The 2020 NFL Draft is fast approaching and, once again, much of the interest and speculation is focused on quarterbacks. In a year that is littered with question marks, one of the few outcomes that feels like a certainty is the Cincinnati Bengals making LSU quarterback Joe Burrow the first overall selection of the extravaganza.
Burrow is coming off one of the single greatest campaigns any collegiate passer has ever enjoyed, winning both a National Championship and a Heisman Trophy, throwing for 5,671 yards, 60 touchdowns, and only six interceptions, and leading the Tigers to an undefeated season in the process. Once an afterthought as a prospect, Burrow looks the part of a true franchise signal caller and seems like a veritable lock to have his name called at the top of the draft.
But after that, the guessing game begins.
NFL Draft Quarterbacks Face Much Uncertainty
For a large portion of the season, Tua Tagovailoa was regarded as the top quarterback draft prospect, with fan bases around the country clamoring for their struggling franchises to “Tank for Tua”. Indeed, the Alabama standout was in the midst of a remarkable season and was receiving favorable comparisons to future Hall of Famer Drew Brees. It doesn’t get much more complimentary than that.
However, ll of that excitement came crashing down during a mid-November contest against Mississippi State, when Tagovailoa sustained a gruesome hip dislocation that ended his brilliant season on the spot. While Tagovailoa had still been remarkable during his junior campaign with 2,840 passing yards, 33 passing scores, only three picks, and a completion percentage of 71.4 in less than nine full games of action, serious questions now surrounded his football future. After multiple ankle procedures and such a serious hip injury, some questioned if he could ever be the same player again.
Fortunately, as the off-season has progressed there has been nothing but positive news in regards to his recovery. Glowing reports are constantly emerging about the health of his hip and he seems very likely to be a top pick on draft day. While he’s not going to reclaim the top spot from Burrow, he seems destined to hear his name called shortly thereafter. But by whom?
A Competitor Emerges
Meanwhile, there’s another presumptive top pick who remains a significant part of this equation. Oregon signal caller Justin Herbert has had an interesting path to this moment in his own right. Regarded as a potential first overall pick a year ago, Herbert made the decision to return to college for his senior season, which seemed like a calculated risk at the time.
Herbert’s 2020 was met with mixed reviews, but he strengthened his draft stock quite a bit with an offensive MVP performance in the Rose Bowl and a strong showing at the Senior Bowl. In spite of his impressive arm talent and athleticism, Herbert still seemed like a certainty to be the third quarterback off the board on April 23rd, but that isn’t necessarily the case anymore. In fact, there have been some whispers that some teams might actually prefer Herbert over Tagovailoa, which is definitely something of a surprise considering where things stood as recently as a week ago.
The Trade Down Candidates
So how will this all play out? Frankly, the amount of moving pieces at the top of this draft is absolutely staggering. Assuming Burrow goes off the board first overall, the questions begin immediately. The Washington Redskins have the second overall selection, and just spent a first-rounder on former Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins a year ago. However, Haskins’ performance was less than stellar as a rookie. On top of that, team president Bruce Allen was ousted during the off-season and former head coach Jay Gruden (who was reportedly never a fan of Haskins’ anyway) was fired during the 2019 NFL campaign.
New head coach Ron Rivera could want to install his own starter, rather than roll with Haskins. Would he be interested in a reunion with Cam Newton? Could he consider Tagovailoa or Herbert with the second pick? Most mock drafts have Washington staying put and selecting Ohio State pass rusher Chase Young in that slot, but is a potential trade down with a quarterback-needy team like the Miami Dolphins or the Los Angeles Chargers a possibility? The potential outcomes here are endless and we’re only two picks deep into the draft.
Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions await this decision in the third draft slot. In spite of all the speculation about the Lions wanting to move on from Matthew Stafford this off-season (which seemed crazy, to be honest), those rumors were emphatically shot down by team brass, and the organization looks ready to roll with the 12th-year man in 2020. Drafting a quarterback third overall when you have a $27 million signal caller already on the roster and a head coach and general manager fighting for their jobs makes absolutely no sense, so this is where the fun begins.
The Lions would likely love to see Washington either draft a quarterback or trade back with a team that covets one, because this would mean that the aforementioned Young, seen by most as the best prospect in the draft, would be there for the taking. However, since Washington snagging him with the second pick still stands as the most likely outcome, the Lions will probably consider a trade down. Moving back a few spots and still securing a prospect like Jeff Okudah, Isaiah Simmons, or Derrick Brown would be an ideal scenario if Young is off the board and as such, at the moment, Detroit’s third pick certainly looks in play for a potential trade back.
Meanwhile, the New York Giants hold the fourth overall pick and appear to be all in on Daniel Jones in his sophomore campaign. The sixth overall pick from 2019 struggled with turnovers as a rookie but showed enough promise that the teams appears ready to build around him. While they aren’t mentioned often in trade scenarios, it would be a mistake to rule them out altogether.
The Potential Landing Spots
The Dolphins, of course, hold the fifth overall selection and are followed by the Chargers in the six-slot. Neither of these teams emerges without a quarterback in the majority of mock drafts these days, but that’s all speculation. Will Tagovailoa and Herbert end up with these franchises? It’s possible, but it’s also conceivable that they both covet the same player and aren’t interested in a fall-back option. It’s also uncertain how much either team would be willing to part with in a potential trade up to guarantee obtaining said player.
If only one of these teams drafts a quarterback, his peer could experience a significant slide. The Carolina Panthers are a possibility at pick eight, but they just signed Teddy Bridgewater and look ready to roll with him for at least the next season. The Arizona Cardinals, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, and New York Jets are next in line and each of them appears committed to a young quarterback of their own.
The Las Vegas Raiders in the 12th spot could be a sleeper since the team seems to waffle about its commitment to Derek Carr, but that still seems like a bit of a long shot. The next teams up are the San Francisco 49ers, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Denver Broncos, the Atlanta Falcons, and the Dallas Cowboys. No chance in that group at all.
Of course, there are plenty of opportunities for teams to move up and get their player, but the point remains that outside the top six or seven picks, there really isn’t a clear destination for a quarterback. At this point, all of this is just rumor and speculation, but that’s genuinely half the fun of draft season.
Prognostications are usually way off base, and all it takes is one surprising decision to throw all logic out the window. What is certain is that there are three quarterbacks who sit at the top of the heap in 2020. While the future looks all but set for one of them, the events of April 23rd will determine the path that his two peers will take in dramatic fashion.
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