minutes last week in Philly:

Vancouver, who have one point in two games, have a strong-man center back in Kendall Waston, so his matchup with Altidore will be very interesting to watch.

Don’t be surprised if Ricketts goes out and scores a couple Saturday afternoon. Also don’t be surprised if the Whitecaps shut them down, and it turns out that Toronto have some more tactical issues on their hands.

Either could happen.

Rookies

Last season was a banner year for MLS rookies. Jordan Morris, Keegan Rosenberry, and Jack Harrison carved out starting roles, and a number of other players were able to be productive for their teams. Brandon Vincent and Jonathan Campbell were starters on Chicago’s backline. Josh Yaro and Fabian Herbers played 1,000 minutes in Philadelphia. And Tsubasa Endoh, Julian Buescher, Tony Alfaro, and Kip Colvey are all significant depth pieces throughout the league.

It is rare for MLS to see such talent come through the draft across the board. 2015 was solid as well — Cyle Larin, Axel Sjoberg, Fatai Alashe, Cristian Roldan, Saad Abdul-Salaam, and Dominique Badji *in the fourth round* were among the top talents from two years ago.

This year, the draft wasn’t as obviously good, though. There were no surefire stars like Morris or Larin coming through the pipeline, and many down through the draft may not see real playing time for a while. Not to say that there are no potential stars in this crop — it is way, WAY too early to tell — but right now, many teams have not seen enough in their first-year players to justify giving them real minutes.

Julian Gressel is a consistent starter in Atlanta, but he is the only current starter from the entire 2017 SuperDraft class, compared to five last year. While Jakob Nerwinski, Justin Schmidt, and Jacori Hayes also have started games, they did it only because of injuries or necessary squad rotation.

Some of the top players on the board have yet to receive a first team opportunity. Abu Danladi, Jeremy Ebobisse, Jonathan Lewis, and Miles Robinson have rode the bench so far, and even Jackson Yueill (who was expected to get early-season playing time in San Jose) hasn’t had a chance yet.

We don’t know right now whether this is simply a reflection of the class or a sign of MLS teams favoring their own young talent. What we do know is that we have yet to see top-tier rookies emerge from this class, with the possible exception of Gressel.

Keep an eye on this as the weeks go by, because I have no doubt that a few will come about at some point.

Final thoughts

— How sustainable is Atlanta United’s 6-1 thrashing of Minnesota last week? Not very. But Miguel Almiron showing himself to be a capable central creator looks very sustainable. That will make a huge, huge difference for Tata Martino’s side, especially with Josef Martinez up top finishing like Bradley Wright-Phillips.

— Both D.C. United and Columbus Crew SC looked, frankly, terrible last week. The Black and Red were decimated at Yankee Stadium by David Villa and Maxi Morales, and the Crew lost a track meet to the Dynamo relay team/front three. They play this week at RFK, both looking for their first good result of the season.

— The player to watch between Orlando and Philadelphia is Haris Medunjanin, the Union’s Bosnian number eight. He has a wicked right foot that can do things like this:

Medunjanin also has been hitting perfect long balls from the back, creating opportunities Jay Simpson and CJ Sapong had been without, but those aren’t exciting as that pass above.

— San Jose, one of four teams with six points in two games, will be tested on the road for the first time against Sporting KC this week. Look for an appearance from Albanian attacker Jahmir Hyka, who was a dynamic feature last week in the Quakes’ 3-2 victory over Vancouver.

— Two of the other MLS teams with two early season victories will face off late Saturday night in Portland. It will be a big test for the visiting Houston Dynamo, who put together wonderfully entertaining home performances over the past two weeks. I was on the LWOS podcast this week to talk about why they have been able to find success early on, and you can listen here.

— Finally, the national TV game this week is between the Red Bulls and the Sounders on Sunday. Seattle have a draw and a loss in two road games to start the season, which perplexes me given their success last season with Clint Dempsey, Nicolas Lodeiro, and Morris on the field at the same time.

— The Red Bulls have a couple of tight victories against Atlanta and Colorado. They don’t look like Supporters’ Shield champions or anything yet, but I will say that Sean Davis has been great replacing Dax McCarty in defensive midfield, and that 4-2-2-2 looks better than expected.

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