There is no question that the Oakland Raiders are walking a fine line with their 9-2 record. They have the second-worst point differential of any team that started 9-2 in the first 11 games. That doesn’t mean that this 9-2 record is a fluke. The Raiders have shown experience and poise in close games which has led to wins.
Last year, this team couldn’t win those close games. Now, Derek Carr has improved even more, and the Raiders have a great amount of talent for him to work with. The Buffalo Bills are 6-5, fighting to reach the playoffs, and want to win this game very badly. The Raiders need to do what it takes to close this game out so they can focus on the upcoming divisional battles.
Oakland Raiders Week 13 Keys to Victory
Stop that Big Play
The “big play” is the biggest key to this matchup. The big play is one of the several ways a game’s momentum can change from one team to the other. The Bills are third in the league in big plays with 67 for the year. 51 of those came off from the run, which is second in the league. The Raiders defense has been the weakness of this team. Their defense is the reason that there are so many close games that Carr and the offense have to grind out. However, the defense has started to step up, and is tenth in total defense in recent weeks.
LeSean McCoy is fast. He is still fast despite his climbing age, and he continues to produce each week. Bruce Irvin has been good against the run and Khalil Mack is the best edge run defender in the NFL. Those two containing the outside will be huge in preventing McCoy from bouncing outside of his tackles, down the sidelines for big gains. The middle of that defense will be tested. Defensive tackles Stacy McGee and Darius Latham are out and middle linebacker Perry Riley Jr. is coming off of a hamstring injury. The middle has to be strong, otherwise McCoy will cut through them.
The other players the Raiders need to worry about are Tyrod Taylor and his speedy wide receivers. Sammy Watkins saw the field for the first time last week since he went on the Injured Reserve list after the Thursday night game against the New York Jets. With cornerback DJ Hayden heading to the IR, that leaves the Raiders with few of their regular cornerbacks. Sean Smith is still there and playing well, and David Amerson continues to be great, but is coming off of an injury that kept him out against the Carolina Panthers.
After those two, the cornerback depth is thin. TJ Carrie is the only notable corner left with a lot of experience, and he was burned a few times against the Panthers which helped them mount their comeback. The secondary cannot give up too many big receptions. It’s very likely that a big play in the air does happen, but limiting it to as few as possible is crucial to winning this game.
Pummel the Bills in the Trenches
The trenches is where this game will be won. The Bills have a good offensive line that has led them to the number one rushing attack in the league. The Raiders defensive front seven has to step up and make plays. Khalil Mack has sacked the opposing quarterback in six straight games and is tied for sixth in the league with nine quarterback takedowns. The Bills have 31 sacks on the year, tied for fifth-most. Irvin and Mack need to get pressure on Taylor, and you can bet that they will do everything they can to make that happen.
On the other side, the Raiders offensive line just needs to keep doing what they’re doing in pass protection. Donald Penn is the only left tackle in the NFL that hasn’t allowed a sack this year. The Raiders have given up the least quarterback hits and sacks of any other team. The offensive line is big, mean, and nasty, but athletic at the same time. They need to be on their top game against the Bills pass rush who are second in the league with 33 sacks. The Bills pass rush is quick and dangerous. Sacks are drive killers and in this game, and that battle will be huge.
Finally, it is extremely important to establish the run. The earlier the better. The Bills don’t have a great run defense. The Raiders should feed running back Latavius Murray and the rest of that running game crew early and often. With success in the running game, this will ease the pressure on Carr who will already be trying his best to play well with that injured pinky that he suffered against the Panthers. He will wear a glove again in this game.
Take the Ball, Don’t Give it Away
It is imperative the Raiders win the turnover battle. Carr threw an interception almost immediately after coming back onto the field with a glove on his hand to protect his pinky last week. He became more comfortable after that, and has had a whole week to prepare and get more used to throwing with a glove on his hand. However, for a player that doesn’t wear a glove, and has spent countless days and hours throwing the ball without one, it is a cause for concern. There might be times that having the glove might cause Carr to have an errant throw or two, so he has to be careful. Turning the ball over will not lead to any success against the Bills.
The Raiders are ranked third in giveaway/takeaway differential. The Bills are fourth. Both teams do a good job of taking care of the ball. Tyrod Taylor has only thrown four interceptions on the year. LeSean Mccoy and Taylor have six fumbles just between the two of them, but the Bills have only lost two fumbles on the year. The Raiders have taken the ball away from the other team 19 times and coughed it up just nine times. Whoever wins the turnover margin is likely to win the game.
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