The San Jose Earthquakes currently have 32 points and sit in eighth place in the Western Conference. That puts them five points behind sixth place Portland Timbers for the final postseason spot. If history has taught San Jose anything, it’s that the Quakes will miss the playoffs yet again.
Why the San Jose Earthquakes Will Miss MLS Playoffs
History Shows Earthquakes Will Miss Playoffs
In 2015, San Jose had a brilliant late-August run after a dismal July: five straight wins after an 0-5-1 stretch. However, when the team appeared to be clicking at the right time, they pulled an improbable 0-2-2 against three teams with worse records, and the Seattle Sounders. Three of those four games were at home. That stretch killed San Jose’s momentum and the Quakes never recovered.
In 2016, despite an overhaul of the roster and head coach Dom Kinnear‘s second season of building his team, not much has changed. The Quakes were riding a five game points-scoring streak going into early August. But in an all-too-familiar four game stretch, the Quakes repeated 2015: an 0-2-2 record against teams with worse records (including Seattle) with three of those games at home. The Quakes playoff momentum came to a screeching halt.
A Difficult Finish
The Quakes must now play four of their final seven games on the road. The Quakes’ overall road record is 1-6-6, which gives San Jose a road points-per-game average of 0.69–nine points out of 13 matches.
To make matters worse, two of those four matches are against the Colorado Rapids. The Quakes have the worst offense in the West: 27 goals in 27 games, a 1.0 goals per game average while the Rapids boast the best defense in the league: 24 goals allowed in 27 matches. Furthermore, the Rapids are currently undefeated at home (9-0-4). In order for San Jose to make the playoffs, they will need to find a way for their impotent offense to break through Colorado’s stellar defense on the road, twice.
Finally, all of the games San Jose will play are against opponents that currently have more points: Colorado (twice), Real Salt Lake, Sporting KC (twice), Vancouver, and Montreal. Not only must San Jose play on the road for most of these matches, they must also play opponents that are above them in the standings. If you listen carefully, you can hear the fat lady warming up her voice on San Jose’s season.
But It Might Not Be Over Yet
There is a ray of light for the Earthquakes. The Timbers have an even worse road record (0-8-6) and must play three of their final five games on the road. If Portland goes winless on the road (and that’s a big “if” considering two of the teams they play currently sit below them in the overall standings and they are probably a better team than their road record indicates), and the Quakes manage to get back into the win column, they could draw even with Portland and let tiebreaks decide the sixth and final playoff spot.
In order for the Quakes to make the playoffs, they need to win on the road and hope Portland continues their road woes. If either of these fail to happen, it will be another season in which San Jose fails to see the postseason.
