It’s time to put Week five behind and move forward to the NFL Week six predictions.
Last week Nostrathomas went 9-5 straight up but just picking the winner is never the challenge on an NFL weekend. The Seer of Sayers went 5-10-1 against the spread, including one “over” win and one push.
That puts Nostrathomas at 6-7-2 on his top picks, 25-34-2 against the spread and 34-23-1 straight up. Still, you know what they say about falling off the bicycle a couple of times. Take a sledgehammer, pound that mother into a twisted mass of metal and buy a new bike. With that in mind, here are Nostrathomas’ NFL Week six predictions.
NFL Week Six Predictions
NFL Week Six Headline Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots -3.5 (Sunday Night Football, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA)
Two weeks ago the Miami Dolphins had their chance to knock off the rulers of the AFC East and failed miserably. On Sunday night the steamrolling Kansas City Chiefs get their chance to knock the AFC bullies off their perch. This game is going to be exciting without laying money on either side of the spread. The 13 earlier games this Sunday are just appetizers for this one. If you’re not watching these two teams do battle, turn in your NFL fan card.
Last week Nostrathomas said that the Achilles heel for this Kansas City team was an opponent who could keep up on offense but also play defense. The Jacksonville Jaguars failed in that last week as the Chiefs lit up the Jags superior defense for 30 points. The New England Patriots are a different story though.
After their Week three, Sunday night embarrassment at the hands of the Detroit Lions, New England has lit up their last two opponents for 38 points each. Tom Brady has thrown for 615 yards and six touchdowns in those smack-downs. Now he gets to target Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon and company against one of the weakest secondaries in the league.
Don’t Discount the Rookie Sharpshooter
Patrick Mahomes has already shown that the glare of the prime time lights has no affect on him. He wowed a Sunday night audience two weeks ago by bringing Kansas City back from a 23-13 fourth-quarter deficit on the road against the Denver Broncos.
Mahomes is fifth in the NFL in passer rating and leads the league with ten touchdown passes. He’s also one of the best at quarterback at taking care of the ball. The Chiefs are second in the league in negative pass play percentage on offense (sacks plus interceptions divided by drop backs). Only 4.4 percent of the time will an opponent generate a negative play out of a Mahomes drop back.
The Chiefs are on a nine game winning streak straight up and against the spread. New England is 3-0 against the spread at home so far this season and 11-3 against the spread in their last 14 at home.
Still, Nostrathomas picks them all so he’s going to do what every other self respecting NFL prognosticator is going to do, flip a coin and misread the result.
The Patriots play better defense. If you must play this game to catch up on Sunday losses take New England to win and cover.
New England Patriots 36 Kansas City Chiefs 33
Top Three NFL Week Six Bets
Seattle Seahawks -2.5 vs Oakland Raiders (1 PM ET, London)
This is the Seattle Seahawks first trip across the pond to play a game. The Oakland Raiders played in London in 2014, losing to Miami 38-14.
There’s various reasons to want to pick Seattle in this game. On offense, the Raiders are seventh in yards but 23rd in points scored. They average 19.2 yards of offense to score one point. That multiplies out to 134.4 yards per every seven points. Having to drive over the length of a football field to put up a touchdown is why the Raiders are 1-4 so far.
Oakland also doesn’t have the one defensive key that it takes to defeat Russell Wilson. They lack a pass rush against an offensive line that forces Wilson to run for his life quite a bit. Wilson on the run is still one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Give him time in the pocket and he’ll pick Gruden the Elder’s team apart.
One more element of this game to look at is how teams prepare to handle the time difference and disrupted sleep schedules when playing a game in London. The Seahawks made the 11-hour flight on Wednesday with a plan for the players to be able to get a full night of sleep Thursday and be back in their routine. Oakland left late Thursday night and the players are likely to still be shaking off jet lag come game time. Take Pete Carroll’s team to best Jon Gruden‘s sleepy squad and cover the spread.
Seattle Seahawks 30 Oakland Raiders 19
Chicago Bears -3.5 vs Miami Dolphins (1 PM ET, Hard Rock Stadium; Miami, FL)
The Chicago Bears are coming off their bye week after Mitch Trubisky’s Week four coming out party against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Dolphins are back home after getting blown out in Week four in a measuring stick game against the New England Patriots and taking a loss last week on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals after taking a 17-3 lead into the fourth quarter.
It’s doubtful that the Bears offense will reach the stratospheric heights that it did two weeks ago when Trubisky threw six touchdown passes but it doesn’t have to. Chicago’s defense is becoming more formidable by the week.
Currently, the Bears defense creates a negative pass play (sack or interception) on 16.8 percent of opposing quarterback drop backs, best by far in the league. There will also be blood in the water for Khalil Mack and company to close on. Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill showed up on the Dolphins injury report Friday afternoon as questionable. Brock Osweiler is his backup.
This spread may go up to -4 by game time with the money currently coming in on the Bears. Still, take the road favorite to win and cover if you can get the game at -3.5.
