Since the 2000 season, there have only been two Super Bowls that didn’t include either Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Ben Roethlisberger. Some can argue their teams were just good, but that’s silly. Brady’s New England Patriots and Roethlisberger’s Pittsburgh Steelers have transformed a thousand times over the last sixteen years. And as for Manning? He actually switched teams and played in two Super Bowls for two franchises. So it’s obvious that if you want to succeed in the NFL, you need a franchise quarterback.
Where do you find a franchise quarterback? It’s obviously a problem or every team would have one. Sure, occasionally someone like Manning or Drew Brees becomes a free agent, but that’s rare. The next logical option is to turn to the draft. Obviously, the first round is where the best players are, so that’s the best place to get a franchise quarterback, right? Maybe not.
The Problem With First Round Quarterbacks
This weekend, Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams will make his first NFL start. After being selected with the first overall pick in the draft, head coach Jeff Fisher and the Rams decided to let Goff develop on the bench. After a 4-5 start, Fisher decided to see what the rookie can do.
Goff will join 18 other starting quarterbacks that were selected in the first round. That means that nearly 60% of starting quarterbacks in the NFL were first-round picks. However, if you remove the likes of Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler, and Alex Smith, who no longer play for the team that selected them in the first round, the number flips. Without those guys, only about 44% of first round quarterbacks are helping the team that selected them.
But, then again, you have to consider that there are seven rounds, and none of the other six rounds have a 44% success rate. On the surface, it looks like your best bet is to take a quarterback in the first round. After all, the NFL Draft is such a crap-shoot that most coaches would kill for a 44% chance that a guy becomes a consistent contributor.
Quantity vs. Quality
First Is the Worst?
Sure, the list of first round quarterbacks include the likes of Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck, but there are some ugly names on that list too. Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill have spent most of their careers being perfectly adequate passers. Cutler and Bradford have been absolutely terrible. They’ve had flashes, but between the two of them, they have one 4,000 yard season and zero seasons with thirty touchdowns or more.
And then there are players that haven’t proven themselves yet. The likes of Goff, Carson Wentz, Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota, and Jameis Winston are still young. The odds of all five quarterbacks becoming elite passers in the NFL are slim-to-none. Fans of the Jacksonville Jaguars have already turned on Bortles after a truly abysmal 2016.
That’s not to say they’re all bad. Obviously the likes of Matt Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Newton, Roethlisberger and Luck are among the best in football. Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Palmer are all very good as well. And frankly, it’s not like all of the late-round guys are heroes either.
Second Round or Second Rate?
Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, and Colin Kaepernick? There’s a reason that they weren’t taken in the first round. And just like there are some questionable first round picks, the likes of Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, Dak Prescott, and Cody Kessler might not be destined for greatness.
However, there are some guys you’ve probably heard of that were taken after pick 32. Drew Brees is going to break all of the passing records, Kirk Cousins is proving last year was no fluke, Russell Wilson has already been to two Super Bowls, and Derek Carr is on fire. Oh, and this guy named Tom Brady. He’s pretty good too.
Rings
Over the aforementioned span of 16 years, the numbers are a little confusing. Guys drafted in the second round or later have won seven Super Bowls. Guys who were drafted in the first round? They’ve won nine. However, only seven came while on the team that drafted them*. Trent Dilfer was drafted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1994, but he won the Super Bowl as a Baltimore Ravens in 2000. The other championship? Obviously Peyton Manning’s 2015 Lombardi win as a member of the Denver Broncos.
So as far as getting a return on your investment is concerned, where they’re drafted is a non-factor. You’re just as likely to draft a Super Bowl winner in the first round as you are any other round. Ultimately, it’s a team game, and as players like Archie Manning can attest, the best quarterbacks in the world can’t do it without help. So championships aren’t going to decide this argument.
*Obviously not including the Philip Rivers/Eli Manning trade.
Stats
Stats are funny. They rarely tell the whole story, but they often help with the setting. The easiest way to rank the statistical achievements of quarterbacks, or players in general is through Pro Football Focus. So without much further ado, here are the top ten quarterbacks this season according to PFF.
