Three weeks into the fantasy football season is too early for many things. It’s too early to take victory laps for managers who are doing well. More importantly, it’s too early to go into full-on panic mode about a rough start. We’ve all heard the saying that fantasy football championships aren’t won on draft day. Roster management extends beyond knowing which players to start and which to bench. It’s managing trades and the waiver wire appropriately. It’s also about recognizing a player that is emerging as a viable fantasy asset.
Three weeks in is enough time to begin to notice trends and speculate on production. It can often be a double-edged sword to overreact to positive or negative play. That being said, if Geronimo Allison is still on waivers in your league, you’re doing it wrong.
Geronimo Allison Emerging In Fantasy Football
Green Bay Packers third-year wide receiver Geronimo Allison is making some noise in Cheese Head Country. Through the first three weeks, the former undrafted free-agent is leading his team in receiving yards with 209 and has two touchdowns.
The 6’3” wideout worked his way from the practice squad three seasons ago before making the starting roster. It’s worth noting that for the last three seasons, the Packers have had a different wide receiver lead the team in receiving yards. In 2015 it was James Jones, 2016 was Jordy Nelson, and 2017 was Davante Adams. While it’s too early to make that call for 2018, Allison looks to be supplanting Randall Cobb for the consistent number-two role.
Fantasy Production
Through the first three games, we have seen Allison’s targets decrease. However, the yardage numbers in those games have not tracked downward. In Week One, he finished with five receptions on eight targets for 69 yards and one touchdown. The following week, he was perfect six-for-six for 64 yards. In Week Three, he caught two passes for 76 yards and one score.
Through those first three games, he’s commanding a 14.8 percent target share for the Packers. While this number is super high, he’s been efficient with the targets he’s received. During those same three games, we’ve seen Cobb struggle with ball control. Rodgers is boasting a perfect passer rating when targeting Allison.
Fantasy Outlook
Allison is averaging six targets and 69 yards per game. This provides a safe floor for fantasy owners while also providing some touchdown upside. Taking a look into some of the more advanced metrics, he’s doing well in both separation (2.11) and contested catch rate (100 percent), per Playerprofiler.com.
Week four’s matchup is against the Buffalo Bills looks to a good game for Allison. Randall Cobb has drawn the questionable tag. The Bills top corner, Tre’Davious White, will likely be on Adams throughout the majority of the game. This leaves either Ryan Lewis or Phillip Gaines in coverage for Allison. Neither is overly concerning for Allison. With Rodgers battling a knee injury, expect him to stay in the pocket.
Last Word on Allison
The waiver wire has been fairly bountiful with wide receiver talent. Allison is a solid PPR option that is only owned in 44 percent of Yahoo! leagues. This is criminally underwhelming. Any relevant wide receiver in a system led by Rodgers should be more owned. With Allison edging towards taking full command of the number-two receiver position he should be claimed before he has a huge blowup week and everyone rushes to snag him.
Moving forward, Allison should be considered a weekly WR3/Flex option with WR2 upside in PPR formats, and a solid WR3 with touchdown upside in standard leagues. This week would also be a great matchup for DFS plays.