Chicago Bears 26 Miami Dolphins 22
Carolina Panthers -1 vs Washington Redskins (1 PM ET, FedEx Field; Washington, D.C.)
The Carolina Panthers are another case where defense travels. The number five team in Nostrathomas’ power rankings takes on Gruden the Younger’s squad coming off a short week after getting pantsed by the New Orleans Saints, 43-19.
The Panthers have won five straight games in this series and have two key players coming back to their starting lineup. Linebacker Thomas Davis will be back from a four game suspension and tight end Greg Olsen is reportedly now healthy and has been participating in practice this week. Quarterback Cam Newton having Olsen to pair with multi-talented Christian McCaffrey is enough to keep the Carolina train rolling.
Carolina Panthers 26 Washington Redskins 19
A Quick Look At the Best of the Rest
San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers -9.5 (Monday Night Football, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI)
This game doesn’t shape up to be as close as originally expected. The San Francisco 49ers had eight offensive starters sidelined for Thursday’s practice.
The Green Bay Packers offense has struggled, failing to put up a 30-point game so far this season, but their defense has been tough. They have a top-ten front seven and rarely give up deep completions when opposing quarterbacks are able to throw.
Take Green Bay to put up their first 30-point effort of the season against a walking wounded 49ers team.
Green Bay Packers 32 San Francisco 49ers 17
Los Angeles Chargers vs Cleveland Browns -1 (1 PM ET, FirstEnergy Stadium; Cleveland, OH)
The Cleveland Browns have played three overtime games so far in 2018. Their point differential through five games is +1. The Los Angeles Chargers better be ready for a slugfest.
Two things the Browns do exceedingly well are stop the run and force opponents to generate a lot of yardage to score points.
Philip Rivers has done a great job this season of keeping Los Angeles competitive but the Dawg Pound is barking again.
Cleveland Browns 22 Los Angeles Chargers 20
Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals, Over 50.5 (1 PM ET, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH)
Cincinnati is flying high over the AFC North but historically the Pittsburgh Steelers tend to treat Paul Brown Stadium as their home away from home.
Pittsburgh is 18-7-1 in their last 25 games against the Bengals. The Steelers are also 16-4-2 against the spread in their last 22 in Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger feels so comfortable there that he plans on buying a condo at Paul Brown Stadium when he retires. Also, take the “over” on the ridiculously low point total.
Pittsburgh Steelers 33 Cincinnati Bengals 30
Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans -10 (1 PM ET, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX)
Deshaun Watson has already declared himself ready to play against the Buffalo Bills despite injured ribs. The Texans also have J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney raising their games over the past two weeks.
It’s tough for a 2-3 team to crack a ten-point nut but the Houston Texans are at home and Nostrathomas just can’t see the Bills winning this game.
Houston Texans 25 Buffalo Bills 13
Los Angeles Rams -7 vs Denver Broncos (4:05 PM ET, Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, CO)
The Los Angeles Rams barely scraped past Seattle last week. In Denver the bloom is quickly fading off the Case Keenum rose.
Los Angeles Rams 32 Denver Broncos 18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons -3 (1 PM ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium; Atlanta, GA)
Jameis Winston is back as the starting quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the Bucs come off their bye week. However, that is not going to fix their horrid defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have won three straight against Tampa Bay. Their offense is still dangerous and will stretch that streak to four.
Arizona Cardinals vs Minnesota Vikings -10 (1 PM ET, U.S. Bank Stadium; Minneapolis, MN)
Even in a 28-18 victory last week, the Arizona Cardinals defense faced 92 plays. The fact it was against the San Francisco 49ers is the only thing that saved them.
If the Cardinals offense can’t stay on the field against the Minnesota Vikings defense it’s a sure bet the Vikings won’t let them get away with it.
Minnesota Vikings 27 Arizona Cardinals 10
Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets -2 (1 PM ET, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ)
Sam Darnold has been the rookie quarterback the Giants needed this season. Unfortunately for them it was the New York Jets who decided to lay their chips behind the quarterback from USC.
For the Indianapolis Colts, Andrew Luck has been filling the air with footballs the past couple of weeks, but with little success. In this game he will be without receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Jack Doyle. That is devastating for the Colts who have little to count on in the running game.
New York Jets 24 Indianapolis Colts 19
Baltimore Ravens -2.5 vs Tennessee Titans (1 PM ET, Nissan Stadium; Nashville, TN)
The question with this game is going to be who will show up to play. Both teams have driven Nostrathomas to drink (more) by their play this season.
Statistically, the Baltimore Ravens are the better team on both sides of the ball. Their weakness in running the ball is what has kept them from matching the Bengals at the top of the division.
In this game Nostrathomas is siding with the better quarterback. So far in 2018, that has been Joe Flacco.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys +3 (4:25 ET PM, AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX)
This is a match-up between the other two teams that have had Nostrathomas draining kegs this season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have struggled on the road. The Dallas Cowboys two wins have been at home. This is Dallas’ third home game of the season. Take the Cowboys plus the points.
Dallas Cowboys 18 Jacksonville Jaguars 16
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