1. Tom Brady (95.1 Grade) Sixth-Round Pick.
2. Matt Ryan (90.0 Grade) First-Round Pick.
3. Andrew Luck (88.9 Grade) First-Round Pick.
4. Russell Wilson (88.7 Grade) Third-Round Pick.
5. Drew Brees (87.3 Grade) Second-Round Pick.
6. Derek Carr (86.8 Grade) Second-Round Pick.
7. Cam Newton (86.8 Grade) First-Round Pick.
8. Carson Wentz (85.1 Grade) First-Round Pick.
9. Matthew Stafford (84.7 Grade) First-Round Pick.
10. Andy Dalton (84.5 Grade) Second-Round Pick.
So, of the top ten quarterbacks in football this year (according to PFF), half weren’t first round picks. In fact, if you don’t trust PFF and you just check quarterback rating, the numbers are consistent. Of the top ten quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts, five were still drafted in the second round or later.
1. Tom Brady (125.5) Sixth-Round Pick.
2. Matt Ryan (115.1) First-Round Pick.
3. Drew Brees (106.4) Second-Round Pick.
4. Dak Prescott (106.2) Fourth-Round Pick.
5. Matthew Stafford (101.6) First-Round Pick.
6. Sam Bradford (99.9) First-Round Pick*.
7. Marcus Mariota (99.6) First-Round Pick.
8. Russell Wilson (99.4) Third-Round Pick.
9. Derek Carr (99.1) Second-Round Pick.
10. Ben Roethlisberger (98.8) First-Round Pick.
*Though again, he plays for the Minnesota Vikings now, despite being drafted by the St. Louis Rams.
Heads or Tails
Depending on which side of the coin you find yourself on, there are players you can point to. In fact, in almost every situation, there’s a perfect match. How can you possibly argue against a first round quarterback when Peyton Manning dominated for almost twenty years? You bring up that Tom Brady was a sixth-round pick. Cam Newton was a first-round pick and he changed the game of football? So did Russell Wilson. Andrew Luck is the future of the quarterback position? Tell that to Derek Carr.
Though honestly, that’s what decides the argument. Many players can come and go without hurting their team too badly. This isn’t true for quarterbacks. If a quarterback is bad, he can set the team back several years. Don’t believe it, just ask the Oakland Raiders.
The Worst of the Best
In 2007, the Oakland Raiders had the first overall pick. This is a draft that included the likes of Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Darrelle Revis, and Eric Weddle. Who did the Raiders select? LSU quarterback, JaMarcus Russell.
It’s hard to forget Russell, not because he was “Elway-esque” as Mel Kiper predicted,but because he might have been the worst quarterback of all time. Now, it’s not fair to blame Russell for all of Oakland’s failures. They missed on several other draft picks, were in the midst of a salary cap catastrophe, and had some dreadful coaches.
But, he did make it much harder for the Raiders to return to greatness. Russell’s rookie contract was for six years and $61,000,000, with $32,000,000 guaranteed. Russell would go on to throw for 4,083 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions. You might say that those numbers aren’t bad for a rookie season, and you wouldn’t be wrong. The problem is that those aren’t seasonal numbers; those are his career totals.
In 31 starts, Russell only averaged 132 yards and an interception a game. He was an absolute nightmare for the Raiders, and when you look at the players they could’ve had instead, it makes the Raider Nation cringe. Bleacher Report said the 2007 NFL draft was the best in 25 years… and the Raiders took the worst quarterback in history.
In Summation
Some will see how similar the stats and results are between a first round quarterback and someone that was taken later and say taking a passer in round one is still the right call. And that’s their right; there’s no question that many first round quarterbacks are Hall of Famers.
However, when you see how many great quarterbacks are available in the other six rounds, shouldn’t the first round have significantly more stars? Shouldn’t the first round produce at least one stud quarterback a year? It should, but it doesn’t. Because ultimately, even the safest prospects can be busts.
So while every prospect, let alone draft class is unique, perhaps there’s a trend that NFL scouts should beware of. If you don’t completely love a quarterback prospect in the first round, it’s okay to pass on them. The best general managers in the game believe in drafting the best player available instead of reaching for a need. If quarterback is your need, maybe the answer is waiting in the later rounds.
