Two very different teams will be sharing the spotlight when the Green Bay Packers (11-3) Minnesota Vikings (10-4) meet at US Bank Stadium for Monday Night Football. Kirk Cousins is playing the best football of his career as the Vikings try to steal the North crown. Aaron Rodgers, despite a 24:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, has not been at his best, and neither has the offense. The Packers boast the league’s 21st-ranked offense. Even their defense, with all of their praise, is still ranked 23rd. Compare this with the Vikings, who rank 10th in offense and 14th in defense, and it’s hard to see how these two teams have gotten to this point. The Packers still control the division if they lose Monday, so how have they managed to keep the Vikings in the rear-view mirror this season?
Winning Ugly Gives the Green Bay Packers the Division Edge Over the Minnesota Vikings
Protecting the Football
The first thing that the Packers have done to preserve wins is not turning the ball over. It sounds like a no-brainer, but 14 games into the season, Green Bay has the second-fewest turnovers in the league with nine. In the nine games that the Packers have not turned the ball over, they are 8-1. In the five games where they have lost the ball, they are 3-2.
Meanwhile, the Vikings have turned the ball over 16 times in 14 games, eighth-best in the NFL. In the six games that Minnesota has managed to not turn the ball over, they are 5-1. However, in the eight games that they do turn the ball over, they are 5-3. While it isn’t surprising that teams with less turnovers win more, the Packers are setting themselves up for success by not turning the ball over as often as the Vikings.
Taking the Ball Away
Not turning the ball over is one thing. Creating turnovers on defense is what will change games for teams with offenses that can capitalize. And taking the ball away is as important to the Packers success as anything this season. When they turned the ball over twice earlier in the season against the Vikings, Green Bay’s defense still forced four turnovers to win the turnover battle that day.
As a whole, the Packers have forced turnovers a total of 23 turnovers and those turnovers have been forced in 10 of the Packers 14 games. The Packers are 10-0 when forcing turnovers in 2019 (the Vikings are 10-3). Do the math, and they’re 1-3 when not forcing a turnover (the Vikings are 0-1). Even their lone victory was a controversial 23-22 Monday Night Football game against the Detroit Lions that many believed was the result of poor officiating. Needless to say, the games where the Packers are forcing turnovers also happen to be the games where they happen to be protecting the football as well.
Grinding Out Victories by Winning Ugly
Minnesota doesn’t only hold the advantage in league rankings across the board. The stat that matters most, points, is also heavily in their favor. The Vikings have scored 48 more points than the Packers while giving up 24 fewer points than their rivals. Minnesota has lost only one game by more than one score. The Packers, meanwhile, have lost two games by more than one score, and this somewhat skews their overall point differential (a 37-8 loss to the San Fransisco 49ers most notable).
But the Vikings haven’t fared as well in the one-score games. With a tally of 2-3, they have left important wins on the table. The Packers, meanwhile, are 7-1 in such games, with four of those wins coming within the division.
The biggest win, of course, was their week two victory referenced earlier against, you guessed it, the Vikings. And the interception thrown by Kirk Cousins in the endzone to Packers cornerback Kevin King essentially ended what would have been a 21-point comeback. Instead, the Packers, who jumped out to a 21-point lead in the first quarter, held on for dear life as the Vikings defense pressured Rodgers and didn’t give up any more points along the way. The Vikings, with the Packers on their heels, gave the game away in what ended up putting Green Bay in the NFC North driver’s seat for the rest of the season.
A victory on Monday night would give the Vikings a signature win on the season and provide a small glimmer of a chance to win the NFC North. A loss, at home, where they haven’t lost all season, would secure the Packers division title and No. 3 spot in the NFC playoffs. Over three months have passed since Green Bay stole an ugly victory at Lambeau Field. The Vikings would love to look great on a national stage to give their team legitimacy. Maybe they should look across the border and just take a victory any way they can get it.
